Fantasy football is basically back, and honestly, the Week 1 anxiety is already hitting different this year. Everyone spends all summer staring at draft boards, but when that first Thursday night kickoff actually happens, half the "expert" consensus usually flies right out the window.
You've probably seen the generic lists.
They always have the same names at the top. But if you’re looking at RB rankings week 1 for the 2025 season, you need to look past the ADP and actually check the matchups. Week 1 is a weird beast because we have zero current-season data, just a bunch of training camp rumors and "best shape of his life" tweets.
The Heavy Hitters: Why the Top Tier is a Trap
It’s easy to just put Christian McCaffrey or Bijan Robinson at the #1 spot and call it a day. McCaffrey is coming off a massive 2024, but let’s be real—the 49ers opening up against Seattle is never as easy as it looks on paper. CMC had a monster workload last year, and Kyle Shanahan has been talking about "managing" him, which is a terrifying word for fantasy managers who spent a top-two pick on him.
Then you’ve got Bijan Robinson.
Everyone is obsessed with him, and for good reason. He posted 20-plus fantasy points ten times last year. But he’s starting the season against a Tampa Bay defense that was 7th-best against the run in 2024. Plus, the Falcons are breaking in a new offensive line rhythm after losing Drew Dalman to the Bears and Kaleb McGary to the IR. If Vita Vea is living in the backfield, Bijan might have a frustratingly slow start.
Saquon Barkley in Philadelphia feels like a cheat code, though.
He’s facing a Dallas Cowboys defense that—sorta shockingly—traded away Micah Parsons. Without Parsons, that defense has historically been a sieve against the run. If the Eagles' offensive line does what it usually does, Saquon might put up 25 points before the third quarter even starts.
The Sophomore Surge and Rookie Wildcards
Jahmyr Gibbs is the name I’m watching most closely in the RB rankings week 1 discussion. The Lions are at Green Bay, and while the Packers improved, Gibbs is just a nightmare to tackle in space. He had seven games with over 20 points last year. If Ben Johnson keeps using him as a receiver, his floor is much higher than a traditional "between the tackles" grinder.
Speaking of grinders, let's talk about the rookies.
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- Ashton Jeanty (LV): The Raiders are at New England. It’s a gross matchup, but Jeanty is a volume monster. He might get 20 carries just because the Raiders don't have many other options.
- Ollie Gordon II (MIA): He’s backing up De'Von Achane. Achane is dealing with a calf strain. If Achane sits or is limited, Gordon becomes an instant must-start.
- Omarion Hampton (LAC): Jim Harbaugh loves running the ball. Hampton is facing KC, which is tough, but the volume alone makes him a viable RB2.
Matchups That Will Actually Ruin Your Week
Honestly, I’m fading Jonathan Taylor a bit this week.
I know, I know. He’s JT. But the Colts are playing Miami, and while the Dolphins' defense isn't the '85 Bears, the game script might get away from Indy fast. If Anthony Richardson is throwing 40 times to keep up with Tua, Taylor’s ceiling gets capped.
On the flip side, keep an eye on Bucky Irving in Tampa.
He was a sleeper last year, but he’s basically taken over as the primary guy while Rachaad White handles the change-of-pace role. Playing Atlanta in the dome is a fast track, and Irving’s efficiency (5.4 YPC last year) suggests he’s ready for a breakout Week 1.
RB Rankings Week 1: The "Start Your Engines" Tier
If you're stuck in a 12-team league and your RB2 is looking shaky, here is how the middle of the pack actually shakes out when you factor in the 2025 Week 1 matchups.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) at GB: Elite upside in a divisional shootout.
- Saquon Barkley (PHI) vs. DAL: The Cowboys are missing their heart (Parsons).
- Christian McCaffrey (SF) at SEA: You start him, but don't expect 40 points.
- Bucky Irving (TB) at ATL: Great turf, high efficiency, clear lead role.
- Derrick Henry (BAL) at BUF: The Ravens are underdogs, but Henry eats in September.
- Chase Brown (CIN) at CLE: The Browns' defense is legit, but Brown is the engine of the Cincy offense now.
- De'Von Achane (MIA) at IND: Health is the only question here.
- Josh Jacobs (GB) vs. DET: Revenge game? Maybe. High volume? Definitely.
The Misconception About "Early Season Rust"
A lot of people think you should avoid players who missed preseason. That's usually a mistake. Modern NFL veterans don't need preseason reps to be ready for Week 1. If Kenneth Walker III is healthy for Seattle against the Niners, he’s going to get his touches.
The real thing to worry about is "New Coordinator Syndrome."
The Lions have a new voice in the room, and the Jets are trying to figure out how to balance Breece Hall with Braelon Allen. Those are the situations where you might see a weird 50/50 split that kills your fantasy score.
Actionable Insights for Your Lineup
Stop overthinking the big names. If you have Saquon, you’re playing him. If you have Bijan, you’re playing him. But if you’re deciding between a "reliable" vet like James Conner and a "high-upside" rookie like Omarion Hampton, look at the projected point totals.
The Eagles/Cowboys and Lions/Packers games are going to be high-scoring.
The Raiders/Patriots game is going to be a 13-10 slugfest.
Put your money on the players in the high-scoring environments. Don't get cute with a "revenge game" narrative for a backup running back who only plays 20% of the snaps. Stick to the volume.
Check the final injury report on Friday morning. If De'Von Achane's calf is still "limited," you pivot. If Joe Mixon is still dealing with that ankle in Houston, you look at Dameon Pierce as a desperation flex.
Get your RBs in order, ignore the noise from the "experts" who haven't updated their rankings since July, and trust the volume. Week 1 is a marathon, but a 20-point head start makes the rest of the season a whole lot easier.
Verify your league's scoring settings before kickoff. A full-PPR league makes guys like Alvin Kamara and Jahmyr Gibbs significantly more valuable than a standard league where Najee Harris might still have a pulse.
Watch the waiver wire for Kenneth Gainwell or Tyrone Tracy Jr. if they aren't rostered. Both are seeing massive first-team reps in practice and could be the 2025 version of the Week 1 breakout star.
Next Steps for Week 1 Success:
- Double-check the inactive list 90 minutes before the early games.
- Move your late-game players (Sunday/Monday night) to your Flex spot to keep your options open.
- Target RB-heavy teams on the waiver wire now before they become the most expensive pickups of the year on Tuesday night.