Honestly, walking into Santa Anita Park in January feels like stepping into a high-stakes poker game where everyone is still trying to figure out if they’re holding a royal flush or just a pair of deuces. The sun hits the San Gabriel Mountains, the dirt has that perfect golden hue, and the chatter is always about the same thing: who’s actually going to make it to the first Saturday in May.
We’re talking about the Santa Anita Derby contenders, a group that currently looks more like a messy jigsaw puzzle than a finished picture. You’ve got the usual suspects—the Baffert powerhouses, the Mandella projects, and the occasional Jeff Mullins closer—all vying for those precious 100 qualifying points.
The Heavy Hitters Looming in the Shedrow
If you aren’t looking at Bob Baffert’s barn first, you’re basically ignoring the elephant in the room. Or rather, the silver-haired maestro of the Classics.
Buetane is the name on everyone’s lips right now. This son of Tiz the Law is kind of a monster. He ran second in the Grade 1 Hopeful back in the summer, and while he’s been on a bit of a hiatus, his recent morning drills have been frightening. Baffert doesn’t just bring these horses back to participate; he brings them back to dominate. He’s nominated for the San Vicente, which is usually the "coming out party" for the big West Coast three-year-olds.
Then there’s Litmus Test. He’s sitting second on the Derby leaderboard with 19 points. He isn't the flashy, "win-by-ten-lengths" type, but he’s remarkably consistent. He’s the blue-collar worker in a barn full of CEOs.
Don't Forget the "Other" Bafferts
- Brant: A Zedan Racing runner who finished well in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He has 9 points and looks like the type who wants every bit of the 1 1/8 miles they’ll run in April.
- Desert Gate: He was the runner-up in the American Pharoah Stakes. He’s been working steadily and is basically a ticking time bomb of potential.
- Blacksmith: Currently lower on the points list with 5, but Wathnan Racing doesn't buy slow horses.
The Local Heroes and Longshots
It isn't just a Baffert invitational, though. Jeff Mullins has a serious player in Intrepido.
This horse won the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes and he did it with a late-closing rally that made the rest of the field look like they were standing in wet concrete. He has 13 points and, more importantly, he has the "California kick." That’s that specific gear horses need to handle the Santa Anita surface when it gets fast and demanding in the afternoon.
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Richard Mandella is playing it cool, as he always does. He’s got Magnificat for Spendthrift Farm. She’s a filly, but she’s been showing the kind of grit on dirt that makes you wonder if they’ll take a shot against the boys. Probably not, but in this game, you never say never.
And keep an eye on So Happy. A son of Runhappy who just upset the apple cart in the San Vicente (G2), beating the odds-on favorite. It’s a classic case of a horse peaking at the right time.
Why the West Coast Trail is Different
People back East love to talk about the Florida Derby or the Wood Memorial. Those are fine.
But the Santa Anita path is a different beast entirely. The track is often deeper than it looks. You need a horse that can tuck in, take some dirt in the face, and still have enough gas to navigate that long home stretch.
Most of these Santa Anita Derby contenders are still "learning how to be horses," as the old-timers say. You’ll see a horse look like a superstar in a maiden race in January, only to completely fall apart when the pressure of a Grade 2 San Felipe or Robert B. Lewis hits them in February.
It’s about the "mental" more than the "physical" at this stage.
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What Most People Get Wrong About the Points
You’ll hear casual bettors say, "Oh, he’s got 10 points, he’s safe."
No.
Ten points in January is like having ten dollars in Vegas. It might get you a sandwich, but it won’t get you into the big game. The Santa Anita Derby offers 100 points to the winner. That is the "win and you’re in" ticket. Until a horse crosses that wire on April 4th, everything else is just a dress rehearsal.
Breaking Down the Key Prep Schedule
The road is pretty clearly mapped out, but it’s full of potholes.
- Robert B. Lewis (Jan 31): This is the first real distance test. It’s only a mile, but it separates the sprinters from the stayers.
- San Felipe (March 7): This is usually where the "A-Team" shows up. If a horse wins this, they’re the favorite for April.
- Santa Anita Derby (April 4): The big one. 1 1/8 miles. 100 points. The glory.
The Sleeper to Watch
If you want a name that isn't on the front page of the Daily Racing Form yet, look at Bust Out.
He’s trained by Michael McCarthy. He’s a "promising maiden winner" right now, but he has the frame of a horse that will thrive as the distances get longer. McCarthy is patient. He doesn't rush them. If Bust Out shows up in the San Felipe entries, take it as a sign that the barn thinks they have something special.
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Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're looking to follow the Santa Anita Derby contenders this year, stop looking at just the speed figures.
Start watching the gallop-outs. After the finish line, which horse is still pulling? Which horse is the jockey having a hard time pulling up? Those are the horses that will handle the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby.
Also, pay attention to the ship-ins. Sometimes a horse from the Fair Grounds or Oaklawn will show up at Santa Anita because their trainer thinks the California sun will wake them up. These "interlopers" often provide the best betting value.
Keep your eyes on the Saturday afternoon cards. The 3-year-old maiden races in late January often produce the horses that end up hitting the board in April. By the time the Santa Anita Derby rolls around, you want to be the one who saw the winner back when they were just a 5-1 shot in a maiden special weight.
Get to the track early. Watch the warm-ups. Sometimes the "winner" is the horse that looks like he owns the place before the gates even open.