Quantum computing feels like science-fiction until you look at the volatility of Rigetti Computing Inc. stock. Honestly, if you’ve been watching the tickers lately, it’s a total rollercoaster. One day the world is convinced quantum chips will crack every password on the planet by next Tuesday; the next, everyone remembers that keeping these things cold enough to actually work is a logistical nightmare.
Rigetti is a weird one. Unlike some of their rivals who just design the "brains" of the computer and outsource the rest, Rigetti builds the whole stack. They’ve got their own fabrication facility in Fremont—the first of its kind—and they’re trying to scale superconducting qubits while the rest of the market argues over whether "ion traps" or "neutral atoms" are the better bet.
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The Reality of Rigetti Computing Inc. Stock in 2026
The stock, currently trading around $25.62, is a far cry from the $56 highs we saw back in October 2025. That was a wild time. Everyone was piling into "pure-play" quantum stocks, fueled by rumors of government equity stakes and massive AI-integration deals. But then the air started leaking out of the balloon.
You’ve gotta look at the numbers to see why the market is so split. For the third quarter of 2025, Rigetti reported revenues of just $1.9 million. That’s tiny. For a company valued in the billions, $1.9 million feels like a rounding error at a mid-sized law firm.
But investors aren't buying the revenue; they’re buying the roadmap.
Right now, the company is pivoting. They just missed out on a major military contract that went to a competitor, which hurt. However, they've secured a $5.8 million contract with the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to work on quantum networking. It’s a game of small wins while waiting for the "Quantum Advantage" moment—the point where a quantum computer finally does something useful that a classical supercomputer simply cannot.
Qubits and the Chiplet Strategy
What makes Rigetti actually interesting—and why the stock hasn't totally collapsed—is their Ankaa-3 system. It’s an 84-qubit processor, but they’re already talking about the Cepheus™-1 system which aims for 108 qubits.
They use a "chiplet" approach. Basically, instead of trying to build one giant, perfect chip (which is almost impossible because of defects), they're stitching smaller chips together. It’s sort of like Lego. If one piece breaks, you don't throw away the whole castle.
The goal? A 1,000+ qubit system by late 2027.
Why the NVIDIA Partnership Matters
You can't talk about Rigetti Computing Inc. stock without mentioning NVIDIA. In late 2025, Rigetti announced support for NVQLink. This is basically a bridge that lets NVIDIA's AI supercomputers talk to Rigetti’s quantum computers.
Hybrid is the word of the year.
Most experts, like Dr. Subodh Kulkarni (Rigetti’s CEO), think the future isn't "Quantum vs. AI." It's "Quantum for AI." If you can use a quantum chip to speed up the training of a massive neural network, you’ve basically found the Holy Grail of 2026 tech. This partnership gives Rigetti a seat at the table with the big boys, even if their quarterly earnings still look a bit anaemic.
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The Cash Burn Problem
Let's be real: Rigetti burns cash. A lot of it.
They ended Q3 2025 with about $600 million in the bank, mostly thanks to some savvy warrant exercises. That sounds like a lot until you see they’re losing over $20 million a quarter on operations alone. Their GAAP net loss recently spiked to $201 million, though a lot of that was non-cash accounting noise.
The "runway" is the only thing that matters. If they can get to their 150-qubit milestone by the end of 2026 without having to dilute the stock even further, they might survive. If they hit another technical snag? The market is going to be brutal.
Comparing Rigetti to the "Big Three"
If you're looking at Rigetti Computing Inc. stock, you’re probably also looking at IonQ and D-Wave.
- IonQ is the current darling. They’ve got a higher valuation and, frankly, better revenue growth right now.
- D-Wave is the outlier, focusing on "annealing" which is great for optimization problems but maybe less flexible for general-purpose computing.
- Rigetti is the vertical integrator. They make the chips, the software, and the fridge.
It’s a high-stakes bet on manufacturing. If Rigetti’s Fab-1 facility can consistently produce higher-fidelity chips than the competition can buy from third-party foundries, they win. But being your own manufacturer is expensive. You have to pay for the machines whether you’re selling 100 chips or zero.
The Dilution Trap
One thing that drives retail investors crazy is the dilution. Rigetti has increased its share count by roughly 160% over the last few years. Every time they need more cash for R&D, they issue more stock. This means even if the company succeeds, your individual slice of the pie might get smaller.
Analysts are still mostly bullish, though. The consensus is a "Moderate Buy" with price targets sitting around $32.10. That’s about a 25% upside from where we are today.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you’re thinking about jumping into Rigetti Computing Inc. stock, don't treat it like a blue-chip dividend play. It’s more like a call option on the future of physics.
- Watch the Gate Fidelity: Qubit count is a vanity metric. What matters is "gate fidelity." Rigetti is aiming for 99.5% on their 100+ qubit system. If they miss this, the computer is just a very expensive noise generator.
- Follow the Novera Sales: Rigetti started selling the Novera QPU as an on-premises system for about $5.7 million. This is a big shift from just selling cloud access. If they can land five or ten more of these "fridge-in-a-box" deals in 2026, it proves there's a real market for private quantum hardware.
- Monitor the Macro: Quantum stocks are high-beta. When the Nasdaq 100 dips, these stocks crater. When the market is "risk-on," they fly. Don't be the person who buys at the top of a meme-stock rally.
- Mind the 1,000-Qubit Milestone: The roadmap says 1,000 qubits by 2027. This is the "make or break" number. If they get there, they can theoretically start performing error correction, which is the key to actually solving real-world problems in chemistry and finance.
Rigetti is a bet on the underdog. They aren't as well-funded as IBM or Google, and they don't have the current momentum of IonQ. But they own their entire supply chain, and in a world where hardware is king, that might just be the winning play.