Honestly, if you've lived in the City for more than a week, you know the "official" forecast is usually just a polite suggestion. You check your phone, see a sun icon, walk outside in a t-shirt, and get slapped in the face by a wall of damp, 50-degree mist at the corner of Haight and Ashbury.
But right now? Things are actually looking pretty clear.
The san fran 10 day weather outlook is doing something it rarely does in the dead of January. It’s staying remarkably consistent. We’re currently sitting in a weirdly comfortable pocket of "not too wet, not too cold," which is a massive relief after the soggy start we had to 2026. If you remember that atmospheric river back on January 4th—the one that dumped over an inch of rain in 24 hours—this upcoming week is going to feel like a different planet.
Breaking Down the San Fran 10 Day Weather
Today, Friday, January 16, we hit a high of 67°F. That’s nearly ten degrees warmer than the historical January average of 57°F. It’s basically "fake spring." Tonight will drop to about 52°F, which is still warmer than the usual 46°F chill we expect this time of year.
Tomorrow, Saturday, the clouds move in. Don’t panic. It’s not a washout. We’re looking at a high of 63°F and a low of 51°F. There’s a tiny 10% chance of rain, but honestly, that’s just San Francisco being San Francisco. It’s more of a "misty windshield" situation than a "break out the galoshes" situation.
Sunday through Tuesday stays in that same sweet spot. Highs will hover between 61°F and 63°F. Lows are staying rock solid at 50°F or 51°F.
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Mid-Week Shifts and the Return of the Gray
By Wednesday, January 21, the mercury starts a slow slide. We’ll hit 60°F, then 57°F on Thursday, and eventually settle into the mid-50s by next weekend. Humidity is going to climb from the 50s into the 70% range by Thursday.
You’ll feel that.
It’s that damp, heavy air that makes 56°F feel like 40°F. If you're heading to the Outer Sunset or Richmond, expect it to feel even tighter.
The Microclimate Reality Check
You can't talk about a 10-day forecast here without acknowledging that "San Francisco" is actually five different weather zones wearing one trench coat. While the Financial District might be 63°F and breezy, Noe Valley—the legendary "Sun Belt"—could easily feel like 68°F.
Meanwhile, over at Ocean Beach, you're lucky if you can see your own feet through the marine layer.
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Expert tip: If the forecast says 10% chance of rain for the city, the Sunset District is probably 100% getting drizzled on. That’s just the tax you pay for living near the Pacific. According to local microclimate data from sources like Mr. Chilly, the temperature gap between the Mission and the Richmond can be as much as 10 degrees on a day just like today.
Rain Chances: Are We Actually Going to Get Wet?
The back half of this 10-day window is where it gets interesting. Friday, Jan 23, and Saturday, Jan 24, show a bump in precipitation. We're looking at a 20% chance of rain both day and night.
Is it a storm? No.
Is it enough to ruin a hike at Land's End? Probably.
By Sunday, January 25, we’re looking at actual "light rain" conditions with a high of only 57°F. It’s a return to the standard January dampness. After a week of mostly sunny and partly cloudy skies, it’s going to feel like a bit of a bummer.
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Dressing for the Next 10 Days
Since we’re dealing with north and northeast winds early in the week at about 6 mph, the air is going to feel crisp but not biting.
- Monday - Tuesday: Light layers. A hoodie or a denim jacket is plenty.
- Wednesday - Thursday: Bring back the windbreaker. That humidity jump makes the air "sticky" cold.
- Next Weekend: Full rain shell. Even if it's just 20%, you don't want to be caught in a 56-degree drizzle without a hood.
Why This Forecast Matters for Your Wallet
Believe it or not, this stretch of weather actually impacts local life beyond just what you wear. Real estate experts like Ruth Krishnan have noted for years that "sunny" neighborhoods in SF command about a 20% premium in home prices. When we get a 10-day stretch of clear weather like this, the "Fog Belt" neighborhoods—the Sunset and Richmond—suddenly look a lot more attractive to buyers who forget that it’s usually grey 200 days a year.
Also, if you're a gardener, this is the time to get your winter pruning done. The ground is still moist from the early January rains, but the lack of a major downpour this week means you won't be treading through a mud pit.
The san fran 10 day weather outlook is a rare gift of predictability. Enjoy the 60-degree highs while they last, because by the time we hit the final weekend of the month, the light rain and the 50-degree lows are coming back to reclaim the city.
Grab your coffee, head to Dolores Park this Sunday while it's "mostly sunny," and soak up the Vitamin D before the 20% chances turn into 100%. Check your local neighborhood sensors if you're crossing the Twin Peaks tunnel—it’s a different world on the other side.