Germany is changing. Fast. If you haven't looked at a map of German politics since the 2025 federal elections, you’re basically looking at a different country. The old "firewall"—that invisible line that kept right wing german parties away from any real power—is looking more like a picket fence with half the slats missing. Honestly, the shift isn't just a "swing of the pendulum" anymore. It's a structural realignment that has the European Union sweating.
Back in February 2025, when the snap elections hit after the "traffic light" coalition collapsed, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) didn't just grow. They exploded. They pulled in 20.8% of the vote, making them the second-largest force in the Bundestag. Now, in early 2026, the polls for upcoming state elections in places like Saxony-Anhalt are showing them hitting 40%. Think about that. Nearly one in two people in some regions is ready to put a party labeled "extremist" by the domestic intelligence agency into the driver's seat.
The Big One: AfD and the New Normal
The Alternative für Deutschland is the elephant in the room. They started years ago as a bunch of academics grumpy about the Euro. Now? They’ve rebranded. Under Alice Weidel, they’ve ditched the dusty professor vibe for a high-gloss, TikTok-heavy campaign. They talk about "remigration" and ending climate mandates, and it’s working.
People often think the AfD is just a bunch of angry voters in the East. That’s a mistake. While they are the strongest force in the former East Germany (hitting 32% there in the 2025 election), they've also jumped to 18% in the West. They are drawing from everyone: blue-collar workers who feel the SPD abandoned them, and even young people who are tired of high energy costs.
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Why the 2025 Election Changed Everything
For years, the CDU (the big conservative party) said they would never work with the AfD. Friedrich Merz, the current Chancellor leading a shaky coalition, has tried to keep that "firewall" up. But the math is getting impossible. When you have a party sitting at 25-27% nationally, you can't just ignore them and expect a stable government. The AfD currently holds 152 seats in the Bundestag. They aren't just a protest group anymore; they are a legislative powerhouse.
The Wildcards: BSW and the WerteUnion
Politics in Germany used to be simple. Left was left, right was right. Then Sahra Wagenknecht showed up with her BSW. Is it one of the right wing german parties? Technically, no. They call themselves "Left-wing Conservative." But if you look at their voters, it’s a total crossover. They want big welfare states but also strict immigration controls and a stop to arms shipments to Ukraine.
"The AfD and BSW might seem like opposites, but they share a history of pro-Russian views and a deep skepticism of the EU's liberal order." — Recent analysis by political scientist Janine Patz.
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Then there’s the WerteUnion (Values Union). Founded as a party in early 2024 by Hans-Georg Maaßen, the former head of Germany’s domestic intelligence (the BfV). It’s a weird spot to be in. Maaßen’s party wants to be the "real" CDU, but they are stuck between a moderate mainstream and a radical AfD. They haven't hit the big leagues yet, but they represent the splintering of the German right.
Why This Matters for 2026
We are looking at five regional elections this year. Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania are the big ones to watch. In these states, the AfD is the frontrunner. If they win an absolute majority, or if the CDU finally breaks and forms a coalition with them, the "Berlin Republic" as we know it is over.
It isn't just about immigration. It’s about the economy. Germany has seen years of stagnation. When people see their heating bills double while the government talks about "Green energy transitions," they look for alternatives. The AfD has been smart. They’ve framed themselves as the party of "economic reason" for the little guy.
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Common Misconceptions
- "It's just the East." False. The AfD is making massive gains in Western industrial hubs.
- "They'll be banned." Highly unlikely. While the BfV monitors them, the legal bar to ban a party with 20% of the vote is astronomically high and would likely trigger civil unrest.
- "It's only about racism." That’s too simple. A huge chunk of the vote is about energy costs, distrust of the EU, and a feeling that Berlin is out of touch with rural life.
Navigating the Shift
If you’re watching Germany from the outside, you have to look past the headlines. This isn't a temporary spike. The fragmentation of the political center means that the old ways of governing are dying. The CDU and SPD—the "Volksparteien"—combined barely got 45% of the vote last year.
What to do now:
Keep a close eye on the state election results in September 2026. These will be the "canaries in the coal mine." If the AfD manages to appoint a State Premier, it will force a constitutional crisis. Also, watch the Trump administration’s relationship with Berlin. There have already been reports of the U.S. considering sanctions on German intelligence officials for their surveillance of the AfD, which the U.S. sees as a "freedom of expression" issue.
Stay informed by following local German outlets like Der Spiegel or Deutsche Welle, but always check the polling data from institutes like Infratest dimap or Forsa. The narrative is often more dramatic than the numbers, but the numbers in 2026 are plenty dramatic on their own.
Next Steps for Readers:
- Monitor the Polls: Check the "Sonntagsfrage" (Sunday Question) polls monthly to see if the AfD's national lead holds.
- Watch the East: Focus on Saxony-Anhalt’s legislative moves; it’s the testing ground for right-wing policy in 2026.
- Evaluate Energy Policy: Observe how the Merz government adjusts climate targets to win back voters from the right.