Honestly, if you missed the July 2025 clash between these two, you missed one of the weirdest nights in MLS. It wasn't just a soccer game. It was a chaotic, red-card-filled mess that perfectly summed up why this cross-country matchup is always so unpredictable.
San Jose Earthquakes vs NY Red Bulls is a fixture rooted in the very beginning of the league. We're talking 1996 levels of history here. Back when the Red Bulls were still the MetroStars and the Quakes were briefly the "Clash."
The most recent 1-1 draw at PayPal Park was a total fever dream. 17,580 people showed up for Fireworks Night, and they definitely got fireworks, just not the kind they expected. Three red cards. One own goal. A legendary coach like Bruce Arena pacing the sidelines against his former team. It was peak MLS after dark, even if it kicked off at 7:30 PM.
The Night the Ref Lost His Whistle
You can't talk about San Jose Earthquakes vs NY Red Bulls without talking about the cards.
Malik Badawi, the referee, had a busy night. DeJuan Jones for San Jose? Gone in the 64th minute after a second yellow. But the Red Bulls didn't exactly keep it clean either. Raheem Edwards saw red in the 87th, and Ronald Donkor followed him into the locker room in stoppage time.
Basically, the game ended as a 10-on-9 scrap.
It’s kind of wild when you look at the stats. San Jose dominated possession with 56% and outshot New York 15 to 11. They also led the league in expected goals (xG) at the time, sitting at a massive 44.17. But expected goals don't put points on the board. Emil Forsberg did that for New York in the 19th minute, silencing the California crowd with a clinical left-footed finish after a Peter Stroud through ball.
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San Jose didn't even score their own equalizer. An own goal from New York’s Mohammed Sofo in the 58th minute did the work for them.
Historical Context: Why This Matchup Matters
A lot of newer fans think of these teams as total strangers because they're in opposite conferences. That's a mistake. They have a shared DNA that goes back decades.
- The First Trade: In 1996, the first-ever player transaction in MLS history happened between these two. Local legend Troy Dayak was sent to San Jose.
- The 2010 Playoff Upset: This is the one Red Bulls fans still hate talking about. New York was the heavy favorite, the "Goliath." San Jose was the "David." After losing the first leg at home, the Quakes went into Red Bull Arena and pulled off a 3-1 stunner to advance.
- The "Metro" Connection: Bruce Arena, the guy currently trying to fix the Quakes, actually coached the Red Bulls back in 2006-07. The layers of history are everywhere.
Tactical Breakdown: Arena vs the Red Bull Press
The Red Bulls haven't changed their identity in years. It’s high-octane, "we’re going to run until your lungs burn" soccer. They press high. They force mistakes. In the July match, they disrupted San Jose's build-up play for the entire first half.
Arena, on the other hand, wants the Quakes to be more expansive. He's got guys like Cristian Espinoza—who is basically a human cross-machine—trying to find Chicho Arango in the box.
When DeJuan Jones got sent off, everyone figured San Jose would crumble. They didn't. Arena threw on Benji Kikanović and Ousseni Bouda to keep the energy up. It worked well enough to salvage a point, but you could tell Bruce was annoyed. He mentioned in the post-game that they had a counterattack opportunity late where they should’ve been "sharper" to get the win.
Roster Shifts and the 2026 Outlook
Looking at where these teams are going, things are getting a bit messy.
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San Jose is moving on from some big names. They've already decided not to exercise options on Rodrigues and Josef Martínez for 2026. That’s a lot of veteran experience walking out the door. Plus, Cristian Espinoza is hitting free agency. If the Quakes don't re-sign him, the soul of their attack is basically gone.
The Red Bulls are also trimming the fat. They declined the option on Kyle Duncan and are losing goalkeeper Carlos Coronel to free agency. But they’re keeping the core like Sean Nealis and Peter Stroud.
The biggest shock? They traded Daniel Edelman to St. Louis City SC. That’s a huge hole in the midfield for a team that relies on constant movement.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Matchup
Most analysts look at the all-time record and see a dead heat. The Quakes are 17-15-11 against the Red Bulls. It looks balanced on paper.
But if you look closer, the home-field advantage is a monster in this series. San Jose is 13-4-4 at home against New York. When the Red Bulls have to fly across three time zones to play in the South Bay, they usually struggle.
People also underestimate how much the "expected goals" metric favored San Jose in 2025. They were statistically one of the most creative teams in the league, often ranking in the top five for chances created. Their problem wasn't getting the ball to the net; it was the fact that their defense was conceding at a rate that would make a high school coach weep.
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| Metric | San Jose (2025) | NY Red Bulls (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Conceded | 61 | 45 |
| Clean Sheets | 5 | 11 |
| Chances Created | 275 | 193 |
The Red Bulls are the opposite. They are boringly efficient. They don't create as much, but they don't let you breathe in the defensive third.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If you're looking at the next time these two meet, keep a few things in mind.
First, check the travel schedule. If the Red Bulls are coming off a midweek game and then flying to San Jose, the Quakes' moneyline becomes very attractive. The Red Bulls' high-press system falls apart when the legs are heavy.
Second, look at the over/under on cards. This isn't a "friendly" inter-conference game. There is genuine historical friction here. In their last meeting, the referee was practically handing out cards like business cards.
Finally, watch the Espinoza factor. If Cristian Espinoza is playing, San Jose has a chance. He led the league in crosses and was the primary catalyst for that 58th-minute equalizer. Without him, San Jose's attack becomes incredibly predictable.
The 2026 season is going to be a rebuilding year for both. San Jose has the No. 11 pick in the SuperDraft and a lot of cap space to fill. New York is looking for a new identity after the Edelman trade.
One thing is certain: when San Jose Earthquakes vs NY Red Bulls kicks off, throw the logic out the window. It’s going to be weird.
Track the 2026 MLS SuperDraft on December 18 to see how the Quakes use that No. 11 pick to shore up a defense that allowed 69 goals in the previous cycle. If they don't find a center-back who can handle the Red Bulls' transition speed, the next meeting will be another long night for the fans at PayPal Park.