Rocket Lab is having a moment. No, seriously. If you’ve been watching the ticker lately, you know it’s less of a steady climb and more of a vertical burn. On Friday, January 16, 2026, RKLB closed at $96.30, marking a massive 6.1% jump in a single session. This wasn't just some random meme-stock rally; it was fueled by a heavyweight endorsement from Morgan Stanley, which slapped a shiny new $105 price target on the company.
Honestly, the energy around the rklb stock price today per share feels different than it did a year ago. Back then, people were arguing about whether a "small-launch" company could ever truly rival SpaceX. Now? The conversation has shifted entirely toward Rocket Lab's massive $816 million contract with the Space Development Agency (SDA) and the fast-approaching debut of their medium-lift Neutron rocket.
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The Morgan Stanley Effect and the $105 Target
Wall Street is notoriously fickle, but when Kristine Liwag at Morgan Stanley flips from "Equal Weight" to "Overweight," people lean in. She basically told the market that 2026 is the year of "market maturation" for space tech.
The upgrade wasn't just about rockets. It was about the fact that Rocket Lab is becoming a "multi-faceted space company." They aren't just the guys who launch small satellites anymore. They’re building the satellites themselves. They're winning defense contracts that used to be reserved for the old-guard giants.
What’s wild is the volatility. Just a day before this rally, the stock was sitting around $90.76. It hit an intraday high of **$99.58**—literally pennies away from that psychological $100 barrier—before settling back a bit. If you’re trading this, you’ve probably noticed the 52-week range is a total rollercoaster, swinging from a low of $14.71 all the way to today's heights.
Why Everyone is Obsessed with Neutron
You can't talk about the rklb stock price today per share without talking about Neutron. It’s the elephant in the room. Or rather, the "Hungry Hippo" in the room, given the rocket's unique fairing design.
For a long time, Rocket Lab was the king of the small-sat world with their Electron rocket. They’ve done 21 successful launches in 2025 alone. But Electron is a scout ship; Neutron is the battleship. It’s designed to carry 13,000 kg to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) while being partially reusable.
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The Neutron Timeline (As of Jan 2026):
- Launch Complex 3 (Virginia): Finished and ready.
- Qualification Testing: Scheduled for Q1 2026.
- Maiden Flight: Targeted for mid-2026.
- Archimedes Engine: Hot-fire tests are ongoing at the Stennis Space Center.
Investors are pricing in the success of this rocket right now. If Neutron flies on time, the current $96 price tag might look like a bargain. If it slips into 2027? Expect a sharp correction. KeyBanc actually downgraded the stock to "Sector Weight" recently just because they think all this "good news" is already baked into the price. They aren't bears, necessarily; they're just worried there’s no "margin for error" left at these valuations.
The Defense Pivot: More Than Just Rockets
The real reason the market cap just crossed the $51 billion mark isn't just because Peter Beck is a charismatic CEO. It’s because of the **$816 million SDA contract**.
Rocket Lab is now a prime contractor. They are designing and building 18 missile-warning and tracking satellites for the U.S. government. This is a massive shift. Historically, launch providers were just the "delivery guys." By building the actual "cargo" (the satellites), Rocket Lab is capturing a much larger slice of the space economy pie.
The margins on space systems (satellites and components) are generally much better than the margins on launches. In Q3 2025, they reported a record GAAP gross margin of 37%. When you compare that to the negative margins they had just a few years ago, the transformation is pretty stunning.
What Most People Get Wrong About RKLB
A lot of retail investors see Rocket Lab as "SpaceX Junior." That's a mistake.
While SpaceX is focused on Mars and Starship—massive, world-changing projects—Rocket Lab has carved out a niche in "responsive space." They can launch on short notice from multiple hemispheres (New Zealand and Virginia). They are the "bespoke" option for the Pentagon.
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Also, keep an eye on the insider selling. Earlier this week, director Merline Saintil sold off about 96,000 shares, and the Chief Commercial Officer, Frank Klein, offloaded 100,000 shares earlier this month. Some people freak out when they see "insider selling," but honestly, when a stock has run up 250% in a year, people are going to take some profits. It’s human nature.
What to Watch Next
If you’re holding or looking to enter, the next big "hard catalyst" is the earnings report on February 26, 2026.
Analysts are looking for revenue in the $170 million to $180 million range for the quarter. But more importantly, everyone wants to hear Peter Beck give an update on the Archimedes engine. Any hint of a delay in the engine testing will hit the stock harder than a failed stage separation.
The technicals are also screaming. The stock is currently trading at its all-time high. It has officially broken out of every previous resistance level. Whether it can hold $90 as a new floor is the big question for the coming weeks.
Actionable Insights for Investors:
- Monitor the $100 Level: This is a huge psychological barrier. If the stock can close above $100 and stay there for three consecutive sessions, it often signals a new leg up toward Morgan Stanley's $105 target.
- Watch the NASA Wallops News: Any updates regarding "qualification testing" at Launch Complex 3 in Virginia will be market-movers. This is where Neutron will live and breathe.
- Earnings Expectations: Don't just look at the EPS (earnings per share). Look at the backlog conversion. Rocket Lab has over $1 billion in backlog; how fast they turn those contracts into actual cash is what determines the long-term share price.
- Hedge for Volatility: RKLB has moved more than 5% on 75 different occasions over the past year. This is not a "set it and forget it" blue-chip stock. If you can't stomach a 10% drop in a week, use trailing stops.
The space race in 2026 isn't about who gets to the moon first; it's about who owns the infrastructure of Earth's orbit. Right now, Rocket Lab is making a very loud case that they are the essential number two player in the Western world.