If you’ve spent any time tracking how much money movies make—or why certain blockbusters crash and burn—you know the name Scott Mendelson. For a decade, he was the guy at Forbes who turned math into drama. Then, in late 2022, he made a massive jump. He joined The Wrap as a senior film reporter.
It felt like a tectonic shift in the industry. For years, Mendelson was the lone wolf of box office punditry, writing thousands of words on why John Wick succeeded or why The Last Jedi wasn't actually a failure. Seeing "Scott Mendelson The Wrap" in a byline was like seeing a star player traded to a rival team.
But things didn't stay that way forever.
The Short, Sharp Era of Scott Mendelson at The Wrap
Mendelson’s tenure at The Wrap was a blitz. He brought his signature style: hyper-analytical, deeply skeptical of "franchise fatigue" as a concept, and obsessed with the theatrical window. He wasn't just reporting numbers. He was fighting a war for the soul of the cinema experience.
He got there exactly when the industry was reeling from the pandemic’s aftershocks. Wall Street was suddenly falling out of love with streaming-only strategies. Mendelson thrived in this chaos. He wrote about how Imax and Warner Bros. were pivoting back to theaters. He broke down why Disney's sequels were still the backbone of the industry, even when "superhero fatigue" became the buzzword of the week.
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Honestly, his work at The Wrap was some of his most refined. He had more resources. He was collaborating with heavy hitters like Umberto Gonzalez and Drew Taylor. Yet, if you look for his name there now, you’ll see the "Former Staff" tag.
Why? Because the media landscape is a meat grinder.
From The Wrap to The Outside Scoop
By 2024, Mendelson had moved on again. This wasn’t a "scandal" or a "firing"—it was a pivot. He followed the money and the freedom. Today, if you want the real, unvarnished Scott Mendelson experience, you don’t go to a major trade outlet. You go to Substack.
His newsletter, The Outside Scoop, is currently ranked among the top Film & TV publications on the platform. He also contributes to Puck News, which has become the "it" destination for industry insiders who want the real dirt on Hollywood financing.
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It’s a weirdly perfect evolution. In the old days (we're talking 2008), he started with a blog called Mendelson’s Memos. He spent years building a brand on his own terms before Forbes ever came calling. In a way, leaving The Wrap to go back to an independent model is just Scott being Scott.
What Most People Get Wrong About Box Office Analysis
Most "analysts" look at a $50 million opening weekend and say "Hit" or "Flop." Mendelson taught a whole generation of readers that it’s never that simple.
You have to look at the budget. You have to look at the marketing spend. You have to look at the "multiplier"—how much a movie earns over its total run compared to that first weekend. He was the one constantly reminding people that The Greatest Showman was a massive hit despite a tiny opening because it had "legs."
He also has this habit of defending movies the internet loves to hate. He’ll tell you why a "rotten" Tom Cruise movie is actually a masterclass in mid-budget filmmaking. Or why the Avatar sequels were never going to fail, no matter how much Twitter insisted "nobody remembers the first one."
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The "Mendelson Methodology" in a Nutshell:
- Theatrical is King: He’s always argued that movies that go to theaters first do better on streaming later.
- Context is Everything: A $30 million opening for a $20 million horror movie is a victory; a $100 million opening for a $300 million superhero movie is a disaster.
- Ignore the Hype: He looks at the raw audience data, not the social media sentiment.
Why His Perspective Still Matters in 2026
We are currently in a bizarre era of movies. We’ve seen Tron: Ares struggle and original hits like Primate surprise everyone. The "rules" of Hollywood are being rewritten every six months.
Scott Mendelson at The Wrap was a brief but vital chapter because it brought his "outsider" analytical style to a "legacy" Hollywood trade. It proved that deep-dive box office math had a mainstream audience. It wasn't just for nerds on Reddit; it was for the executives at Sony and Universal who were trying to figure out if they should still be making $200 million movies.
His move to Substack and Puck suggests that the "Trade Reporter" role is changing. You don't need a massive masthead if you have the trust of the audience.
The Takeaway for Movie Geeks and Industry Insiders
If you're trying to break into film journalism or just want to understand why your favorite franchise just got canceled, Scott’s career path is the blueprint. He didn't wait for permission. He started writing, got so good they couldn't ignore him, and then took his audience with him whenever he moved.
How to Track the Industry Like an Expert:
- Stop looking at "Opening Weekends" in a vacuum. Check the production budget on Variety or Deadline first.
- Watch the "Daily Drops." If a movie drops 70% in its second weekend, it’s dead. If it drops 30%, it’s a sleeper hit.
- Follow the Analysts, not the Fanboys. Find writers like Mendelson or the team at Puck who care about the P&L (Profit and Loss) more than the "Cinematic Universe" lore.
The film industry is currently obsessed with "safe" IP, but as Scott often points out, "safe" is usually the riskiest bet of all. The real money is often in the movies nobody saw coming.
Actionable Insight: If you want to stay ahead of the curve, start tracking the "Post-Theatrical" life of films. The new "win" in Hollywood isn't just the box office total; it's how that total inflates the licensing value for Netflix or Max six months later.