Honestly, if you've spent more than a week in Marin, you know the "official" numbers only tell half the story.
Right now, we're looking at a san rafael 10 day forecast that seems almost too good to be true for mid-January. While the rest of the country is basically shivering through a polar vortex or getting hammered by Great Lakes clippers, San Rafael is sitting pretty.
The Current Reality
As of Friday night, January 16, 2026, it’s a crisp 50°F outside. The sky is clear, and the wind is just a whisper from the north at 5 mph. But don't let that nighttime chill fool you.
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If you’re planning your week, here is the raw data you actually need.
Friday, January 16 (Today): We hit a high of 61°F. Tonight stays clear with a low of 47°F. There’s a tiny 10% chance of a stray shower, but basically, it's dry.
Saturday, January 17: Expect a bit more cloud cover. Highs will dip slightly to 59°F with a low of 46°F. Humidity is ramping up to 70%, so it might feel a little "heavier" than today.
Sunday, January 18: Mostly sunny again. High of 61°F and a low of 49°F. It’s the warmest night of the week, actually.
Why the Forecast Feels Different This Year
We are technically in a weakening La Niña cycle. Usually, that means "dry and boring," but 2026 has been anything but. We’ve had a series of relentless storms through early January that actually officially pulled California out of the drought.
But for the next ten days? The atmospheric rivers have taken a breather.
Monday, January 19: Full sun. High 60°F, low 47°F. Perfect for a hike if you don't mind the mud from last week's rain.
Tuesday, January 20: Partly sunny. High 59°F, low 47°F.
Wednesday, January 21: More of the same. High 58°F, low 47°F.
The San Rafael Microclimate Trap
Here is the thing about the san rafael 10 day forecast: it doesn't account for the "Terra Linda Shade" or the fog that rolls off the bay.
The forecast says 56°F for next Thursday (January 22) and Friday (January 23). That sounds decent, right? But with humidity hitting 79% to 84%, that dampness gets into your bones. It’s that Northern California "cold" that feels way chillier than the thermometer suggests.
- The Humidity Factor: On Friday the 23rd, humidity hits 84%. Even with a sunny high of 56°F, you'll want a real coat, not just a windbreaker.
- The Rain Returns: Don't get too comfortable with the sun. By Sunday, January 25, we’re looking at light rain. High of 56°F, low of 47°F, and a 25% chance of precipitation during the day.
- The Wind: Most of this week, the wind stays under 8 mph, coming mainly from the northeast. It’s calm. Quiet. Almost eerie for January.
What to Actually Do With This Information
If you’re looking at this san rafael 10 day forecast and wondering if you should wash your car or plant those winter veggies—do it now. The window of "mostly sunny" from Monday through Wednesday is your best bet.
By the time we hit Monday, January 26, the clouds are coming back in force. We're looking at a high of 58°F and a low of 48°F with "mostly cloudy" skies hanging over the valley.
Actionable Next Steps for Marin Residents
- Prep for the 25th: The rain chance is only 25%, but in San Rafael, that often turns into a steady drizzle that lasts all afternoon. Clear your gutters before Sunday.
- Layer Up: The gap between the 61°F daytime high and the 46°F nighttime low is significant. If you're heading out to dinner downtown, that 15-degree drop happens fast once the sun goes behind the hills.
- Watch the Dew Point: With humidity hovering near 75-80% most nights, expect heavy frost or dew on your windshield every morning this week. Give yourself an extra five minutes to defrost.
The 10-day outlook is stable, but in Marin, "stable" is just the setup for the next big storm. Enjoy the sun while it's here.