It is a weird time to be a Reds fan. Honestly.
We just watched this team "squeak" into the 2025 postseason, and instead of the front office going for the jugular, we're hearing the same old song about "budget constraints." Nick Krall, the President of Baseball Operations, has basically confirmed that the 2026 payroll is going to stay flat at roughly $112 million to $116 million. That is not much wiggle room when you consider guys like Brady Singer and Gavin Lux are eating up bigger chunks of the pie through arbitration.
But here is the thing about reds mlb trade rumors right now: the surplus is real.
The Reds have a mountain of starting pitching. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, and Chase Burns are all here. Then you have Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty waiting in the wings, plus guys like Brandon Williamson coming back from injury. You simply cannot start eight people in a five-man rotation. This creates a fascinating, albeit frustrating, scenario where Cincinnati might have to trade away a "good" pitcher just to find someone who can actually hit a baseball over the fence.
The Brady Singer Conundrum: Trade Him or Keep Him?
If you've been following the latest buzz, Brady Singer is the name that keeps popping up. The Reds and Singer just dodged arbitration by agreeing to a $12.75 million deal for 2026. That is a lot of cash for this specific ownership group. He’s in his final year before free agency, and he’s coming off a season where he ate 169.2 innings with a 4.03 ERA.
He’s valuable. But is he $12.75 million worth of valuable to a team that desperately needs a power bat?
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Some analysts, including those over at Blog Red Machine, have floated the idea of swapping Singer for an outfielder like Taylor Ward from the Angels. Ward's salary would likely mirror Singer's, making it a "one-for-one" swap that doesn't hurt the bank account. It makes too much sense, which is probably why it hasn't happened yet. If Krall keeps Singer, he’s betting that the rotation's stability is worth more than adding a 25-home-run threat to the middle of the order. It’s a risky bet.
Why Nick Lodolo Is Suddenly a Trade Target
Wait. Trade Lodolo? The guy who just posted a 3.33 ERA and struck out 156 batters in 156.2 innings?
Yes.
The reds mlb trade rumors surrounding Lodolo aren't because the team wants to get rid of him. It’s because he’s the ultimate "sell high" candidate. He is a left-handed starter with two years of control left, earning a modest $4.725 million in 2026. In a market where mid-level starters are getting $15 million a year in free agency, Lodolo is a gold mine.
Imagine what a team like the Red Sox or the Braves would give up for that. There has been speculation about a deal involving Lodolo for someone like Jarren Duran or even Michael Harris II (though the Harris rumors are a bit of a stretch given his long-term contract). If the Reds want a true "impact" bat—not just a platoon piece like JJ Bleday or Dane Myers—they have to be willing to part with a piece of the rotation that actually hurts to lose.
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The Recent Bullpen Facelift
While everyone is focused on the "Big Trade," Krall has been quietly tinkering with the relief corps.
- Pierce Johnson: Just signed a $6.5 million deal for 2026. He’s 34, but his strikeout rates are still legit.
- Emilio Pagán: Re-signed to be the closer.
- Caleb Ferguson: Brought in to provide a veteran left-handed look.
- Josh Staumont: Signed to a minor league deal to see if he can recapture that old Royals magic.
By loading up on these mid-tier veterans and minor-league flyers, the front office is signaling that they might be comfortable moving a "starter" to the bullpen or trading a starter away entirely. They are building a safety net.
The "Internal Growth" Trap
There is a segment of the fan base that thinks the Reds don't need to trade for hitting. They point to Matt McLain coming back from his shoulder surgery or Noelvi Marte entering a "breakout" year.
That is a dangerous game.
McLain struggled significantly in 2025, which isn't shocking for someone coming off major shoulder surgery, but you can't guarantee he returns to his 2023 form. Then there's Sal Stewart. He’s the shiny new toy, but he’s likely going to be a DH or a 1B/3B hybrid. Adding him to a lineup that already includes Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer is great, but it doesn't solve the lack of veteran presence in the middle of the order.
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The Reds finished near the bottom of the league in OPS and home runs among playoff teams last year. Swapping out Austin Hays and Miguel Andujar for JJ Bleday—who is basically a platoon player—doesn't feel like an upgrade. It feels like treading water.
What to Watch For Next
The clock is ticking. Spring Training is right around the corner, and the 40-man roster is tight. After the Reds signed Pierce Johnson, they had to move guys like Lyon Richardson and Keegan Thompson off the roster. There isn't much "dead weight" left to cut.
If a move is going to happen, it’s probably going to involve one of the "surplus" arms.
Keep an eye on the "starter-needy" teams. The Orioles, Red Sox, and even the Dodgers (who are always looking for arms) could be partners. The Reds have the pitching depth to survive a trade; the question is whether they have the guts to pull the trigger on a deal that actually changes the ceiling of this team.
Actionable Insights for Following the Rumor Mill:
- Monitor the 40-man roster: Any new minor league signing with an invite to camp usually means someone else is on the bubble.
- Watch the arbitration hearings: If the Reds go to a hearing with someone like Tyler Stephenson, it might indicate a breakdown in long-term talks, making them more likely to be moved.
- Look at the "second-tier" trade market: The Reds rarely land the "superstar" (sorry, no Luis Robert Jr. likely), so focus on guys with 1-2 years of control left on teams looking to shed salary.
The next few weeks will tell us if Cincinnati is serious about winning the NL Central or if they are just happy to be "competitive."