If you’ve stepped outside in the Mid-Willamette Valley lately, you’ve probably noticed something is slightly off. Usually, by mid-January, we’re essentially living in a car wash. It's that relentless, gray drizzle that defines Oregon winters. But the Salem Oregon weather 30 day forecast is telling a much different story for early 2026.
Right now, we are stuck under a massive "ridge" of high pressure. While the mountains are desperate for snow, those of us on the valley floor are dealing with something else: air stagnation. Basically, the air is just sitting there. It’s not moving, it’s trapping moisture, and it’s creating some of the thickest "pea soup" fog we've seen in years.
The Current State of the Valley
Honestly, it’s a bit eerie. We have an active Air Stagnation Advisory that isn’t expected to budge until at least Friday, January 16. If you're driving down I-5 toward Albany or north toward Woodburn, you know exactly what I mean. Visibility has been dropping to a quarter-mile or less during the morning commutes.
The National Weather Service in Portland has been tracking this persistent low-level inversion. An inversion is just a fancy way of saying that warm air is sitting on top of cold air, acting like a lid. It keeps all the woodsmoke, car exhaust, and moisture pinned down where we breathe.
Because of this lid, temperatures in Salem are staying "chilly" but not exactly freezing. We’re looking at highs in the mid-40s to low 50s ($10-12^{\circ}\text{C}$) through the rest of the week.
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What to Expect Through Late January
As we look deeper into the Salem Oregon weather 30 day forecast, the dry spell is the big headline. Most of us expect January to be our wettest month, but 2026 is trending toward "historically dry."
- Mid-January (Jan 14 - Jan 20): Expect more of the same. Foggy mornings, maybe some "sun-breaks" by 2:00 PM if we’re lucky, and overnight lows hovering right around the freezing mark ($32^{\circ}\text{F}$).
- Late January (Jan 21 - Jan 31): The ridge finally starts to break down. Long-range models suggest a return to our regularly scheduled programming—light rain and overcast skies. We might actually see a few "warm" days where it hits $55^{\circ}\text{F}$, which feels like a heatwave after a week of gray.
Why the Lack of Snow Matters
There is a lot of talk among local meteorologists about the "snow drought." The Willamette Basin is currently sitting at about 22% of its normal snowpack. That is a terrifyingly low number for this time of year.
State climatologist Larry O’Neill recently pointed out that while we’re getting some rain, the temperatures are too high for it to stick as snow in the Cascades. For Salem, this means our summer water levels in the Santiam River might be lower than usual. If you like kayaking or fishing, this is the part of the forecast that actually matters for your summer plans.
Looking Into February 2026
Will it actually get cold?
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The short answer is: maybe for a second.
The long-range outlooks for the first half of February show a potential "Arctic intrusion." This happens when the jet stream dips just enough to pull air down from Canada. If that moisture from the Pacific meets that cold air, Salem might see its annual 24 hours of snow-induced chaos.
Statistically, February is our snowiest month, but "snowy" in Salem usually just means two inches that melt by noon. The current 30-day trend suggests temperatures will remain 1 to 2 degrees above average, so don't go buying a snowblower just yet.
Practical Realities of This Forecast
Since the air is so stagnant, if you have asthma or sensitive lungs, you really need to keep an eye on the air quality index (AQI). When the wind doesn't blow, the valley turns into a bit of a bowl for pollutants.
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- Check your tires: The fog makes the roads slicker than they look, even without ice.
- Vitamin D: Seriously. Even when it’s "sunny" above the fog, we aren't getting much light down here.
- Gardeners: It’s tempting to start pruning because it’s dry, but we still have plenty of frost nights ahead. Wait until late February.
The Salem Oregon weather 30 day forecast isn't showing any major "storm of the century" vibes, but the lack of rain is definitely the outlier. We are living through a very weird, dry, foggy stretch of Oregon history.
Keep your headlights on, even at noon, and keep a rain shell in the car. This is Oregon, after all; the dry weather never lasts as long as we think it will.
Next Steps for Salem Residents:
Monitor the local AQI levels daily through the DEQ’s Air Quality Index map while the stagnation advisory remains in place. If you're planning a trip to the Cascades, check the ODOT TripCheck cameras, as conditions above 2,500 feet are radically different (and much sunnier) than what we are seeing in the valley right now.