The stove in Boston isn't just hot; it’s basically melting the floorboards at Fenway.
If you’ve spent any time on social media or sports talk radio this week, you know the deal. The Red Sox just backed up the Brink’s truck for Ranger Suárez, giving him a five-year, $130 million contract to anchor a rotation that suddenly looks... actually good? It’s a weird feeling for Sox fans who have spent years begging for a real ace. But with Suárez in the fold alongside Sonny Gray and Garrett Crochet, the front office has a new problem. They have too many bodies in the outfield and a massive hole at second or third base.
Naturally, the Red Sox trade rumors are swirling around Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu.
Honestly, it feels like we’ve been talking about trading an outfielder for three years straight. It’s the "surplus" that never ends. But here in January 2026, the math has changed. Alex Bregman is a Chicago Cub. Bo Bichette is a New York Met. The free-agent market for impact bats is basically a ghost town, leaving Craig Breslow with one real move left: trading from a position of strength to fix a glaring weakness in the dirt.
The Jarren Duran Dilemma: Star Power vs. Trade Chip
Let’s talk about Jarren Duran first because he’s the name that makes everyone's pulse race.
Duran is coming off a 2025 where he put up a 4.7 bWAR and a .774 OPS. Those are "very good" numbers, but they’re a step back from his monstrous 2024 breakout where he was the All-Star Game MVP. Still, the guy is a blur on the bases and plays with an intensity that this team desperately needs.
The catch? His contract.
The Red Sox did some weird accounting earlier this winter, declining his $8 million option only to re-sign him to a one-year, $7.7 million deal. On paper, it saved them $300,000—peanuts for a team with a $200 million payroll. But in the world of MLB trade value, it was a signal. By keeping his base salary lower, the Sox effectively lowered his future arbitration raises for 2027 and 2028. He’s more "cost-controlled" now than he was two months ago.
Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic has been pretty clear that while Roman Anthony is "off the table," Duran is the most likely candidate to be moved. Why? Because teams like the Arizona Diamondbacks and Houston Astros are reportedly "coveting" him. The Astros would reportedly "jump" at a chance to swap Isaac Paredes for Duran, though Paredes’ defense is... let's just say "adventurous."
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Then there’s the Ketel Marte dream. If the Red Sox want to actually replace the production they lost when Bregman signed elsewhere, Marte is the guy. But Arizona isn't just giving him away. It would likely take Duran plus one of the high-ceiling young arms like Peyton Tolle or Connelly Early to even get Mike Hazen to pick up the phone.
Why Wilyer Abreu Might Be Staying Put
Then we have Wilyer Abreu.
If Duran is the lightning, Abreu is the steady, gold-gloved anchor. He’s 26, has four years of team control left, and just won his second straight Gold Glove in right field. In 2025, he hit .247 with 22 home runs and a 116 OPS+.
Basically, he’s a winning player who doesn't cost anything.
The Red Sox trade rumors regarding Abreu are different than the Duran talk. While teams certainly ask about him, the Red Sox seem much more hesitant to let him go. He’s making $780,000. In a world where mediocre relievers get $10 million, a 3-WAR outfielder for less than a million dollars is the ultimate roster cheat code.
Also, consider the lineup balance. The Red Sox are incredibly left-handed. Duran is a lefty. Abreu is a lefty. Roman Anthony is a lefty. Triston Casas is a lefty. If you trade Duran, you’re still left-heavy, but you’ve lost the veteran speed. If you trade Abreu, you’ve lost the best defensive outfielder on the team.
It’s a "pick your poison" scenario for Breslow.
The Mets Factor and the Brett Baty Connection
Here is where it gets interesting. Now that the Mets signed Bo Bichette to play third base, they have a surplus of their own. Specifically, Brett Baty.
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Baty finally showed signs of life in 2025, hitting 18 homers with a .778 OPS. With Bichette at third and Marcus Semien at second, Baty is the odd man out in Queens. The Red Sox need a third baseman. The Mets need an outfielder.
It’s so simple it hurts.
Ken Rosenthal has noted that the obstacle here is the Mets' reluctance to move Baty, but if the Sox dangle Duran, that tune might change. A Duran-for-Baty framework (with other pieces involved) makes almost too much sense. It clears the Boston outfield logjam and finally gives them a long-term answer at the hot corner.
What People Get Wrong About the "Outfield Surplus"
Everyone talks about the Red Sox having "too many" outfielders. But do they really?
- Roman Anthony is the future. He’s the #1 prospect in baseball for a reason. He has to play every day.
- Ceddanne Rafaela is an elite defensive center fielder. You don't trade those.
- Masataka Yoshida is the DH. He’s not playing the field.
- Wilyer Abreu is a Gold Glover in right.
If you keep all four, where does Jarren Duran go?
You can’t just bench a guy who put up 4.7 WAR. And you certainly don't want to turn him into a part-time player and tank his trade value. The "surplus" isn't a luxury; it's a ticking clock. Every day Duran stays on the roster while the infield remains a question mark, the Red Sox are losing leverage.
The Reality of the 2026 Market
We have to acknowledge the elephant in the room: the price of pitching has skyrocketed.
The Red Sox were able to sign Suárez because they had the cash. But if they want another top-tier starter to really compete with the Yankees and Orioles, they’re going to have to trade someone people actually want. Nobody is trading a #2 starter for a "prospect and a bag of chips." They want Duran. They want Abreu.
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Jeff Passan recently reported that the Red Sox view Duran as a chip that should return a "front-of-the-rotation starter." So far, no one has met that price. Why? Because Duran is 29. He’s fast, but speed ages. Teams are wary of giving up 6 years of a young pitcher for 3 years of an outfielder who relies on his legs.
It’s a high-stakes game of chicken.
What Happens Next?
If you’re waiting for a trade, don't hold your breath for today. The Red Sox are notoriously patient (or slow, depending on who you ask). But with Spring Training about a month away, the pressure is mounting.
Here is the most likely path forward:
- The "Hold" Scenario: The Sox go into camp with everyone. They hope someone gets desperate in March after an injury. This is risky because it creates a weird vibe in the clubhouse.
- The Diamondbacks Blockbuster: This is the "Marte" dream. It’s expensive, it’s painful, but it makes the Red Sox a World Series contender immediately.
- The Mets Swap: A smaller, more targeted trade. Duran for Baty plus a mid-level pitching prospect. It fills the hole at third and allows Roman Anthony to take over left field full-time.
Honestly, the Red Sox trade rumors involving Duran and Abreu are going to persist until one of them is wearing a different jersey. You can't have this much talent sitting on the bench while your second baseman is a revolving door of utility guys.
The move is coming. It just depends on who blinks first.
If I'm Craig Breslow, I’m looking at the Astros and the Mets very closely. The Astros need an outfielder to stay in the race, and the Mets have the infield depth to spare. If you can land a guy like Isaac Paredes or Brett Baty without giving up the farm, you take that deal and run.
Keep an eye on the "incentives" in Duran's contract too. He gets bonuses for every 50 plate appearances after 450. A team trading for him knows exactly what they’re paying. That clarity is a gift in trade negotiations.
The next two weeks will tell us everything we need to know about how serious this front office is about winning the AL East in 2026.
Check the transaction wire. It’s about to get loud.
Actionable Insights for Red Sox Fans
- Watch the Lineup Splits: If the Red Sox start emphasizing right-handed bats in their smaller signings, it’s a dead giveaway that a lefty outfielder (Duran or Abreu) is on the move.
- Monitor the Diamondbacks: If Arizona signs a veteran outfielder in free agency, the Duran-to-Arizona rumors are officially dead.
- Keep an eye on Jarren Duran’s Social Media: He recently launched a mental health foundation with artist Evan Farrell. He’s deeply connected to the Boston community, which makes a potential trade even more of a "human" story than just a baseball one.
- Don't expect a salary dump: The Red Sox aren't trading these guys to save money; they're trading for talent. If the return isn't a starting infielder or a high-leverage pitcher, the deal won't happen.