Fantasy football is basically just a high-stakes game of "who’s actually healthy this morning." Honestly, if you aren't staring at a Twitter feed (or whatever we're calling X this month) at 11:45 AM on Sunday, you’re doing it wrong. Week 11 is usually where the wheels fall off. By now, your star RB1 is either a "game-time decision" or playing on a toe that belongs in a medical textbook, not an NFL stadium.
Everyone is obsessed with running back rankings week 11, but most people miss the forest for the trees. They look at the "expert" lists and see Christian McCaffrey at the top and think, "Yeah, obviously." But the real winning happens in the messy middle. It's about finding the guys like Rico Dowdle or TreVeyon Henderson who are suddenly seeing 80% of the snaps because the guy in front of them has a "lower body injury" that sounds suspiciously like a season-ender.
The Elite Tier: It’s Lonelier at the Top Than You Think
Christian McCaffrey is still the king. Let’s just get that out of the way. Even with the nagging injuries he’s dealt with in 2025, when he’s on the field for San Francisco against a team like Arizona, you play him. You don't overthink it. Arizona’s defense has been historically generous to RBs this season, and CMC is the primary benefactor.
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But look at the guys right behind him. Bijan Robinson is finally being used like the superstar he was drafted to be. It took long enough, right? Atlanta is facing Carolina, a team that basically serves as a "get right" game for any struggling offense. If you have Bijan, you’re smiling.
Then there’s De'Von Achane. The Dolphins are playing Washington in Madrid—yes, the international games are still a logistical nightmare for fantasy owners—and Achane’s speed on that grass is a terrifying prospect for a Commanders defense that struggles with lateral movement. He’s a lock.
The Madrid Factor
- De'Von Achane (MIA): High ceiling, but keep an eye on the travel fatigue.
- Ollie Gordon (MIA): Seeing more work, but Achane is the engine.
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS): A sneaky play if you're desperate, but Miami's defense is stout.
Why Rico Dowdle is the Week 11 League Winner
If you told me in August that Rico Dowdle would be a top-10 play in running back rankings week 11, I probably would’ve laughed. But here we are. The Carolina Panthers' offense has actually found a pulse, and it’s entirely because they stopped trying to make Chuba Hubbard the workhorse and leaned into Dowdle’s explosiveness.
He’s averaging over 20 fantasy points per game since Week 9. That isn't a fluke; it's a role change. Atlanta's run defense is... well, it’s not good. They just got shredded by Jonathan Taylor for over 200 yards. Dowdle isn't Taylor, but he’s getting the same kind of volume. If he’s on your bench, you’re leaving points on the table.
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The Injury Landmines: Who to Avoid
This is where it gets sketchy. J.K. Dobbins is out again. It’s heartbreaking, honestly. The guy works so hard to come back, and then the foot gives out. That leaves the Broncos in a weird spot. RJ Harvey is the "next man up," but he’s facing Kansas City. You do not start a backup running back against the Chiefs unless you literally have no other options. Their defensive front is a brick wall.
And then there's the Tampa Bay situation. Bucky Irving has been dealing with foot and shoulder issues for weeks. He’s practicing, sure, but he looks like a shell of himself. Rachaad White is the "safe" play there, but even his ceiling is capped because the Buccaneers love to rotate Sean Tucker in for goal-line work. It's a mess.
- Isiah Pacheco (KC): Still out. Kareem Hunt is the volume king here, even if the efficiency is ugly.
- Rhamondre Stevenson (NE): Out with a toe injury. This opens the door for the rookie, TreVeyon Henderson.
- Josh Jacobs (GB): Keep a close eye on his knee. If he’s out, Emanuel Wilson becomes a must-start against the Giants.
TreVeyon Henderson: The Rookie Breakout is Real
The New England Patriots are a weird team in 2025, but one thing is certain: they’ve found a gem in TreVeyon Henderson. Last week, he turned 15 touches into 150 yards and two scores. That’s absurd.
He’s facing a Jets defense on a short week. The Jets have basically checked out on the season, and their run defense has been porous. Henderson is a "home run hitter"—one touch and he’s gone. In a week where so many big names are hurt, a guy with that kind of explosive upside is gold.
The "I'm Desperate" Tier
Maybe you’re 4-6. Maybe you need a win just to stay in the playoff hunt. You’re looking at the waiver wire and it’s grim.
Look at Jaylen Warren. The Steelers are playing Cincinnati, which is the best matchup a running back could ask for in 2025. Warren has been taking over the lions' share of the carries from Najee Harris (who is on IR). He’s a safe RB2 with RB1 upside because the Bengals just can't stop the run.
Also, don't sleep on Ashton Jeanty in Las Vegas. The Raiders are bad—really bad—but Jeanty is getting 18 to 20 touches a game. He’s playing Dallas, a defense that is currently handing out fantasy points like Halloween candy.
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Quick Matchup Breakdown
| Player | Matchup | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook | vs. TB | High floor, great red zone usage. |
| Javonte Williams | at LV | Revenge game? Maybe. High volume for sure. |
| Breece Hall | at NE | Tough matchup, but you can't bench him. |
| Kyren Williams | vs. SEA | Seattle's defense is hit-or-miss. Kyren is a hit. |
Actionable Next Steps for Your Week 11 Lineup
Stop looking at projected points. They’re a lie told by algorithms that don't account for game script or the fact that a coach might just get "a feeling" about a backup.
First, check the weather. If it’s snowing in Buffalo or raining in Philly, those RBs get a massive boost. Second, look at the Vegas lines. You want running backs on teams that are favored. Why? Because teams that are winning run the ball to kill the clock. It’s not rocket science; it’s football.
Finally, don't be afraid to bench a "name" for a "role." If you're choosing between a hobbled star in a bad matchup and a hot rookie in a great one, take the rookie. Fortune favors the bold in Week 11.
- Check the 11:30 AM EST Inactives: If Josh Jacobs is out, Emanuel Wilson is your top waiver priority.
- Pivot if Necessary: If Bucky Irving is active but "limited," Rachaad White becomes a much stronger PPR play.
- Watch the Madrid Game: The 9:30 AM start time can ruin your week before it starts if you forget to set your lineup.