It is a weird time to be an investor in European defense. If you had looked at the Saab AB stock price a few years ago, you would have seen a steady, somewhat sleepy industrial player known for niche fighter jets and submarines. Fast forward to January 2026, and the picture is unrecognizable. We are seeing numbers that look more like a Silicon Valley tech darling than a 90-year-old hardware manufacturer.
Honestly, the momentum is a bit wild. As of mid-January 2026, the Saab (SAAB-B) share price is hovering around 707 SEK on the Stockholm exchange. In the U.S. markets, the unsponsored ADR (SAABY) has been pushing toward $38. To put that in perspective, the stock has essentially tripled over a rolling two-year window.
But here is the thing: price alone doesn't tell you if a stock is actually "good" or just "expensive."
What Is Actually Moving the Saab AB Stock Price?
It’s easy to point at a map and say "geopolitics," but the actual mechanics are deeper. Saab isn't just benefiting from a general "war vibe" in the markets. They are sitting on a record order backlog that recently topped 202 billion SEK.
Think about that for a second. That is years of guaranteed work already signed, sealed, and delivered.
Just in the last few weeks of late 2025 and early 2026, the company has been on a literal tear with contract wins:
- A massive 12.3 billion SEK order from France for GlobalEye AEW&C aircraft.
- A 3.1 billion EUR deal with Colombia for 17 Gripen E/F fighter jets.
- A 1.5 billion SEK order from the Swedish government for Trackfire Remote Weapon Stations.
- Significant missile orders from Lithuania and radar systems for Sweden.
When these announcements hit the wire, the market reacts. It’s a Pavlovian response at this point. Investors see a "billion" and a "defense contract" in the same sentence, and the buy orders fly. But you've got to look at the margins. Management, led by CEO Micael Johansson, has been incredibly vocal about the fact that they aren't just growing sales—they are growing profitably. Their organic sales growth was hiked to a range of 20% to 24% for 2025, which is staggering for a company that builds heavy, complex machinery.
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The Valuation Gap: Is It Overheated?
Here is where it gets kinda controversial. If you talk to the analysts at Morningstar, they’ll tell you the stock is way overvalued. They’ve pegged the "fair value" closer to 490 SEK.
They aren't necessarily wrong from a traditional fundamental standpoint. A P/E ratio north of 60 is objectively high for an industrial firm. Usually, you’d expect a company like Saab to trade at a P/E of 15 or 20.
But we aren't in a "usual" market.
Traditional valuation models struggle with the current reality of European rearmament. Investors are essentially paying a premium for security and visibility. If you know a company has a backlog that stretches into 2032, you might be willing to pay more for that certainty than you would for a consumer goods company that could lose its market share to a TikTok trend tomorrow.
Breaking Down the Business Segments
Saab isn't just one big factory. It’s split into several business areas that all contribute to the Saab AB stock price in different ways.
- Aeronautics: This is the Gripen fighter jet arm. It’s their "prestige" wing. Recent wins in Thailand and Colombia have finally silenced some of the critics who thought the Gripen couldn't compete with the F-35 on the global stage.
- Dynamics: These guys make the Carl-Gustaf and NLAW anti-tank weapons. If you’ve followed the news over the last three years, you know why this segment is basically printing money. Demand is so high that Saab is building new factories in India and the US just to keep up.
- Surveillance: This is the "brain" of the operation—radars like the Giraffe 1X and the GlobalEye systems. This is actually a high-margin area because it involves so much proprietary software and AI integration.
- Kockums: The naval side. They’re building the Blekinge-class submarines. It’s a smaller part of the revenue pie, but it’s strategically vital for Sweden’s control of the Baltic Sea.
The AI Factor Most People Miss
You don't usually hear "Saab" and "AI" in the same sentence unless someone is talking about a self-driving car from the 2000s that never happened. But the modern defense company is effectively a software house.
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Saab recently invested in Helsing, an AI defense firm. They are integrating AI into the Gripen's electronic warfare suite (the Arexis system). This isn't just marketing fluff. AI in defense means faster target acquisition and better jamming capabilities. For the Saab AB stock price, this shifts the narrative from "metal bender" to "tech innovator," which helps justify those higher P/E multiples we talked about.
Risks to Keep You Level-Headed
It isn't all upward charts and champagne. There are real risks that could tank the stock price if things shift.
Supply chains are a nightmare. Building a fighter jet requires thousands of specialized components from all over the world. If a specific microchip or high-grade titanium supplier falls through, those "record deliveries" get delayed. And when deliveries get delayed, the cash flow turns negative. We actually saw a dip in operational cash flow in late 2025 specifically because Saab was spending so much money upfront to build capacity for future orders.
There’s also the "peace risk." It sounds cynical, but defense stocks are sensitive to the perception of global stability. If major conflicts find a diplomatic resolution, the urgency for rapid rearmament might fade. I’m not saying countries will stop buying weapons, but the rate of growth might slow down. If the growth slows, a stock with a 60x P/E ratio is going to get punished.
What to Watch Next
If you’re tracking the Saab AB stock price, mark February 4, 2026 on your calendar. That is when they are scheduled to release their full-year 2025 results.
The market will be looking for three things:
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- Operating Margin: Did it actually stay above that 10% target?
- Cash Flow: Is the heavy investment in new factories starting to pay off in actual cash, or is it still a "burn" phase?
- 2026 Guidance: Do they think the 20% growth rate is sustainable, or was 2025 a "peak" year?
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you’re looking at Saab right now, don't just chase the green candle.
First, recognize that this is a "Wide Moat" company. It is incredibly hard for a new competitor to start building fighter jets or signals intelligence ships. That gives Saab a level of protection that most businesses dream of.
Second, watch the Swedish Krona (SEK). Since Saab is a Swedish company but sells a lot in EUR and USD, currency fluctuations can mess with their reported earnings. A weak Krona is generally a tailwind for their exports.
Finally, keep an eye on the "book-to-bill" ratio. As long as they are bringing in more orders than they are shipping out (a ratio above 1.0), the long-term story remains intact. Right now, that ratio is healthy, but any significant drop in new order intake would be the first sign that the rally is losing steam.
Keep your position sizes sensible. In a sector this volatile and politically sensitive, "going all in" is usually a recipe for a heart attack.
Next Steps for Tracking Saab AB
To stay ahead of the curve on this stock, you should regularly monitor the Saab Investor Relations portal for regulatory filings. Specifically, look for "Press release - Regulatory" tags, as these indicate major contracts that are legally required to be disclosed under EU Market Abuse Regulations. You should also compare their quarterly EBIT margin against peers like Rheinmetall and BAE Systems to see if Saab is maintaining its competitive efficiency during this period of rapid expansion.