Honestly, if you’re living in the Research Triangle right now, you've probably noticed the air has that sharp, biting edge that only hits Raleigh a few weeks out of the year. We aren't exactly used to the "big freeze," but the current raleigh weather extended forecast is serving up some serious January vibes that might actually require you to find where you stashed the heavy ice scraper.
It’s currently Sunday night, January 18, 2026, and things are getting chilly fast. Right now, it’s about 34°F outside, but with that northwest wind kicking at 6 mph, it feels more like 28°F.
Basically, it's "stay inside and order takeout" weather.
The 10-Day breakdown: Snow, sun, and a sudden dive
The next week and a half is a bit of a rollercoaster. We’ve got this weird mix of bright, crisp sunny days followed by a potential "winter punch" toward the end of next weekend.
Monday (MLK Day) and Tuesday are looking pretty stellar if you like that clear, dry cold. We’re talking full sun with highs between 38°F and 45°F. It’s the kind of weather where you think, "Oh, this isn't so bad," until the sun goes down and the temperature craters into the mid-20s.
But keep your eyes on next Saturday, January 24.
The models are currently hinting at a transition from light rain during the day (around 47°F) into actual snow showers by Saturday night. The low is expected to drop to 20°F. Sunday, January 25, looks even more intense—a high of only 23°F with a 75% chance of snow showers. If that holds up, the Monday morning commute on the 26th could be a total mess with black ice.
What’s driving this Raleigh deep freeze?
You might hear meteorologists at the NWS or the NC State Climate Office talking about La Niña. This year, we’re in a second consecutive weak La Niña cycle. Usually, that means the Southeast stays warmer and drier, but it also creates these "troughs"—basically dips in the jet stream—that let Arctic air leak down south.
It’s a "temperature tug-of-war." One day you’re wearing a light vest on Fayetteville Street, and three days later, you’re worrying about your pipes freezing.
Historically, January is Raleigh’s coldest month, with an average high of 52°F, but we are trending significantly below that for this specific stretch. We’re also seeing a lot more cloud cover than usual. Most Januaries here are about 50% overcast, and this week is leaning heavily into that grey, moody atmosphere.
Quick reference for the upcoming week:
- Warmest Day: Thursday, Jan 22 (High of 55°F—enjoy it while it lasts).
- Coldest Night: Sunday, Jan 25 (Low of 19°F).
- Best Chance for Flakes: Saturday night through Sunday morning.
- Humidity Check: It’s swinging wildly from 29% on Tuesday to 86% during the rain/snow mix.
Survival tips for the North Carolina "Winter"
Since Raleigh isn't exactly Buffalo, NY, a little bit of wintry prep goes a long way.
First, watch out for the wind chill. On Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, the actual air temperature might be in the 20s, but the wind chill will likely dip into the teens. That’s the kind of cold that sneaks up on you.
Second, the "rain-to-snow" transition is the most dangerous part of the raleigh weather extended forecast. When we have rain on Saturday that freezes as the sun goes down, it creates a layer of ice under any potential snow. If you don't have to be on I-40 on Sunday morning, don't be.
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Moving forward: How to prep
- Check the outdoor spigots: If you haven't disconnected your hoses yet, tonight is the night. With lows hitting 19°F-20°F later this week, a frozen pipe is a real risk.
- Layers are your best friend: Thursday's 55°F high will feel like a heatwave compared to Sunday’s 23°F. Don't pack away the heavy coats just because one afternoon feels mild.
- Monitor the Saturday/Sunday transition: Keep a close watch on the local radar starting Friday night. Wintry mixes in the Research Triangle are notoriously hard to predict until about 12-24 hours out.
The rest of the month looks to stay colder than the historical average, so keep the firewood dry and the salt handy.