If you’ve spent any time in western South Dakota, you know the local saying: "If you don’t like the weather, wait five minutes." It’s a cliché, sure, but in Rapid City, it’s basically a survival strategy.
Honestly, looking at the rapid city sd forecast for today, Friday, January 16, 2026, we are seeing that chaotic energy in full effect. We’re currently sitting at 26°F, but with northwest winds howling at 38 mph, the "feels like" temperature is a biting 7°F.
That’s a massive gap.
Most people check the high—which is 28°F today—and think a light coat will do. They’re wrong.
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The Brutal Reality of the Wind Chill
The wind is the real story here. We aren't just talking about a "breeze." The National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Warning, and for good reason. We’ve already seen gusts hitting 54 mph earlier this morning.
By tonight, the actual air temperature is going to crater to 5°F.
If those 40 mph winds hold into the evening, you’re looking at wind chills well below zero. Humidity is sitting at a crisp 39%, which makes the air feel even sharper against your skin.
It’s dry. It’s loud. It’s classic January in the Black Hills.
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Snow is Coming (Sorta)
The precipitation situation is a bit of a moving target. Right now, there’s a 30% chance of snow during the day. It’s not a blizzard, but with 40 mph winds, even a dusting turns into "patchy blowing snow" that kills visibility on I-90.
Tonight, that chance drops to 20%.
Don't expect to build a snowman. This is that fine, dry, powdery stuff that just drifts into piles against your garage door.
Why the Rapid City SD Forecast is So Weird
Rapid City sits in a geographical "Goldilocks zone" that isn't very gold or lucky most of the time. We are right on the edge of the Black Hills.
Sometimes we get the "Chinook" effect—warm winds that can jump the temperature 30 degrees in an hour. Other times, like today, we get the Arctic front that slides down the plains and gets trapped against the mountains.
Historically, this place is legendary for temperature swings. Back in 1911, the temp dropped 47°F in just five minutes. Imagine walking into a grocery store in a t-shirt and walking out into a literal icebox.
Looking Ahead: The 14-Day Outlook
If you’re planning your week, Saturday, Jan 17, looks like the "warm" day of the weekend with a high of 35°F. It’ll be mostly sunny, but don't let the sun fool you—the low is still dropping to 5°F.
The real spike comes Tuesday, Jan 20. We’re forecasting a high of 56°F.
That’s a 50-degree swing from Friday’s low.
But don't get too comfortable. By next Thursday and Friday (Jan 22-23), the snow chances jump up to 55-60%. That’s when we might actually see some accumulation—about 0.79 to 1.10 inches.
What You Should Actually Do
If you’re heading out today, forget the fashion. You need a windbreaker over your puffer coat. The wind will cut through wool like it’s not even there.
- Check your tires: The pressure drops when it hits 5°F.
- Weight your trunk: If you have a light rear-wheel-drive vehicle, these northwest gusts will push you all over the road.
- Watch the pets: 7°F wind chill is no joke for paws.
The rapid city sd forecast for the rest of January looks like a rollercoaster. We’ve got a mix of "bitter cold" and "Chinook warmth" that will keep the road crews busy with freeze-thaw cycles.
Stay tucked in tonight. It’s going to be a loud, windy one.
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Actionable Insight: Secure any loose outdoor furniture or holiday decorations immediately. With 40 mph sustained winds and higher gusts, anything not tied down will likely end up three blocks away by tomorrow morning.