Honestly, if you looked at the Red Sox starting rotation 2025 projections back in November, you probably would’ve laughed. It looked like the same old story. A bunch of "maybe" guys and "if he stays healthy" types. But man, things changed fast.
The Red Sox didn't just tweak the staff; they went out and basically rebuilt the engine while the car was still moving. It’s weird to say about a team that’s been called "cheap" for years, but the 2025 Red Sox might actually have one of the best rotations in the American League. Not just "good for Boston," but actually elite.
The Garrett Crochet Factor
Let's talk about the elephant in the room. Or the giant lefty on the mound. Trading for Garrett Crochet was the kind of move Craig Breslow needed to make to prove he wasn't just a "numbers guy" but a "winning guy." Crochet is coming off a monster 2024 and he hasn't slowed down.
Last season, he was top-two in Cy Young voting for a reason. He’s the undisputed ace. He throws 100 mph and makes hitters look like they're swinging underwater. When you have a guy like that at the top, everything else just... fits better.
But a rotation isn't one guy.
The Ranger Suárez Surprise
The most shocking part of the Red Sox starting rotation 2025 puzzle was the January signing of Ranger Suárez. Seriously, who saw that coming? $130 million is a lot of money, especially for a guy who doesn't blow people away with velocity.
People are worried about his 91 mph fastball. I get it. In 2026, everyone wants 99. But Suárez is a "pitcher," not just a "thrower." His hard-hit percentage was in the top ten of the league last year. He induces soft contact like it’s a hobby.
Plus, there’s a rumor that the Sox might go after J.T. Realmuto to keep him happy. That would be wild, right? But even without his favorite catcher, Suárez gives this team a level of stability they haven't had since the Eduardo Rodriguez days.
The Mid-Rotation Chaos
After Crochet and Suárez, things get a little crowded. Here’s the current pecking order as we head into the 2026 season:
- Sonny Gray: Acquired via trade, Gray is the veteran voice. He’s still got that nasty sweeper, though there’s been a lot of talk about his spin rates dropping. If Andrew Bailey can fix his four-seamer, he’s a legit #2 or #3.
- Brayan Bello: He’s still the "young star," but the clock is ticking. He’s 26 now. The sinker is elite, but the consistency just isn't there yet. He’s the ultimate wild card.
- Johan Oviedo: Another trade acquisition. He’s got the stuff, but he’s coming back from injury.
What about the guys who carried the team last year? Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford?
Well, it's complicated. Houck is currently dealing with the aftermath of Tommy John surgery. It’s a huge blow. He was the All-Star rep not too long ago. Crawford is still around, but he’s mostly viewed as "valuable depth" or even trade bait at this point.
Why the "Pitching Whisperer" Matters
You can’t talk about the Red Sox starting rotation 2025 without mentioning Andrew Bailey. The guy is basically a wizard. He’s obsessed with "stuff in the zone."
He’s moved the team away from the old-school "nibble at the corners" philosophy. He wants these guys attacking. You see it with the way Crochet pitches, and you’re starting to see it with the younger guys like Payton Tolle and Connelly Early.
Wait, you haven't heard of them?
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You will. Tolle and Early are the "prospects" who got thrown into the fire last year because of all the injuries. They aren't just depth anymore; they are the future. Early even pitched in the playoffs against the Yankees. Talk about a "welcome to the big leagues" moment.
The Lucas Giolito Situation
Man, I feel for Lucas Giolito. He finally got healthy, pitched 145 solid innings with a 3.41 ERA in 2025, and then got hurt right before the playoffs. It was a "freak injury," or so he says.
He declined his option and is a free agent now. There’s a slim chance he comes back, but with the Suárez and Gray additions, the room is getting pretty full. It’s a bummer because he was exactly what the Sox needed—a veteran who could eat innings and keep you in the game.
What This Means for 2026
If you’re looking at this rotation, it’s built for a deep run.
- Strikeouts: Between Crochet and Gray, they’ll lead the league.
- Weak Contact: Suárez and Bello are the kings of the ground ball.
- Depth: Tolle, Early, and Richard Fitts mean they won't crumble if one guy gets a blister.
The Red Sox finished 2025 with a Wild Card exit. They were close, but the pitching just ran out of gas. By adding Suárez and Gray to a staff led by Crochet, they’ve basically told the rest of the AL East that "bridge years" are over.
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It’s an expensive group. It’s a talented group. But mostly, it’s a group that actually makes sense.
If you're tracking this team, keep an eye on the trade market. With this much starting depth, don't be surprised if Breslow flips a guy like Bello or one of the prospects for a big bat to fill the hole left by Alex Bregman.
Next Steps for Fans:
- Check the Spring Training pitch counts for Sonny Gray to see if his velocity is back.
- Monitor the recovery timeline for Tanner Houck; a mid-season return could be a massive "trade deadline" type boost.
- Watch Payton Tolle in the early games—if his secondary pitches have developed, he might force his way into a permanent spot.