Checking the gauge. It’s a Sacramento tradition as common as complaining about the I-80 traffic or arguing over which coffee shop has the best cold brew. If you’ve lived in the valley long enough, you know that the Sacramento rain total isn't just a number on the evening news; it’s a vibe check for the entire year. One week we’re dust-dry, and the next, the American River is looking a little too close for comfort.
Right now, as we navigate the 2025–2026 water year, things are looking... interesting. Honestly, "typical" isn't a word we use much around here anymore. According to the latest data from the National Weather Service and the California Nevada River Forecast Center, Sacramento Executive Airport has recorded 9.57 inches of rain as of mid-January 2026.
That puts us at roughly 121% of the normal year-to-date average. It’s a solid start. But if you think that means we can stop worrying about water, you haven't been paying attention to how California plays this game.
The Reality of the Water Year
In Sacramento, we don't track rain from January to December like a normal calendar. That would be too easy. Instead, we use the "Water Year," which kicks off on October 1st and runs through September 30th. It basically follows the cycle of "wait for rain, get the rain, watch the snow melt."
Last year, the 2024–2025 season was a bit of a letdown for the city itself, ending with about 13.81 inches, which is notably below the historical annual average of 18.14 inches. We felt that "split season" energy—the northern basins were getting soaked while we were down here just hoping for a decent drizzle to wash the pollen off our cars.
Breaking Down the Current 2026 Numbers
So, where are we exactly? Let's look at the monthly accumulation for the 95816 area and the downtown core so far this season:
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- October: 1.48 inches
- November: 3.08 inches
- December: 2.03 inches
- January (to date): 1.40 inches
That November spike was huge. It’s what gave us that "early win" feeling. If you remember that week of gray skies and soggy commutes before Thanksgiving, that’s where the bulk of our current surplus came from. It was a classic Northern California "atmospheric river" lite—enough to green up the foothills but not enough to cause the kind of chaos we saw back in the 2023 storms.
Why "Average" is a Lie
The 18.14-inch average is a funny thing. It’s an arithmetic mean, but Sacramento rarely actually hits 18 inches. Usually, we either get 11 inches and a drought panic, or 25 inches and sandbags on the doorstep.
We are currently sitting in a weak La Niña pattern. Traditionally, La Niña means "dry and cold" for Southern California, while Northern California—where we sit—is a toss-up. It's the "Battleground Zone." We can go either way.
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The Department of Water Resources (DWR) actually started the 2026 allocation at 10%, which is a conservative move. Even though our local rain totals look good, the state looks at the big picture: reservoir levels and the Sierra snowpack. Speaking of reservoirs, Lake Oroville is holding steady at about 100% of its historical average for this time of year. That’s the cushion we need because, as anyone who lived through 1977 or 2014 knows, the "Big Dry" can start at any moment.
The Impact of 24-Hour Sprints
Rain in Sacramento is rarely a steady, polite affair. We get these massive 24-hour sprints. For perspective, the all-time record for a single day in Sacramento is 7.24 inches, set way back in April 1880. More recently, in 2021, we saw a record-breaking October storm that dumped over 5 inches in a single day.
When you look at the Sacramento rain total for this year, remember that a "surplus" can be misleading. If we get 5 inches in one day and then nothing for six weeks, the trees still struggle, and the drainage systems get overwhelmed. It's about the timing as much as the total.
Misconceptions About Our Rainfall
People often think Sacramento is "rainy" because it's in Northern California. In reality, we’re a Mediterranean climate. We basically have two seasons: "Brown" and "Green."
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- "The Rain is Over After February": Not true. While November through February is the heavy hitter, March (the "Miracle March" phenomenon) often saves our hides.
- "Above Average Rain Means No Drought": This is the biggest myth. Because of our massive population and agricultural needs, one slightly wet year doesn't erase years of groundwater depletion.
- "It Never Snows": Well, almost never. The record is 3.5 inches from 1888. Most of us just see the occasional "mush" that disappears before the sun comes up.
How to Track This Yourself
If you’re a weather nerd or just want to know if you should reschedule your backyard BBQ, don't just look at the iPhone weather app. It's notoriously generic for the valley.
Check the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). They provide the raw data from the gauges at Sacramento Executive Airport and the Downtown station. You can see the "Accumulation Plot," which shows a blue line (this year) versus a purple line (average). Watching that blue line climb—or flatline—is the best way to see where we're headed.
Actionable Steps for Sacramento Residents
- Adjust your sprinklers: If we’re at 121% of normal, your lawn probably doesn't need a drink. Most city residents over-water in the winter even when it's pouring outside.
- Clear your gutters: Our rain comes in "pulses." A 2-inch day will flood your eaves if they're full of leaves from that big Sycamore in the front yard.
- Watch the snowpack: If you care about water rates and summer restrictions, the rain total in the city matters less than the snow in Blue Canyon. Blue Canyon is currently at 156% of normal, which is fantastic news for our summer water supply.
- Stay informed on "Water Year" updates: The DWR updates allocations monthly. Keep an eye out in February; that's when we'll truly know if the 10% allocation is going to jump or if we're in for a dry spring.
The bottom line? We're doing okay. 9.57 inches isn't a drought, but it isn't a flood either. It's a start. In a state where the weather likes to swing from one extreme to the other, "slightly above average" is a win we should all be happy to take.
Next Steps for Staying Prepared:
Check your local flood zone mapping through the City of Sacramento’s "Know Your Zone" tool. Even in a "normal" year, localized street flooding is common in Midtown and North Sacramento. Ensure your storm drains are clear of debris before the next atmospheric river hits the valley floor. Keep an eye on the February DWR snow survey results, as these will dictate water usage policies for the upcoming summer months.