Rhode Island weather is a mood. Honestly, if you’ve lived here long enough, you know the drill: one day you’re digging out your car after a clipper, and the next, you’re wondering if it’s weird to wear a light fleece to Roger Williams Park.
As we look at the extended weather forecast for Rhode Island through the rest of January and into February 2026, things are getting a little weird. We are currently sitting in a weak La Niña pattern. Normally, that means "warm and wet" for the East Coast, but the atmosphere doesn't always read the script.
Right now, we are coming off a messy stretch. Today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, we’ve got light snow hanging around with a high of 37°F and a low of 31°F. It’s that classic New England damp cold where the 93% humidity makes it feel way worse than the thermometer says.
The Short-Term Shiver
Tomorrow is going to be a shock to the system. Monday, January 19, looks sunny but the mercury is dropping to a high of 32°F and a brutal low of 18°F. If you’re commuting, watch out for the wind—it’ll be kicking at 15 mph from the southwest, making the "real feel" pretty nasty.
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Tuesday is the real winner for the "stay inside" award. We’re looking at a high of only 23°F. At night? A bone-chilling 12°F. Basically, it's the kind of weather where your nose hairs freeze the second you step out of the house.
February: The Rain-Snow Rollercoaster
Everyone asks the same thing every year: "Are we getting a real blizzard?"
The long-range data from the National Weather Service and the Old Farmer’s Almanac suggest that February 2026 is going to be a month of dramatic swings. While the first week of February looks rainy and milder (classic La Niña), don't put the shovels away. There’s a signal for a significant cold snap between February 5th and 9th, followed by a potential snowstorm for the north part of the state toward the end of the month, specifically around February 25-28.
- Average January High: 38°F (Historical normal)
- 2026 Reality: We're trending a bit colder this week, but February is predicted to end up 5°F above average overall.
- The "Dry" Factor: Despite the flurries today, January is actually looking to finish about 2 inches below average for total precipitation.
Why the Forecast Keeps Changing
Predictions aren't promises.
Meteorologists at the Climate Prediction Center are watching the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). When the NAO goes negative, the jet stream starts wobbling like a loose garden hose. This allows Arctic air to dump into Providence even when the rest of the country is warm. That’s why you might see a forecast for 45°F on a Wednesday and then wake up to 10 inches of snow on Friday.
The "Pacific Warm Blob"—a massive area of warm water south of Alaska—is also messing with the jet stream. It builds ridges in the West, which often forces a cold trough right over our heads in New England.
What You Should Actually Do
Stop trusting the 14-day app icons blindly. They change every six hours. Instead, keep an eye on the "wind direction" in your local report. When we see winds shifting to the northwest, that's your cue that the Canadian air is coming for us.
If you’re planning travel, the window between January 21 and January 25 looks relatively stable, though cold. Highs will hover in the 30s and 40s before another dip.
Next Steps for Rhode Islanders:
- Check your salt supply now: February’s "rain-to-freeze" cycles are notorious for creating black ice on I-95.
- Monitor the late February window: That 25th-28th timeframe has "Nor'easter potential" written all over it in the long-range models.
- Watch the humidity: On days like today where it's near 100%, pipes are more prone to freezing if the temp drops fast. Keep the cabinet doors open under your sinks during those 12°F nights on Tuesday.
Stay warm out there. It’s going to be a long road to spring.