Santa Cruz is a weird place for weather. Honestly, if you're looking at a generic 14-day forecast on your phone while sitting in San Jose or San Francisco, you’re basically looking at a different planet. One minute you're baking in the sun on the Boardwalk, and the next, a wall of gray mist rolls in off the Monterey Bay and suddenly you're shivering in a t-shirt.
Right now, as of mid-January 2026, we’re seeing a classic California winter split.
The Current 14-Day Reality
If you’re planning to be here over the next two weeks, the big takeaway is dry and surprisingly warm for the first half, followed by a potential shift. We’ve got a massive ridge of high pressure sitting over the West Coast. This is basically a big "no entry" sign for those Alaskan storms that usually hammer us this time of year.
The First Week (Jan 14 – Jan 20):
Expect a lot of "false spring" vibes. We're looking at daytime highs hitting the upper 60s and even low 70s. Tomorrow, Thursday the 15th, is shaping up to be a total outlier with a projected high of $72^{\circ}F$. That's gorgeous, but remember: it’s January. Once that sun dips behind the Santa Cruz Mountains around 5:00 PM, the temperature will crater. We’re talking $50^{\circ}F$ or even lower by dinner time.
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The Second Week (Jan 21 – Jan 28):
The "bubble" starts to thin out. Models are showing a dip back into the high 50s and low 60s. It’s not exactly "cold," but the humidity is going to climb. You'll see more of that classic morning marine layer—that thick, salty fog that makes the Westside look like a scene from a moody noir film. There’s a slight chance of showers toward the end of the month, maybe the 27th or 28th, but don't bet your wedding on it.
Why the Santa Cruz Weather 14 Day Forecast is Tricky
Microclimates. That’s the word locals throw around to sound smart, but it’s real.
You can be in Scotts Valley (just 10 minutes up Highway 17) and it’ll be $82^{\circ}F$ while Capitola Village is sitting at a damp $64^{\circ}F$. The geography here creates these pockets of trapped air. The mountains block the wind, the ocean provides the "air conditioning," and the result is a mess for meteorologists.
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Expert Tip: Never trust a forecast for "Santa Cruz" if you’re actually staying in the mountains like Felton or Ben Lomond. Those spots get significantly more rain and lower overnight temps than the city proper.
The Surf Factor
For the ocean lovers, the 14-day outlook is actually pretty decent for the logs and mid-lengths. We’re seeing a consistent WNW (West-Northwest) swell. Right now, it’s hanging in the 4–6 foot range with long periods—about 12 to 14 seconds. That means clean, manageable lines at Steamer Lane and Pleasure Point. Since the winds are staying light and mostly offshore in the mornings (coming from the NE), the water surface is staying "glassy" or "semi-glassy."
What to Actually Pack
Forget the "winter" gear you’d use in the Midwest. Santa Cruz winter is all about the Flannel and Shell combo.
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- Layers are non-negotiable: A thin merino wool base or a standard cotton tee, topped with a heavy flannel or a Patagonia-style "puffy" jacket.
- The Shoe Mistake: Don't wear flip-flops if you’re walking the cliffs at night. The dew makes the grass and pavement slick, and your toes will be numb in twenty minutes.
- Sunscreen: Seriously. With the UV index hitting 3.0 even in January, and the sun reflecting off the water, you will get burned during those $70^{\circ}F$ days at Natural Bridges.
Common Misconceptions About January Weather
People think January is just one long rainstorm. It’s not. While it is our wettest month historically (averaging about 6.3 inches of rain), it usually comes in "atmospheric river" bursts. You get three days of absolute chaos where the San Lorenzo River looks like chocolate milk, followed by ten days of crystalline blue skies.
We are currently in one of those "blue sky" windows.
It’s also surprisingly humid. People think "California = Dry," but the relative humidity in Santa Cruz this week is hovering around 65% to 75%. That’s why $55^{\circ}F$ here feels way colder than $55^{\circ}F$ in a place like Denver. The dampness gets into your bones.
Actionable Next Steps for Your Trip
- Check the Tides: If you're planning on walking to the tide pools at Wilder Ranch or Pleasure Point, the tides are shifting. We have some decent low tides in the afternoons this week.
- Book the Boardwalk Early: If you're hitting the rides, the "false spring" weather means crowds will be heavier than a typical January.
- Watch the 17: If a surprise shower does pop up toward the end of the 14-day window, Highway 17 becomes a skating rink. Give yourself double the time to get back to San Jose.
The 14-day outlook for Santa Cruz is looking like a gift for travelers—warm days, cool nights, and zero rain for at least the next ten days. Just don't let the afternoon sun fool you into leaving your jacket in the car.