It’s the phrase that makes half of Washington wince and the other half nod in a sort of "I told you so" trance. We’ve seen it pop up more frequently in opinion columns and cable news chyrons lately. Honestly, even outlets like The Hill have had to run pieces acknowledging that, despite the chaotic delivery and the mean tweets, the man actually had a point on some of the biggest structural issues facing the country.
You remember the 2018 NATO summit, right? Trump basically walked into a room of European leaders, grabbed the metaphorical aux cord, and started blasting them for being "captives" to Russian energy. People called him a wrecking ball. They said he was ruining the "liberal international order." Fast forward to the mid-2020s, and suddenly, those same European nations are scrambling to undo decades of reliance on Russian gas while frantically trying to meet the 2% defense spending target they ignored for years.
The NATO Prophecy and the Energy Trap
Looking back at the transcript of that 2018 breakfast in Brussels is wild. Trump was hammering Germany about the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. He called it "inappropriate" that the U.S. was paying to protect Europe from Russia while Germany was sending billions of dollars to Moscow for fuel.
At the time, the reaction was largely eye-rolls and diplomatic hand-wringing. But the reality of 2024 and 2025 proved he wasn't just blustering. When the tanks rolled into Ukraine and the gas taps started turning off, the "sadly, Trump was right" narrative took hold because the dependency he warned about became a literal matter of life and death for Eastern Europe.
It wasn't just about the pipes, though. It was about the money. For years, the U.S. carried the lion's share of the NATO budget. Trump’s "delinquent" comments were crude, sure. But they worked. By the time he left office, and certainly into his second term, European defense spending had shifted in a way that years of "polite" diplomacy from previous administrations never achieved.
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Why the Border Logic Stuck
Then there’s the border. This is the one that really gets people heated. For years, the idea of a "wall" was treated as a medieval relic or a xenophobic fever dream. But as the migrant crisis overwhelmed cities like New York, Chicago, and Denver—cities that once proudly claimed "sanctuary" status—the tone shifted.
Even the staunchest critics started realizing that you can't have a sovereign nation without a defined border. When Democratic mayors started pleading for federal help and suggesting that "the house is full," they were essentially echoing the core sentiment of the 2016 campaign. They didn't use the same words, obviously. They called it "resource management" or "humane border control," but the underlying problem was exactly what Trump had been shouting about for a decade.
- Physical Barriers: Turns out, infrastructure actually matters for enforcement.
- Remain in Mexico: A policy once decried as cruel became something the following administration tried to navigate around, only to realize its effectiveness.
- Parole Programs: The massive influx through legal "loopholes" created a backlog that the judicial system still hasn't recovered from.
The China Realignment
Before 2016, the bipartisan consensus was basically: "If we trade with China, they’ll become more like us." It was a nice thought. It was also completely wrong. Trump was the first person to stand on a debate stage and treat China like a strategic adversary rather than a "developing partner."
He used tariffs as a blunt force instrument. Economists hated it. They warned of a total collapse. But what actually happened? He broke the spell. He forced a conversation about "decoupling"—or "de-risking" as the policy wonks call it now—that is now the standard stance for both Republicans and Democrats.
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Think about the CHIPS Act or the crackdown on TikTok. These are policies that look a lot like the "America First" agenda, just with a fresh coat of paint. Honestly, if you told someone in 2012 that the U.S. would be banning advanced semiconductor exports to Beijing, they’d think you were crazy. Now, it’s just Tuesday.
The Media’s "Wait, What?" Moment
The most interesting part of the "Sadly, Trump was Right" phenomenon is the source. When The Hill or The New York Times publishes an op-ed with this theme, they aren't doing it because they like the guy. They're doing it because the data is getting too loud to ignore.
Take the economy. Remember the "voters don't understand how good they have it" era of 2023? It didn't land because people were looking at their grocery bills and comparing them to 2019. Under the Trump administration, pre-COVID, the U.S. saw record-low unemployment for minority groups and a significant rise in median household income. You don't have to like his personality to acknowledge that the "opportunity zones" and tax cuts created a specific type of economic heat that a lot of families are currently missing.
Realism Over Idealism
The common thread in all these "wins" is a shift from global idealism to cold-blooded realism. Trump viewed the world through the lens of a New York real estate deal: Who is paying? Who is winning? Who is taking advantage of me?
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It’s a cynical way to look at the world. But in a world of Putin, Xi Jinping, and a crumbling border, a little cynicism turned out to be more prophetic than the high-minded internationalism that preceded it. The "liberal world order" was built on the assumption that everyone wanted to play by the same rules. Trump’s core insight—the thing he was "right" about—was that they don't.
Actionable Insights for the Current Climate
So, what do we actually do with this information? It’s not just about winning an argument at Thanksgiving. It’s about understanding where the country is headed.
- Watch the Energy Sector: The shift back toward domestic energy independence isn't a "MAGA" thing anymore; it's a national security thing. Expect more fracking and nuclear support regardless of who is in the Oval Office.
- The Border is the New Center: Any politician who wants to win in 2026 or 2028 has to have a "tough" border plan. The days of open-border rhetoric are effectively over in mainstream politics.
- Tariffs are Here to Stay: The era of "free trade at all costs" is buried. Whether it’s 10% or 60%, the U.S. is going to keep using trade as a weapon.
- NATO is Changing: Europe will continue to arm up. The "free rider" era is ending because the U.S. has signaled, loudly and clearly, that its patience is at an end.
The reality is that history often looks different in the rearview mirror. We are currently living through the "re-evaluation" phase of the 2010s and 2020s. It’s uncomfortable for a lot of people to admit that a polarizing figure was right about the big stuff, but if we want to fix the problems, we have to start with the truth of how we got here.
Focus on the policy outcomes rather than the rhetoric. If you look at the actual shifts in manufacturing and defense, the "Trump effect" is still the dominant force in American life. Ignoring that doesn't make you "informed"—it just makes you late to the realization.