New Orleans and Tampa Bay. It’s not just a game. Honestly, it’s a twice-a-year grudge match that feels like it’s played in a blender. If you’ve watched these two teams lately, you know exactly what I mean. The Saints vs Tampa Bay rivalry isn’t about finesse; it’s about who can survive the mud, the rain, and the inevitable fourth-quarter chaos that defines the NFC South.
We just wrapped up the 2025 season, and the dust is still settling on a year that made absolutely no sense. The Saints finished 6-11. The Bucs finished 8-9. Neither team exactly set the world on fire, but when they met, the world definitely caught a spark.
People think they know this matchup. They remember the Drew Brees days or the Tom Brady era. But that’s ancient history now. We’re in a weird, transitional space where rookie quarterbacks are scrambling for their lives and coaching staffs are being overhauled by the week. If you’re looking for a clean, predictable narrative, you’re looking at the wrong division.
The Rain-Soaked Upset That Shook the Standings
Let’s talk about December 7, 2025. It was a mess. A total, rain-slicked mess at Raymond James Stadium. Most experts had the Bucs winning easily. Why wouldn't they? The Saints were 2-10 at the time. They looked broken. Kellen Moore was under fire in his first year as head coach.
Then Tyler Shough happened.
You might not know the name unless you follow draft boards closely, but the rookie out of Louisville played like a man possessed. He didn't just throw the ball; he ran for two touchdowns, including a 34-yarder that left the Bucs' secondary looking like they were stuck in quicksand. The Saints walked out of Tampa with a 24-20 win.
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It was ugly football. Baker Mayfield struggled, going 14-of-30. The Bucs were 2-for-7 on fourth downs. Think about that. You don't see professional teams fail that often on short yardage unless something is fundamentally sideways. That single game basically threw the entire NFC South into a tailspin, eventually allowing the Carolina Panthers to sneak in and steal the division title at 8-9.
Why Saints vs Tampa Bay is the Saltiest Game in the NFL
Historically, the Saints lead the series 41-28. But records are kind of a lie. Since the 2002 realignment, these two have lived in each other’s pockets.
There’s a genuine dislike here. You’ve got the "Big Easy" vs the "Cigar City." It’s the Superdome vs the Pirate Ship. When Saints vs Tampa Bay kicks off, you can bet on a few things:
- At least one sideline scuffle.
- A controversial officiating call that gets talked about for three weeks.
- A defensive player like Vita Vea or Cameron Jordan making someone's life miserable.
What most people get wrong is thinking the Bucs have "taken over" since Brady arrived. While they did win a Super Bowl and dominated for a stretch, the Saints have this weird habit of beating them when they have no business doing so. Even in their worst years, New Orleans finds a way to ruin Tampa Bay’s season.
Take the 2025 season series. The Bucs crushed the Saints 23-3 in the Superdome earlier in the year. Total blowout. Then, the Saints return the favor in December with a backup-turned-starter rookie QB. It’s a pendulum that never stops swinging.
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The Coaching Carousel and the 2026 Outlook
Right now, in January 2026, both teams are at a massive crossroads.
Todd Bowles is returning for a fifth season in Tampa, but he just fired his offensive coordinator, Josh Grizzard, and his special teams coach. The Bucs’ pass defense ranked 27th this past year. That’s a disaster for a team that prides itself on "D." They’re looking for a new identity, and frankly, some fans are wondering if the defensive-minded Bowles should hand over the play-calling sheet entirely.
In New Orleans, the vibe is surprisingly optimistic despite a 6-11 finish. Why? Because they finished strong, winning four straight to end the year. Kellen Moore seems to have found his guy in Tyler Shough. Mickey Loomis and Moore basically held a press conference last week confirming that Shough is the future. No more bridge quarterbacks. No more "maybe."
The Aging Star Problem
We can't ignore the elephant in the room: the roster age.
- Cameron Jordan: A legend, but he's entering his late 30s.
- Demario Davis: Still a tackling machine, but he’s a free agent and isn't getting any younger.
- Mike Evans: The heart of Tampa, but even he can’t outrun Father Time forever.
The 2026 matchups are going to be defined by how these teams replace their icons. Can the Saints find a pass rusher to replace Jordan? Can the Bucs fix a secondary that gave up chunk plays to rookie receivers all year?
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Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're betting on these games or just trying to win your fantasy league, keep these things in mind:
- Watch the Turnover Margin: In the 2025 matchups, the winner of the turnover battle won the game every single time. Baker Mayfield is high-risk, high-reward. If the Saints' Alontae Taylor stays healthy, he’s a magnet for Mayfield’s errant passes.
- The "Shough" Factor: Tyler Shough’s mobility is the X-factor. The Bucs struggle with "plus-one" run games where the QB is a threat. If Moore keeps calling scrambles and designed draws, Tampa’s linebackers are going to be in for long afternoons.
- Home Field is a Myth: Lately, the road team has been dominant. The Saints have won five of their last seven games in Tampa. Don't assume the Superdome crowd or the cannons at Ray Jay will actually change the outcome.
The rivalry is changing. It's moving away from the star power of the 2010s and into a gritty, developmental era. But one thing stays the same: neither of these teams can stand each other.
Keep an eye on the Buccaneers' coaching hires this month. Who they bring in as OC will determine if Baker Mayfield can regain his 2023 form or if he’s going to keep sliding. For the Saints, it’s all about the draft. They need youth on the edges to support Shough’s development.
Track the official NFL schedule release in May to see when these two meet. Usually, the league likes to tuck one of these into the final three weeks of the season because, as we saw in 2025, that’s when the NFC South usually implodes.