Honestly, if you're looking at the weather Sarasota 14 day forecast right now, you might be a little confused. One minute it’s gorgeous, and the next, you’re looking at a 44°F night that feels more like 39°F. Welcome to Sarasota in January. It's the kind of place where you can get a sunburn at noon and see your breath by 8:00 PM.
Most people think Florida is just endless heat. Wrong. Especially this year.
Right now, we are dealing with a weak La Niña transition. What does that actually mean for your trip to Siesta Key? Basically, it’s a roll of the dice. Historically, January is our coldest month, with an average high of 69°F and a low of around 56°F. But looking at the current data for the next couple of weeks, we are seeing some wild swings that buck those averages.
The 14-Day Breakdown: Sun, Spells, and a Little Shivering
If you're heading out today, Friday, January 16, 2026, it’s actually pretty crisp. We are looking at a high of 58°F and a low of 40°F. That northeast wind at 7 mph makes the "sunny" description feel a lot cooler than it looks through a window.
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Tomorrow gets better. Saturday jumps to 68°F. That’s the Sarasota sweet spot.
But don't get too comfortable. By Monday, January 19, we’re dipping back down to a high of 56°F. It’s a rollercoaster. If you’re packing, you've gotta think in layers. Forget the heavy parka, but a windbreaker and a solid hoodie are non-negotiable.
What’s Happening Mid-Week?
By the time we hit Wednesday and Thursday (Jan 21-22), the humidity starts creeping back up. We’re talking 68°F to 69°F highs. Thursday brings a 25% to 35% chance of light rain. It’s not a washout, but it’s that annoying Florida drizzle that makes the air feel heavy.
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Here is the kicker: late next week looks phenomenal. Friday, January 23, is hitting 72°F. That is prime beach weather for anyone coming from up north. Even the lows stay in the 60s, which means outdoor dining at St. Armands Circle won't require a space heater for once.
The "Secret" Sarasota Climate Factors
People always ask me if the Gulf of Mexico keeps things warm. Sorta. It acts like a giant radiator, but when a cold front pushes down from the Panhandle, that water can't do much against a 20 mph northwest wind. We saw that yesterday, Thursday, January 15, with 20 mph gusts that made the 61°F high feel pretty biting.
Another thing nobody talks about? High tide flooding. Because of the ongoing sea level rise—Florida has seen about 7 inches of rise since 1970—even a "small" storm can push water into the streets in places like Bird Key or the lower parts of Venice. If the forecast mentions "onshore winds" and "heavy rain," keep an eye on your parking spot.
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What Most People Get Wrong About January Forecasts
The biggest mistake? Trusting the "partly sunny" icon blindly. In Sarasota, "partly sunny" in January often means a thin veil of high-altitude clouds that lets the UV through but keeps the air cool. The UV index is currently around 4. That’s high enough to fry you if you’re out for three hours, even if you feel "chilly."
Also, the wind direction is everything here.
- North/Northeast wind: Dry, cold, clear skies. Great for hiking Myakka River State Park.
- South/Southwest wind: Humid, warmer, brings the chance of sea fog.
Actionable Tips for the Next 14 Days
If you're actually in town or planning to be, here’s the game plan:
- Monitor the "Feels Like" Temp: Don't just look at the 68°F. If the wind is coming off the water at 15 mph, it’s 60°F. Period.
- Beach Mornings are a Myth: In the summer, you go early. In January? Wait until 1:00 PM. Let the sun bake the sand a bit so you aren't shivering in your towel.
- The 4:00 PM Rule: This is when the temperature falls off a cliff. If you’re planning an outdoor sunset dinner, bring the sweater with you. Don't assume you'll be fine in a t-shirt.
- Check the Tides: If you're hitting the sand, Saturday's high tide is around 11:21 AM. If you want a long walk on the hard-packed sand, aim for the low tide early in the morning or late evening.
Sarasota weather is temperamental this time of year, but honestly, even a "cold" day here beats a blizzard anywhere else. Just keep an eye on those northwest winds toward the end of the month—they usually signal another quick cold snap before we crawl back into the 70s.
Grab your gear and get out there. Just maybe keep the windows up on the drive to the coast.