Honestly, if you looked at Saputo Inc. (TSX: SAP) a couple of years ago, you might’ve yawned. It was the definition of a "boring" stock. Dairy isn't exactly AI or space travel. But lately, the saputo cheese stock price has been doing something most people didn't expect: it's actually moving.
It's currently sitting around **C$40.61** on the Toronto Stock Exchange as of mid-January 2026. If you’ve been tracking this for a while, you know that’s a massive jump from the C$22-C$24 range we saw throughout much of early 2025. We are talking about a 60% climb in about a year.
Why? Because the company finally stopped just being big and started being efficient.
What’s Actually Moving the Saputo Cheese Stock Price?
Investors usually hate the dairy business because the margins are razor-thin. You’re at the mercy of milk prices, and if those go up, your profits vanish. But Saputo's CEO, Carl Colizza, has been banging the drum on "operational efficiency" for months now.
Basically, they stopped chasing every single dollar of revenue and started focusing on the dollars that actually make them money. In their Q2 2026 fiscal results (reported late 2025), they posted an adjusted EPS of $0.48. That's a significant beat compared to the $0.37 they did the year before.
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The Real Numbers
- Market Cap: Roughly C$16.5 billion.
- Dividend Yield: Sitting at about 2.0%.
- Quarterly Dividend: Recently bumped to $0.20 per share.
- Revenue: Clocked in at $4.72 billion for the last quarter.
The weird part? Revenue only grew by about 0.3%. Normally, that would scare off growth investors. But because their EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) jumped 11%, the market realized Saputo is getting much better at squeezing profit out of every block of cheese they sell.
Why Analysts are Suddenly Bullish (For the Most Part)
If you check the consensus on MarketBeat or Scotiabank reports, the vibe is "Moderate Buy." Most analysts have their price targets hovering between C$40.00 and C$49.00.
TD Securities is on the aggressive side, pushing for that $49 mark. They see the company’s debt-to-equity ratio of 51.68 as manageable, especially since Saputo has been aggressively buying back its own shares through a Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB).
When a company buys back its own stock, it usually means they think the market is underestimating them. It also helps prop up the saputo cheese stock price by reducing the total number of shares floating around.
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The "Tsunami of Milk" Problem
There is a catch, though. There always is.
By 2026, global milk production is expected to hit nearly 980 million metric tons. In the US alone, the USDA is forecasting a surge to 231 billion pounds. This "tsunami of milk" means supply is high, which usually crashes prices. For a processor like Saputo, lower raw milk costs can be good, but if cheese prices at the grocery store drop faster than their costs, the margins get squeezed again.
Is It a Good Buy Right Now?
It depends on what you're after. If you want a "get rich quick" moonshot, this isn't it. It’s cheese.
However, if you're looking for a defensive play that pays you to wait, Saputo looks interesting. They’ve been paying dividends for decades. They just raised it to $0.20 a quarter. Plus, insiders—including the Saputo family—own about 41% of the company. When the people running the show have $6.5 billion of their own money on the line, they usually don't make reckless moves.
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What Most People Get Wrong
A lot of retail investors see the negative P/E ratio on some financial sites (sometimes showing as -197 due to one-time restructuring charges) and panic. They think the company is losing money.
They aren't.
That negative number is often a result of non-cash accounting charges related to closing older, inefficient plants. If you look at the adjusted net earnings, the company is very much in the black.
Practical Next Steps for Investors
If you're considering adding this to your portfolio, don't just jump in at the all-time high.
- **Watch the C$39 Support Level:** The stock recently crossed its 200-day moving average of C$34.20. If it dips back toward $38 or $39, that might be a more comfortable entry point.
- Track the US Dairy Markets: Since 43% of Saputo's sales come from the United States, keep an eye on Class III milk futures. If they spike unexpectedly, it could hurt short-term stock performance.
- Check the Q3 Earnings: The next big catalyst will be the Q3 2026 earnings announcement, tentatively set for February 5, 2026. This will show if the margin improvements from the summer and fall were a fluke or a permanent trend.
The bottom line is that the saputo cheese stock price is finally reflecting a company that has moved past its "awkward growth" phase and into a "profit machine" phase. It’s not flashy, but in a volatile 2026 market, boring might be exactly what your TFSA needs.