If you’ve spent any time in the Michael J. Hagan ’85 Arena or the Charles E. Smith Center lately, you know that the Saint Joseph's vs GW matchup isn't just another date on the Atlantic 10 calendar. It’s a clash of identities. On one side, you have the "The Hawk Will Never Die" grit of Philly; on the other, the Revolutionaries (formerly the Colonials) trying to defend their turf in the heart of Foggy Bottom.
Honestly, it's the kind of game that makes college basketball great. It's messy. It's loud. It's unpredictable.
The 2025-26 season has added a fresh layer of spice to this old beef. We aren't just looking at two teams fighting for a middle-of-the-pack seed anymore. As of mid-January 2026, both programs are hovering right around that .600 winning percentage mark, making their upcoming February 4th meeting in Philadelphia a massive "swing" game for the conference tournament.
The State of the Saint Joseph's vs GW Rivalry
History matters here, but maybe not in the way you think. Saint Joseph’s leads the all-time series with 40 wins to GW’s 30, but the recent trend is what’s catching people’s attention. The Hawks have won the last four meetings, including a 79-68 victory back in February 2025 where they basically sucked the air out of the room in D.C.
That game was a perfect microcosm of why GW fans are frustrated.
The Revolutionaries started hot—Rafael Castro was throwing down dunks and they were winning the battle in the paint. Then, the second half happened. GW shot a dismal 30% from the floor in the final 20 minutes, while St. Joe's rode a 19-point performance from Erik Reynolds II to pull away.
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But here’s the thing: things look different in 2026.
What’s Changed for 2026?
GW isn't playing that slow, grinding style anymore. Under Coach Chris Caputo, they’ve turned into an offensive juggernaut, averaging over 87 points per game. They are currently the second-highest scoring team in the Atlantic 10. They play fast. Sometimes too fast.
On the other side, Billy Lange’s Saint Joseph’s squad is leaning on a rotation of younger talent. You've got guys like Jaiden Glover-Toscano and Derek Simpson carrying a heavy load. They aren't as high-scoring as GW, but they’ve been more disciplined in tight spots.
Key Players to Watch
- Jaiden Glover-Toscano (SJU): He’s been a revelation, averaging nearly 16 points a game. If he gets hot from the perimeter, GW doesn't really have a wing defender who can match his length and speed.
- Rafael Castro (GW): The 6'11" center is the anchor. He’s a double-double machine. In the last matchup, he had 20 points and 11 rebounds, but he needs more help from the backcourt if GW wants to break the losing streak.
- Trey Autry (GW): He’s the engine. When Autry is clicking, GW's transition game is terrifying.
The "Philly Factor" vs D.C. Cool
There is a psychological element to Saint Joseph's vs GW that often gets overlooked. Philly basketball is notoriously "in your face." The Hawks thrive on turnovers and transition points off mistakes. GW, meanwhile, has often struggled with that specific brand of pressure.
In their last several losses to St. Joe's, GW has given up double-digit points off turnovers. It’s a recurring nightmare.
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If GW wants to flip the script on February 4th, they have to survive the first ten minutes of the game. Hagan Arena is a tiny, loud box. If the Hawks get a couple of early steals and the "Hawk" starts flapping its wings, it’s a long night for any visitor.
Breaking Down the Numbers (The Prose Version)
If you look at the stats from the first half of this season, the disparity is wild. GW is shooting nearly 49% from the field as a team, which is elite for the A-10. Saint Joseph's is significantly lower, hanging around 42%.
Logic says the better shooting team wins, right?
Not necessarily.
Saint Joseph's makes up for the shooting gap by being better at the free-throw line and committing fewer unforced errors. They play "winning" basketball, even when it isn't "pretty" basketball. They win the "grit" stats—offensive rebounds, 50/50 balls, and drawn charges.
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What Most People Get Wrong
People often assume this is a "rebuilding" year for both, but the A-10 is wide open. With Saint Louis and George Mason leading the pack, the 3-through-8 seeds are a total toss-up.
A win in this Saint Joseph's vs GW game could be the difference between a double-bye in the conference tournament or playing on opening day.
It’s also not just about the men's side. The SJU women’s team has absolutely dominated GW lately, winning five straight. There’s a systemic culture of winning this specific matchup in the St. Joe’s athletic department right now.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If you’re watching this game or looking at the spread, keep these factors in mind:
- Watch the Turnover Margin: If GW keeps it under 12, they likely win. If it creeps toward 16 or 17, St. Joe's will run away with it.
- The Three-Point Variance: St. Joe's lives and dies by the arc. If they hit 10+ threes, they are almost impossible to beat at home.
- The Fatigue Factor: GW plays a very short rotation. By the 8-minute mark of the second half, keep an eye on their defensive rotations. That’s usually when the Hawks strike.
The rivalry is currently in a state where GW is the more talented offensive team, but St. Joe's is the more cohesive unit. Until the Revolutionaries prove they can handle the Philly pressure, the Hawks hold the psychological edge.
Keep an eye on the injury reports leading up to February. Any slight tweak to Derek Simpson or Rafael Castro changes the entire geometry of the floor. For now, mark your calendars for the 4th—it’s going to be a battle of wills.