The experiment is over. It’s done. One year after the Las Vegas Raiders traded a third-round pick for Geno Smith and handed him a massive contract extension, the wheels haven't just come off—the whole car is in the ditch. Honestly, nobody expected it to get this ugly this fast.
Geno led the league with 17 interceptions this past season. He got sacked 55 times. Fans at Allegiant Stadium were relentless, and after Pete Carroll—the guy who literally brought him to Vegas—was fired earlier this month, the writing wasn't just on the wall; it was screaming in neon.
Finding a raiders quarterback geno smith replacement has become the only priority for owner Mark Davis and GM John Spytek. And since the team secured the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft with a miserable 3-14 finish, the solution is staring them right in the face.
Why the Raiders Quarterback Geno Smith Replacement Is Almost Certainly Fernando Mendoza
If you haven't been watching Indiana football lately, you've missed a certified heater. Fernando Mendoza just capped off a Heisman Trophy-winning season where he basically turned the Hoosiers into an offensive powerhouse. He’s the guy.
Most scouts and insiders, including the folks at PFF and Fox Sports, have Mendoza penciled in as the top pick for Vegas. Why? Because he’s the polar opposite of the chaotic energy Geno Smith brought to the pocket in 2025.
- Elite Accuracy: Mendoza finished the college season with 41 passing touchdowns.
- Poise Under Pressure: While Geno looked rattled every time the pocket collapsed, Mendoza has that "it" factor—moving through his progressions without panicking.
- The Heisman Pedigree: You don't usually pass on a Heisman winner when you have the first pick and a gaping hole at QB.
Spytek has been tight-lipped, naturally. He told reporters on January 5th that Geno is "under contract and he's a quarterback," which is technically true but also the ultimate "we're moving on" corporate speak. You don't scrub your Instagram of all team photos—which Geno did last week—if you're planning on staying for the first day of voluntary workouts.
The Financial Headache of Moving on From Geno
Cutting Geno Smith isn't exactly "free." NFL contracts are a maze of guaranteed money and dead cap hits. If the Raiders release him before June 1st, they are looking at an $18.5 million dead cap hit.
That sounds like a lot of money to pay a guy to play for someone else.
But look at the alternative. If they keep him, they’re paying him $37.5 million for a vibe that has turned completely toxic. Saving $8 million in cap space by cutting him might seem small, but it's the "clean slate" factor that matters more than the raw math. The Raiders need a culture reset, and you can't have a $40 million backup quarterback hovering over a rookie like Mendoza.
Other Names Floating Around the Raiders QB Search
While Mendoza is the clear favorite, the NFL is weird. Sometimes teams fall in love with a different profile. Dante Moore from Oregon is the other "Big One" in the 2026 draft class. He’s got that C.J. Stroud-style delivery—effortless and deep.
If for some reason the Raiders trade down or fall out of love with Mendoza, they might look at the veteran market. Names like Kyler Murray or even Malik Willis have been floated as bridge options. But let’s be real: after the Geno disaster, the fans will revolt if the team brings in another veteran journeyman instead of a superstar rookie.
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"I think that's almost as foregone a conclusion as Pete Carroll was," said Vinny Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal when asked about Geno's future.
Basically, the "Geno era" in Vegas lasted exactly ten months, and it’s going to be remembered as a massive swing and a miss.
What Happens to Geno Now?
He’s likely headed back to "journeyman backup" territory. It’s a tough fall for a guy who was the AP Comeback Player of the Year just a few seasons ago. He’s 35. He’s tired of getting hit. There are rumors he might even consider hanging it up, but that $18.5 million in remaining guarantees is a lot of money to leave on the table.
Actionable Steps for the Raiders Offseason
The path forward is actually pretty simple, even if it’s painful for the accountants. To successfully find a raiders quarterback geno smith replacement, the front office needs to execute a three-step plan:
- Cut the Cord Early: Release Geno before the new league year begins in March to allow the team and the player to move on. Eating the $18.5 million dead cap now is better than dragging out the drama into training camp.
- Lock in the No. 1 Pick Evaluation: Spend every waking second with Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore. If Mendoza is truly the guy who can handle the "Silver and Black" pressure, don't overthink it.
- Build the Infrastructure: The Raiders' offensive line was a sieve last year. Use the remaining draft picks (like the No. 36 overall or interior linemen like Jake Slaughter) to make sure the next quarterback doesn't get sacked 50+ times.
The 2026 season is going to be about one thing: hope. Moving on from Geno Smith is the first step toward getting it back.