You’ve seen the headlines. Another notification pops up on your phone, and for a split second, your heart just sinks. It’s a familiar, heavy feeling that’s basically become part of the American experience. But honestly, if you feel like you’re losing track of the numbers, you aren’t alone. The way we talk about gun violence in this country is kinda messy. Between the breaking news cycles and the dry spreadsheets of data nerds, the actual reality of recent mass shootings in the US often gets blurred.
Most people think these events are getting worse every single day. The truth? It’s complicated. As we move into 2026, the data is actually telling a story that might surprise you. While the tragedy remains undeniable, the sheer volume of incidents has started to dip from the terrifying peaks we saw a few years back.
The Current Landscape of Recent Mass Shootings in the US
Let’s look at the raw numbers from the Gun Violence Archive. In 2025, the US recorded 408 mass shootings. Now, that is still a massive number—it averages out to more than one a day. But compared to 2021, when we hit a record of 690, it’s a 41% drop.
Why does this matter? Because context is everything.
If you just watch the evening news, you'd think we're in a permanent upward spiral. In reality, experts like James Alan Fox from Northeastern University call this a "regression to the mean." Basically, the world went a little crazy during the pandemic years, and now we’re seeing a return to historical averages. It doesn’t make the 358 people killed in these 2025 incidents any less dead, but it helps us understand the trajectory.
The Start of 2026: A Violent Beginning
The new year didn't exactly wait to make its mark. Just days into January 2026, a spree shooting in Cedarbluff, Mississippi, reminded everyone how quickly a quiet community can be shattered. On January 9, a 24-year-old suspect allegedly went on a rampage across three different locations. Six people died, including a 7-year-old girl and a local pastor.
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It was targeted. It was brutal. It fits the definition of a "mass killing" (four or more dead) rather than just a "mass shooting" (four or more shot).
Then you have the incidents that barely make the national crawl. On January 11, 2026, alone, there were shootings in Los Angeles, Slaton, Texas, and Adams County, Colorado. In LA, people were just waiting in line for fried chicken when someone opened fire. One dead, three injured. In Texas, a woman was killed on her birthday.
This is the "daily drip" of violence that often gets lost. We focus on the high-profile school attacks, but the majority of recent mass shootings in the US happen in homes or on street corners that never see a satellite truck.
Why Definitions Actually Change Everything
You’ll hear different numbers depending on who you listen to. This drives people crazy. One person says there were 400 shootings, another says there were 20. They aren't lying; they’re just using different rulers.
- The Gun Violence Archive (GVA): They use the "four or more shot" rule. This includes the injured. If four people are grazed by bullets in a drive-by, GVA counts it as a mass shooting. This is why their numbers are always the highest.
- The FBI / Congressional Research Service: They usually focus on "mass killings." That means four or more people actually died. They often exclude the shooter from that count.
- The "Public" Factor: Some databases only count shootings in public places like malls or schools. They ignore "domestic" incidents where a person kills their family.
Honestly, the "public" definition is what scares us the most. We worry about the random guy in a trench coat at the grocery store. But the statistics show that about half of mass killings happen in private residences. It's often someone the victims knew. That’s a uncomfortable reality that doesn't fit the "stranger danger" narrative we see in movies.
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School Safety: A Rare Bright Spot?
If there is any "good" news—and I use that term very loosely—it’s what’s happening in schools. For a long time, it felt like schools were becoming war zones. But 2025 was actually the lowest year for school shootings since 2020.
Education Week tracked only 18 school shootings that resulted in injury or death in 2025. That’s a huge drop from the 40+ incidents we were seeing annually a couple of years ago.
Is it the new security tech? The AI-powered cameras? Or maybe just the fact that 22 states now mandate "threat assessments" to catch kids before they snap? It’s probably a mix of all of it. On August 27, 2025, there was a terrible incident at Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis during a school mass. Two kids died. 21 were injured. It was a gut-punch that proved we haven't "solved" the problem, even if the frequency is down.
What's Driving the Numbers Down?
Experts are still arguing about this. It’s never just one thing. Some point to the dip in gun sales. In 2025, about 14.7 million guns were sold—a 4% drop from the year before. People aren't panic-buying like they were in 2020.
Others think it's about better trauma care. If a first responder gets to a victim in three minutes instead of ten, a "mass killing" becomes a "mass shooting" because the victims survived. We've gotten really good at keeping people alive after they've been shot. That's a grim thing to be proud of, but it changes the stats.
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Moving Forward: Actionable Steps
So, what do we actually do with this info? It's easy to feel helpless, but there are specific ways to navigate this reality.
1. Demand Context from Your News
When you see a headline about a "mass shooting," check the source. Is it a gang-related dispute in an alley or a premeditated attack in a library? The solutions for those two things are totally different. Don't let a single number scare you into staying home if the data shows your specific risk is low.
2. Focus on "Red Flag" Awareness
In two-thirds of public mass shootings, the shooter bought their gun legally because they didn't have a criminal record yet. However, they almost always "leaked" their plans. They talked about it on Discord. They told a friend. If you see someone in your circle spiraling or talking about "settling scores," that is the moment to intervene. Most of these incidents are preventable at the social level, not just the legal one.
3. Support Community Intervention Programs
The "daily drip" of shootings is often driven by local cycles of retaliation. Programs like "Cure Violence" treat gun violence like a disease—they find the "infected" areas and use street mediators to stop the next shooting before it happens. These programs saw big funding boosts in 2024 and 2025, which likely contributed to the national decline we’re seeing now.
4. Practice Situational Awareness Without Paranoia
It’s a balance. You don't need to live in fear, but knowing where the exits are in a theater isn't "crazy"—it's just smart. Most experts, like Ken Trump (a school safety consultant), say that "active supervision" and simple situational awareness are more effective than any high-tech gadget.
The conversation around recent mass shootings in the US isn't going away. It's an American scar. But by looking at the real numbers—the spikes, the dips, and the messy definitions—we can at least talk about it like adults. We’re in a period of "regression to the mean," but that "mean" is still way too high. The next few months of 2026 will tell us if the downward trend is a permanent shift or just a temporary breather.