Honestly, if you’re looking at real estate australia news today, you’re probably hearing two completely different stories. One side says the market is finally cooling off because of "sticker shock" and the Reserve Bank’s stubborn refusal to cut rates. The other side is pointing at record-high auction crowds and a new government scheme that basically just dropped a match into a powder keg.
It’s messy.
The national median dwelling value just hit $901,257 according to the latest January 2nd data from CoreLogic (now often referred to as Cotality in some market circles). That’s a massive jump from where we were just a few years ago. But the real story isn't just that prices are high—it's that the "speed" of the market is shifting. While Sydney and Melbourne actually saw values dip by 0.1% in December, places like Perth and Adelaide are still sprinting.
The First Home Guarantee Shockwave
The biggest bit of real estate australia news today is the massive expansion of the First Home Guarantee. Starting this month, the government has basically opened the floodgates. You’ve got people getting into homes with a 5% deposit, no LMI (Lenders Mortgage Insurance), and—this is the kicker—no income caps in some versions of the scheme.
Domain’s latest forecast suggests this stimulus alone could push prices up by another 3.5% to 6.6% this year. It’s a classic Australian property paradox. We want to help people buy, so we give them more money, which then drives up the price of the very thing they’re trying to buy.
In Sydney, this scheme supposedly cuts the time needed to save for a deposit from over 10 years down to about three. Great for the buyer, sure. But for the market? It’s adding roughly 20,000 extra buyers into a system that already doesn't have enough houses to go around.
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Capital City Breakdown: The Winners and the Drags
It is a weird time to be in the big smoke.
- Sydney: The median house price is eyeing $1.92 million by the end of the year. Despite a tiny dip last month, buyer confidence is weirdly high. Auction clearance rates are holding up because, frankly, if you don't buy now, you’re worried you’ll be priced out forever.
- Melbourne: It’s the "comeback kid" of 2026. After a sluggish 2025 where it only grew 4.8%, experts like Tim Lawless are seeing a "full recovery" on the cards. The median is headed toward $1.17 million.
- Perth & Brisbane: These two are the absolute powerhouses. Brisbane's median property price has officially crossed the **$1 million mark** ($1,036,323 to be exact). Perth isn't far behind, with house prices growing nearly 16% over the last year.
Why Interest Rates are the Elephant in the Room
Everyone was hoping for a New Year's gift from RBA Governor Michele Bullock. We didn't get one.
The cash rate is sitting at 3.6%, and the "higher for longer" narrative isn't just a catchphrase anymore; it’s a lifestyle. In fact, some economists, including those at HSBC, are warning that the next move might actually be up. Inflation is proving to be stickier than a toddler with a lolly pop, especially with energy rebates ending and service costs climbing.
If you’re looking at real estate australia news today to find a reason to wait for a rate cut, you might be waiting a while. Markets are currently pricing in a significant chance of a hike by May. This is creating a "logjam" in places like Perth, where sellers are too scared to list because they don't think they'll find anything else they can afford to buy with a new, more expensive mortgage.
The Rental Crisis Hasn't Left the Building
If buying sounds tough, renting is a nightmare. We’ve had 13 consecutive quarters of rent growth. That is a record.
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However, we are finally seeing what experts call an "affordability ceiling." Basically, people literally cannot pay any more. In Sydney and Melbourne, house rents have started to plateau because the bank accounts are empty. This is forcing a massive shift toward units.
Unit rents in Melbourne and Perth jumped 17% annually. People are downsizing, moving back in with parents, or finding roommates they probably don't even like just to keep a roof over their heads. National vacancy is still at a painful 0.9% in many cities, though it’s ticked up slightly to 1.7% in some regional areas.
What Most People Get Wrong About the 2026 Market
People keep waiting for a "crash." They see the interest rates, they see the cost of living, and they figure the bottom has to fall out.
But here’s the reality: Supply is still broken. We aren't building enough. Labor shortages and high material costs mean the "Big Build" is way behind schedule. When you have low supply and a government that keeps pumping demand with buyer schemes, prices don't crash. They just move sideways or grow more slowly.
Also, keep an eye on the "Baby Boomer Inheritance Tsunami." We’re starting to see a massive transfer of wealth where parents are using their own home equity to fund their kids' deposits. This "Bank of Mum and Dad" is now one of the biggest lenders in the country, and it doesn't care about RBA rate hikes.
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Real Actions You Can Take Now
If you are trying to navigate the real estate australia news today, stop looking at national averages. They are useless. A 0.1% drop in Sydney doesn't mean your suburb in Perth isn't going to go up 2% next month.
1. Check your "Serviceability Buffer" Banks are being stricter. If you’re applying for a loan, assume rates will go up another 0.50% and see if you can still eat. If the answer is no, scale back your expectations.
2. Look at "Secondary" Hubs With the inner-city prices hitting the roof, the "outward ripple" is real. Places like Frankston North in Melbourne or the outer suburbs of Adelaide are seeing more action than the prestige postcodes because that's where the value—and the government grants—actually work.
3. Target the Unit Market The gap between house and unit prices is at historic highs. In Brisbane, units are actually outperforming houses in terms of percentage growth (16.9% vs 14%) because they are the only thing left that is "affordable."
4. Don't Over-Refurbish If you’re a seller, be careful. Rising construction costs mean you might not get your money back on a massive renovation. Buyers in 2026 are looking for "neat and tidy" rather than "luxury redo" because they don't have the spare cash to pay for your gold-plated taps.
The market is definitely in a "recalibration" phase. It’s less of a frenzy than 2021, but more of a slow, grinding climb fueled by a desperate lack of houses. Stay cautious, watch the February RBA meeting closely, and don't believe every "doom and gloom" headline you see on social media.
Next Steps for Property Hunters
- Get a Pre-Approval Refresh: With the new First Home Guarantee rules in effect as of January, your borrowing capacity might have changed overnight.
- Audit Your Local Auction Results: Ignore the national "0.5% growth" stats and look at the last three weekends in your specific target suburb to see the real "street price."
- Consult a Mortgage Broker: Specifically ask about "Shared Equity" schemes if you're struggling with a deposit, as these are becoming the primary way young Aussies are cracking the 2026 market.