You’ve probably heard people call Rapid City the "Banana Belt" of South Dakota. Honestly, if you’re looking at the current Rapid City 10 day weather forecast, that nickname might feel like a bit of a stretch today.
Right now, it is 23°F outside. But here is the kicker: with those northwest winds whipping at 31 mph, the "feels like" temperature is sitting at a bone-chilling 5°F.
The Wild Reality of Rapid City Weather
Rapid City is basically a meteorological battlefield where Arctic air from Canada and warm Pacific winds fight for dominance. It’s weird. It’s unpredictable. One minute you're scraping ice, the next you're thinking about a light hoodie.
This specific week in January 2026 is a perfect example of that chaos. We aren't seeing 60-degree spikes today, but the variance is still wild.
Breaking Down the Next Few Days
Let's look at what's actually hitting the ground. Today, Friday, January 16, we've got a high of 24°F and a low of 4°F. There is a light dusting of snow coming down, but the real story is the wind. We are talking 36 mph northwest gusts.
🔗 Read more: The Recipe With Boiled Eggs That Actually Makes Breakfast Interesting Again
Then, Saturday happens.
Saturday, January 17, sees the temperature jump up to 40°F. That is a 16-degree swing in 24 hours. The humidity drops to a measly 16%. It’ll be partly sunny, but don't get too comfortable—the low tonight is still a biting 5°F.
The Mid-Week "Warmth" and the Snow Return
By Tuesday, January 20, we hit the peak of this 10-day cycle with a high of 45°F. For a South Dakota January, that’s practically beach weather.
- Sunday, Jan 18: High 33°F | Low 16°F (35% chance of snow at night)
- Monday, Jan 19: High 34°F | Low 17°F (Partly sunny)
- Tuesday, Jan 20: High 45°F | Low 23°F (Light snow despite the warmth)
Why does it snow when it’s 45 degrees? Because Rapid City doesn't follow the rules. Those Chinook winds can warm the surface while the upper atmosphere is still dumping powder.
💡 You might also like: Finding the Right Words: Quotes About Sons That Actually Mean Something
What the Heck is a Chinook?
If you're new to the Black Hills, you need to know about the "Snow Eater." That’s the translation for Chinook. These are warm, dry winds that blow down the eastern slopes of the mountains.
They are the reason Spearfish, just down the road, holds the world record for the fastest temperature change ever recorded. In 1943, it jumped 49 degrees in two minutes. Two minutes! People’s glass windows literally cracked from the thermal shock.
While we aren't seeing a record-breaker this week, the Rapid City 10 day weather forecast shows these winds are still the main characters. They keep us significantly warmer than places like Minneapolis or even eastern South Dakota, but they bring that relentless 20-30 mph wind that makes your face hurt.
The Late Week Cold Snap
By the time we hit next weekend, the warmth evaporates.
📖 Related: Williams Sonoma Deer Park IL: What Most People Get Wrong About This Kitchen Icon
- Friday, Jan 23: High 27°F | Low 16°F
- Saturday, Jan 24: High 19°F | Low 0°F
- Sunday, Jan 25: High 6°F | Low -4°F
That Sunday is going to be the "stay inside and order pizza" day. A high of 6°F is a far cry from the 45°F we’ll see just five days prior. Humidity climbs back up to 73%, making that cold feel damp and heavy.
How to Actually Survive Rapid City in January
Look, I’ve seen tourists show up in heavy Arctic parkas and look miserable because they’re sweating by noon. I’ve also seen people in shorts get caught in a 30-degree drop in an hour.
- Layers are a religion here. You need a windproof shell. The wind is the enemy, not necessarily the temperature.
- Sunglasses are mandatory. January in Rapid City is surprisingly sunny (about 54% of the time). Combine that with snow glare, and you’ll be squinting until March if you don’t have shades.
- Check the wind, not just the temp. A 35-degree day with 40 mph winds is way more dangerous than a 15-degree day that’s calm.
- Hydrate like crazy. The air is incredibly dry, especially when those Chinooks blow through. 16% humidity will turn your skin into parchment paper.
The current Rapid City 10 day weather forecast is a classic South Dakota rollercoaster. We go from 45°F to -4°F in less than a week. It’s not for the faint of heart, but it's why the Black Hills stay so interesting.
If you're planning to head into the high country near Custer or Lead, remember that they can get 150+ inches of snow while Rapid City stays relatively dry. Always check the mountain webcams before you head out.
Actionable Next Steps
- Prep your vehicle: Ensure your tire pressure is correct; those 40-degree temperature swings will make your "low pressure" light go crazy.
- Stock the "Oh Crap" kit: Keep a blanket and extra gloves in the car for that Jan 25 cold snap.
- Plan your hikes for Tuesday: That 45-degree window is your best bet for outdoor time before the deep freeze returns.