Polling is a messy business. If you’ve spent any time looking at the RealClearPolitics Trump approval rating lately, you already know that. One day the numbers look like a comeback; the next, they’re sliding back into the "underwater" territory we’ve seen so often. Honestly, it’s enough to give anyone whiplash.
People often treat these percentages like a sports score. But politics isn’t a football game. These numbers are a snapshot of a deeply divided country trying to figure out if the current path is working. Right now, as of mid-January 2026, the aggregate shows a president stuck in a narrow band of support.
Basically, Trump’s approval is hovering around the 42.6% to 43.7% mark on RealClearPolitics (RCP). That’s not a guess—that’s the average of the most recent data points from various pollsters.
Why the RealClearPolitics Trump Approval Rating Matters So Much
You might wonder why everyone obsesses over the RCP average specifically. There are other trackers, like FiveThirtyEight or the Silver Bulletin. But RCP is the "old guard." They don't do fancy "weighting" or complex modeling to "correct" the polls. They just take the raw numbers from the last few major surveys and average them out.
It’s a simple, some might say "primitive," way of looking at the data. But it’s incredibly influential because it’s transparent. If a Fox News poll says one thing and a Quinnipiac poll says another, they both go into the hopper.
Current trends suggest that while Trump started his second term with a bit of a honeymoon—hitting 47% in late January 2025—that glow faded fast. By November 2025, he hit a low of 36% in some individual polls like Gallup. The current rebound to the low 40s is a stabilization, but it’s a fragile one.
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The Economy is the Anchor (and the Weight)
If you look under the hood of the RealClearPolitics Trump approval rating, the overall number hides a huge gap in how people feel about specific issues.
It’s kind of wild. Trump actually does okay on things like immigration and crime. Voters generally trust him more there. But the economy? That’s where the wheels are wobbling.
Even though gas prices have stayed relatively low—hovering just over $3.00 for much of the last year—voters aren't giving the administration credit. Why? Because everything else is expensive. Inflation is the ghost that won't stop haunting the dinner table.
- Inflation Approval: Currently sitting at a dismal 36% net.
- General Economy: Around 41% approval.
- Health Care: Only 32% of people like what’s happening there.
You’ve got a situation where 66% of Americans say the economy or inflation is their top concern. When your approval on those specific topics is 10 points lower than your overall rating, you're in trouble. People might like your "vibe" or your stance on the border, but they’re feeling the pinch at the grocery store.
How 2026 Midterms are Looming Large
We are officially in a midterm year. That changes everything. Historically, a president’s approval rating is the single best predictor of how their party will do in Congressional elections.
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Democrats currently hold a roughly 4.5-point edge in the generic House ballot. That tracks pretty closely with Trump being "underwater" by about 8 to 12 points on net. If his RCP average stays below 45%, Republicans are likely looking at a very long night this coming November.
But here is the twist: about 40% of the electorate says they are willing to change their mind. They aren't "Never Trump" and they aren't "Always Trump." They are "Wait and See" voters. They want to see if the tariffs actually bring jobs back or just make their next TV 20% more expensive.
Common Misconceptions About the RCP Average
A lot of folks think the RealClearPolitics Trump approval rating is biased one way or the other. It’s a common complaint.
- Left-leaning critics say RCP includes "low-quality" or partisan polls that inflate Republican numbers.
- Right-leaning critics say the "mainstream" polls they include are designed to discourage GOP voters.
The reality is more boring. RCP is just a mirror. If the mirror shows a messy room, it’s not the mirror’s fault. Because they don't weight for things like education or "likely voter" models as strictly as others, their average tends to be a bit more volatile. It reacts faster to news cycles.
Where the Numbers Stand Today (Jan 2026)
- RCP Average: 43.1% Approve / 52.8% Disapprove
- Net Rating: -9.7
- High Mark (2nd Term): 47% (Jan 2025)
- Low Mark (2nd Term): 36% (Dec 2025)
These aren't just digits on a screen. They represent the "permission structure" for Congress. When a president is at 43%, his own party starts to get nervous. They start looking at their own local numbers and wondering if they should distance themselves. We’re already seeing this in swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
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What to Watch Next
Don't just look at the headline number. If you want to know where the country is actually going, you have to look at the "Strongly Disapprove" vs. "Strongly Approve" cohorts.
Right now, the "Strongly Disapprove" group is significantly larger. That’s an "intensity gap." It means the people who hate what’s happening are more motivated to show up and vote than the people who "somewhat approve."
To turn this around, the administration basically has to move the needle on inflation. There’s no other way. You can’t talk people out of their bank statements.
If you're tracking the RealClearPolitics Trump approval rating to predict the 2026 midterms, keep an eye on the "Independents" sub-category. In late 2024, Trump had a real lead with these voters. Today? Democrats are leading among independents by about 11 points in some surveys. That is the ballgame.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Monitor the Spread: Check the "Spread" column on RCP. A narrowing gap (less than -5) usually precedes a legislative win or an economic uptick.
- Compare Issue Polls: Don't just look at "Job Approval." Look at "Direction of Country." If "Direction of Country" is significantly lower than "Job Approval," the president's support is personality-driven, not policy-driven, which is harder to sustain.
- Watch the "Leaning" Polls: See which individual polls are being added to the average. If the average is being buoyed by one or two "outlier" polls, it’s likely to undergo a "correction" soon.