If you’ve been watching the quantum sector lately, you know it’s been a wild ride. Honestly, it’s a bit of a rollercoaster. Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) just dropped some major updates, and if you’re holding the stock or thinking about it, there is a lot to chew on. The big headline? They’ve pushed back the launch of their 108-qubit system.
It was supposed to be out by now. Instead, the "Cepheus-1-108Q" is now slated for the end of the first quarter of 2026.
Investors reacted. Obviously. The stock has seen some intraday jumps of 3.6% recently, but it’s also facing some heavy gravity. When a company says they need "one more chip iteration," it usually means they hit a technical wall. In this case, it's the tunable couplers. They’re trying to hit that magic 99.5% fidelity mark, and they aren't quite there yet on the 108-qubit scale.
Rigetti Computing Stock News: The Reality of the Roadmap
Look, quantum is hard. Like, incredibly hard. Rigetti is betting the house on a modular "chiplet" architecture. Basically, instead of trying to build one giant, perfect chip, they tile smaller 9-qubit chips together. It’s a smart way to scale, but the "glue" that connects those chips—the couplers—is where the headaches happen.
Right now, their 36-qubit system (Cepheus-1-36Q) is doing great. It’s hitting 99.6% fidelity. But as you add more chips to the mix, the noise increases. The 108-qubit system is currently sitting at about 99% fidelity. That sounds high, but in quantum, 99% is basically a failing grade for long-term error correction. They need that extra 0.5% to stay competitive.
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What the Analysts are Saying
Wall Street is split. You've got Rosenblatt Securities leaning in hard with a "Buy" rating and a $40 price target. That’s a massive upside considering where the stock has been hovering. Then you have the skeptics over at places like Seeking Alpha calling it a "falling knife."
The math is pretty brutal if you just look at the balance sheet:
- Revenue: Around $1.9 million last quarter.
- Net Loss: Over $200 million.
- Cash Position: Roughly $558 million.
The good news? That cash pile is actually decent. They raised $350 million through an equity offering in mid-2025, so they aren't going to go dark tomorrow. They have enough runway to get through 2026, but they have to start showing real revenue, not just research grants.
The Government Lifeline
One thing that might save the day is Uncle Sam. The U.S. National Quantum Initiative (NQI) just got a fresh $625 million in funding. Rigetti’s CEO, Subodh Kulkarni, has been pretty vocal about how the lapse in government funding hurt their revenue in late 2025. Now that the tap is back on, we should see some of those federal dollars flow back into Rigetti’s pockets.
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They also snagged a $5.8 million contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) for quantum networking. It’s not a billion-dollar deal, but it matters. It shows that the Department of Defense still thinks Rigetti’s hardware is worth testing.
Competition is Getting Crowded
Rigetti isn't alone in this sandbox. IonQ is currently the "it" girl of the quantum world, showing off 99.99% fidelity with their trapped-ion tech. While Rigetti's superconducting qubits are faster (we’re talking 50-70 nanoseconds vs. the much slower ion traps), IonQ is currently winning on accuracy.
There's also the DARPA factor. Rigetti didn't make the cut for "Stage B" of a major DARPA benchmarking initiative recently, while IonQ did. That stung. It’s part of why the stock has been under pressure. If you can’t win the DARPA beauty pageant, investors start to wonder if your tech is falling behind.
Why the NVIDIA Partnership Matters
If there’s a silver lining, it’s the NVIDIA connection. Rigetti is supporting NVIDIA’s NVQLink. This is basically a way to hook up quantum computers to AI supercomputers.
Think of it this way: AI is great at most things, but it hits a wall with certain types of chemistry or optimization problems. Quantum is supposed to be the "accelerator" for those specific tasks. By making their hardware play nice with NVIDIA, Rigetti is positioning itself to be part of the future AI data center.
What to Watch Next
The next big date is March 5, 2026. That’s when the next earnings report drops. Don’t expect a profit—nobody expects that. What you should look for is any further delay on the 108-qubit system. If it slips into Q2 or Q3, the market will likely punish the stock.
However, they are also supposed to deliver two "Novera" systems to customers in the first half of 2026. These are on-premises systems. Selling actual hardware that people put in their own labs is a huge step toward a real business model.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you’re looking at rigetti computing stock news as a signal to buy, keep these points in mind:
- High Volatility: This isn't a "widows and orphans" stock. It moves 5% or 10% on a whim. Only use "play money."
- Watch the 99.5% Mark: Technical milestones are more important than revenue right now. If they hit 99.5% fidelity on the 108-qubit chip, the stock will likely pop.
- Government Dependency: Keep an eye on NQI reauthorization and defense spending. Rigetti lives and dies by federal contracts right now.
- The 1,000-Qubit Goal: They have a target for a 1,000+ qubit system by late 2027. That’s the "North Star." Any progress toward that is a long-term bullish sign.
The bottom line? Rigetti is a high-stakes bet on superconducting qubits. They have the cash to survive 2026, but the technical delays are starting to test investor patience. If they can stick the landing on the 108-qubit system this March, they might just prove the skeptics wrong.
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To stay ahead, you should monitor the Federal Procurement Data System for new AFRL or DOE task orders assigned to Rigetti, as these often precede official press releases. Additionally, tracking the median two-qubit gate fidelity updates in their quarterly "Technology Roadmap" slides will tell you more about the stock's health than the actual EPS numbers ever will.