Horse racing is a weird, beautiful, and sometimes cruel game. Most people only tune in for two minutes on the first Saturday in May, but if you’re trying to figure out who actually stands a chance at Churchill Downs, you’ve gotta look at the road to Kentucky Derby races months before the mint juleps start flowing. It’s not just about winning anymore. Honestly, since Churchill Downs ditched the old graded stakes earnings rule back in 2012 and switched to the points system, the whole vibe of the prep season has shifted.
You used to see horses getting into the Derby just because they banked a massive check in a random sprint in December. Now? You have to prove you can handle distance, and you have to do it when the pressure is highest.
The Math Behind the Roses
The leaderboard is everything. Basically, Churchill Downs designates a specific series of races—the road to Kentucky Derby races—where the top four or five finishers earn points. Early on, in the "Prep Season" (think September through February), the points are low. We’re talking 10-5-3-2-1. Winning the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill or the Remsen at Aqueduct gives you a nice head start, but it doesn't guarantee you a stall in the Derby.
Then everything ramps up.
By the time we hit the "Championship Series" in March and April, the points jump to 100 for a win. That is the golden ticket. If a horse wins the Florida Derby, the Santa Anita Derby, or the Blue Grass Stakes, they are in. Period. But what most people get wrong is focusing only on the winners. Often, it’s the horse that guts out a tough third-place finish in two different 100-point races that ends up being the "wise guy" horse in Louisville. They have the foundation. They’ve seen dirt kicked in their face. They’ve survived the grind.
Why the Prep Path Matters More Than the Speed Figure
Let's talk about the different "paths" because they aren't all created equal. You have the Florida path, the California path, the New York path, and the Arkansas path. Sometimes there's a wild card from Japan or Europe, too.
The Florida path, centered at Gulfstream Park, is usually where the speedballs come from. The track is fast. It’s sandy. If a horse like Forte or White Abarrio wins the Florida Derby, you know they have high-end cruising speed. But then you look at the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. That race is a different beast entirely. It’s often a physical slugfest. When you see a horse come out of Hot Springs, they are usually battle-hardened.
I remember watching horses like American Pharoah use the Arkansas path. It wasn't just that he was fast; it was that the timing of those road to Kentucky Derby races allowed him to peak perfectly.
The New York Grind
People sleep on the New York prep races because the weather is usually garbage in February and March. The Wood Memorial used to be the premier prep, and while it’s lost a little luster compared to the 1970s, it still produces monsters. The track at Aqueduct is often "deep" or "tiring." A horse that wins the Wood Memorial has usually shown they can handle a true mile-and-eighth test of stamina.
Then there’s the synthetic factor. Every few years, a horse will tear up the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park on a Tapeta surface. Handicappers argue about this constantly. Does synthetic form carry over to the dirt at Churchill? Usually, the answer is no, but Rich Strike proved in 2022 that you can never say "never" in this sport. He got into the field at the literal last second and shocked the world at 80-1.
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The Distance Problem
Here is the dirty secret about the road to Kentucky Derby races: most of these horses don't actually want to run a mile and a quarter.
The Derby is a 10-furlong race. Most prep races are 1 1/16 miles or 1 1/8 miles. That final eighth of a mile at Churchill Downs is where dreams go to die. When you’re looking at the points leaderboard, don't just look at who won. Look at the "gallop out." After the finish line of the Louisiana Derby, did the horse keep drawing away? Or did he put his head up and look for the outrider?
Expert trainers like Todd Pletcher or Brad Cox are masters at "peaking" a horse. They don't want the horse to run its best race in the Fountain of Youth in February. They want a "prep" to be exactly that—a preparation. If a horse finishes a closing fourth and the jockey never really asked him for full speed, that horse is dangerous.
Statistics That Actually Count
If you want to sound like you know what you're talking about at a Derby party, keep these numbers in your back pocket:
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Since the points system started in 2013, the favorite has won the Kentucky Derby more often than in the previous era. This is likely because the points system forces the best horses to compete against each other more frequently, weeding out the "fluke" entries.
- The Apollo Curse: For over a century, no horse won the Derby without racing as a two-year-old. Justify broke that in 2018. Since then, the "rules" have been thrown out the window.
- The 100-Point Rule: Almost every winner of the Derby since 2013 has had at least one top-two finish in a 100-point prep race.
- Post Position: It’s a 20-horse field. It's chaos. If a horse relies on a "clean trip" and draws the rail (post 1), their chances drop significantly, regardless of how many points they earned.
How to Follow the Road Without Losing Your Mind
It’s easy to get overwhelmed by the sheer volume of races. Between January and April, there’s a major prep almost every weekend.
Basically, you should focus on the "big three" weekends. The first is in late March with the Louisiana Derby and UAE Derby. The second is the "Super Saturday" featuring the Blue Grass, the Wood Memorial, and the Santa Anita Derby. These are the races that define the field.
If a horse wins the Santa Anita Derby by five lengths, they’ll be the hype horse. But keep an eye on the horse that finished second while wide the entire way. Churchill Downs has a way of rewarding the horses that have had the "toughest" road, not necessarily the easiest one.
Beyond the Triple Crown Hype
The road to Kentucky Derby races isn't just a qualifying series; it's a narrative. You see the owners' colors, the jockey changes, and the injury reports that break hearts. It’s a high-stakes poker game played with 1,200-pound athletes.
One thing that's changed recently is the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. We’re seeing more international involvement than ever. Horses like Derma Sotogake and Forever Young have proven that the Japanese contingent is no longer just a curiosity—they are a legitimate threat to win the whole thing. They have their own point system and their own path, usually culminating in the UAE Derby in Dubai.
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Actionable Steps for the Aspiring Handicapper
If you’re looking to actually make some money or just have a better understanding of the field, stop looking at the "wins" column.
- Watch the Replays: Go to YouTube or the NYRA website. Look at the last 200 yards of the Risen Star or the Rebel Stakes. Is the horse straining, or is the jockey sitting chilly?
- Check the Pedigree: Look for "dosage." If a horse is sired by a sprinter (like a son of Into Mischief), they might struggle at the 1 1/4 mile distance unless there is some serious stamina on the dam's side.
- Track the Workouts: Once the horses arrive at Churchill Downs in late April, the "morning works" are vital. Some horses hate the Churchill surface. It’s "sandy" and "cuppy." If a horse is skipping over it in the morning, they’ll run big on Saturday.
- Follow the Points Leaderboard: Churchill Downs updates this weekly. It tells you who is "safe" and who is "on the bubble." The horses on the bubble often have to run in "desperation" races, which can take a lot out of them before the big day.
The road is long, dusty, and incredibly expensive for the owners. For us? It's the best theater in sports. Just remember that the horse that looks like a god in February often looks like a mortal by May. Betting the Derby is about finding the horse that is still improving when everyone else has hit their ceiling.
Keep an eye on the late-developing colts in the Arkansas Derby. That’s usually where the value hides.