Football changed on October 28, 2024. Or maybe it just got its soul back. For months, everyone—and I mean everyone—was convinced Vinícius Júnior had the Balón de Oro 2024 in his pocket. Nike had the golden boots ready. Real Madrid had the private jets fueled up. Then, a few hours before the gala at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris, the world went quiet.
The rumors started as a trickle on social media and turned into a flood: Vini wasn't winning.
Real Madrid boycotted the whole thing. No Ancelotti, no Florentino Pérez, no Bellingham. Just an empty row of seats and a very confused audience. In the middle of this storm stood Rodrigo Hernández Cascante, known simply as Rodri. He hobbled onto the stage on crutches, looked out at the crowd, and became the first Spaniard to win the award since Luis Suárez in 1960. It was a victory for the "invisible" player, the guy who doesn't have TikTok dances or a flashy brand, but who basically never loses a game of football.
Why Rodri Actually Won (and Why Vini Lost)
Let’s be real. If this were a popularity contest or a YouTube highlight reel competition, Vinícius wins ten times out of ten. He’s electric. He destroyed Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League final. But the Balón de Oro 2024 criteria changed this year, and people didn't pay enough attention to the fine print.
The organizers, France Football and UEFA, emphasized three things: individual performance, team trophies, and "class and fair play."
That last one is where things get sticky.
Rodri’s season was statistically absurd. He went 74 games unbeaten for club and country. Think about that for a second. He played almost an entire calendar year without feeling the sting of a loss. He won the Premier League with Manchester City and then went to Germany and bossed the midfield to lead Spain to a Euro 2024 title. He was the Player of the Tournament.
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The Midfield General vs. The Wing Wizard
Rodri is the guy who makes the pass before the assist. He’s the tactical heartbeat. While Vini was scoring braces, Rodri was dictating the tempo of entire matches against the best teams in the world.
The voting body, a group of 100 journalists from the top 100 FIFA-ranked nations, clearly valued the "structural" importance of a player this time around. It wasn't just about the goals. It was about who made their team unbeatable. When Rodri doesn't play for City, they look mortal. When he does, they are a machine. That’s the "Rodri Effect."
Many fans argued that if a Spanish midfielder was going to win it for winning the Euros and the league, why didn't Xavi or Iniesta win it in 2010 or 2012? Honestly? They probably should have. But those guys were competing with prime Messi and Ronaldo, who were putting up 60 goals a season. In 2024, the "alien" era is over. The door is open for the humans again.
The Real Madrid Boycott: A Bad Look?
The drama in Paris was peak football soap opera. Real Madrid issued a statement saying that if the criteria didn't designate Vinícius as the winner, then those same criteria should point to Dani Carvajal. Since neither won, Madrid felt "disrespected."
It felt petty.
By skipping the ceremony, they missed seeing Carlo Ancelotti win the Men's Coach of the Year award and the club itself winning Men's Club of the Year. It overshadowed the achievement of Aitana Bonmatí, who won her second consecutive Ballon d'Or Féminin, proving that Barcelona’s women’s team is currently the undisputed gold standard of the sport.
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The Carvajal Paradox
Dani Carvajal actually had a stronger "trophy" argument than anyone. He won the Champions League (scored in the final), won La Liga, and won the Euros. He finished 4th. If you're a defender or a holding mid, you have to be twice as good as a striker to get half the credit. Rodri managed to break that glass ceiling, which is kinda historic.
The Stats That Defined the Balón de Oro 2024
If you look at the raw data, the gap between the top three was probably thinner than we realize.
- Rodri: 12 goals and 15 assists from deep midfield. 93% pass accuracy. Euro 2024 winner. Premier League winner.
- Vinícius Jr: 26 goals and 11 assists. Champions League winner. La Liga winner.
- Jude Bellingham: 23 goals and 13 assists. Exceptional first half of the season, but faded slightly during the Euros despite that overhead kick.
The "eye test" favors Vini. The "spreadsheet" and "control" tests favor Rodri. The journalists chose the spreadsheet.
The fallout from this is still happening. There’s a segment of the fanbase, especially in Brazil and Madrid, that views the Balón de Oro 2024 as "robbed." But if we look at it objectively, Rodri is the best player on the best club team and the best player on the best national team. That’s hard to argue against.
What This Means for the Future of Football Awards
We are officially in the post-Messi/Ronaldo era. The Balón de Oro 2024 proved that the era of the "system" player is here. You don't need to score a hat-trick every week to be considered the best in the world; you just need to be indispensable.
Lamine Yamal winning the Kopa Trophy (best young player) also signaled a massive shift. At 17, he finished 8th in the main rankings. We are watching the transition of power in real-time.
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Misconceptions About the Vote
A common myth circulating is that UEFA "rigged" it because of the European Super League tensions with Real Madrid. There is zero evidence for this. The votes come from independent journalists, not UEFA officials. Each journalist submits a top ten list. It’s a mathematical aggregate. Rodri simply appeared on more lists as the number one pick than Vinícius did.
Another misconception: "Rodri only won because he's Spanish." If that were true, he wouldn't have had to wait until he was 28 and won everything under the sun to finally get recognized. Spain has been producing world-class midfielders for decades who were ignored by this specific trophy.
How to Follow the 2025 Race
If you want to understand who might be on the stage next year, stop looking just at the scoresheet.
- Watch the transitions: Look at the players who recover the ball and start the attack.
- Check the "big game" impact: Did they perform in the quarter-finals and semi-finals, or just stat-pad against bottom-tier teams?
- Availability matters: Rodri’s ACL injury in late 2024 means he likely won't repeat. The 2025 race is wide open for Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappé, or perhaps a resurgent Lamine Yamal.
The Balón de Oro 2024 was a correction. It was a reminder that football is a game of eleven, but it’s governed by the guy in the middle holding the steering wheel. Rodri didn't just win a trophy; he won one for every defensive midfielder who ever got subbed off for a striker in the 80th minute.
To really get the most out of the current football landscape, start paying attention to "Progressive Passes" and "Successful Pressures" on sites like FBRef or Opta. That’s where the next winner is currently hiding. If you're betting on the 2025 winner, keep an eye on the Champions League knockout stages—that’s where the real voting happens.
Actionable Insight: If you're a coach or a student of the game, go back and watch the Spain vs. Germany Euro 2024 match. Don't follow the ball. Follow Rodri. Notice how he positions his body before he even receives a pass. That’s the "invisible" skill that won him the greatest individual prize in sports. For fans, don't let the social media noise fool you; the Balón de Oro has always been about the narrative as much as the numbers, and in 2024, the narrative was about the soul of the midfield.