If you’ve spent any time in the Black Hole or arguing on Twitter (I’ll never call it X), you know that being a fan of the Silver and Black is a test of patience. Especially in April. The draft is supposed to be the great equalizer, the moment where hope springs eternal for 31 teams and the Raiders usually do something that makes the rest of the league tilt their heads like confused Labradors.
For years, the narrative has been simple: The Raiders reach. They pick guys who shouldn't be picked there. They value "speed" and "traits" over actual, you know, football production. And honestly? Looking at the history of Raiders first round picks, it’s hard to argue against that. But if you think it's just about the "busts," you’re missing the weird, chaotic, and occasionally brilliant reality of how this front office operates.
The Ghost of Drafts Past: Why the Reputation Sticks
Let’s get the ugly stuff out of the way first. You can’t talk about Raiders first round picks without mentioning the 2020 and 2021 disasters. It’s almost impressive how quickly that era went south.
Henry Ruggs III (No. 12, 2020) was showing real flashes of being that Tyreek Hill-style vertical threat before the tragic off-field events ended his career and, more importantly, took a life. Then you have Damon Arnette at No. 19 in that same draft. Most scouts had him as a second or third-rounder. The Raiders took him in the top 20, and he was gone within two years after a series of bizarre off-field videos.
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Then came 2021. Alex Leatherwood at No. 17.
I remember the collective gasp from the draft pundits when that name was called. Leatherwood was a "reach" by every metric known to man. He struggled so significantly at right tackle that he was moved to guard, then cut after just one season. One. For a first-round pick, that is essentially a death sentence for a GM's reputation.
But here’s the thing: it wasn't all bad.
- Josh Jacobs (No. 24, 2019) became the engine of the offense for years.
- Kolton Miller (No. 15, 2018) was hammered by critics on draft night but turned into a franchise left tackle and the literal only stable piece of the line for half a decade.
It's this weird "boom or catastrophic bust" cycle that defines the franchise.
The Brock Bowers Shift and the 2024 Strategy
Everything felt a bit different in 2024. When Tom Telesco stepped in as GM, everyone expected him to do what he did with the Chargers—find a cornerstone.
Selecting Brock Bowers at No. 13 in 2024 was fascinating because it was the first time in a long time the Raiders didn't reach. In fact, many people thought Bowers was a top-5 talent who just fell because of a run on quarterbacks.
Was it weird to take a tight end when they already had Michael Mayer? Sure. But Bowers isn't just a tight end. He’s a weapon. Despite a nagging knee injury that limited him in his second year (2025), he still managed to put up 680 yards and 7 touchdowns in 12 games. He's the kind of "best player available" pick that the old Raiders would have ignored in favor of a 4.2-second 40-yard dash from a project receiver.
Raiders First Round Picks: The 2025 Gamble
Now we get to the current reality. In the 2025 draft, the Raiders went back to their roots a little bit, but with a modern twist. They took Ashton Jeanty, the human bowling ball from Boise State, at No. 6 overall.
Drafting a running back in the top 10 in 2025? It felt like 1995. But Pete Carroll—who was brought in to steer the ship—loves a dominant ground game. Jeanty is the kind of back who changes the gravity of a defense. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry as a rookie and basically carried an offense that was, let's be honest, struggling to find its identity at quarterback.
The pick was controversial because players like Jahdae Barron and Mason Graham were on the board. But for the first time in a while, there’s a clear vision. They aren't just picking "fast guys"; they are picking guys who fit a specific, physical identity.
What People Get Wrong About the "Bust" Label
The biggest misconception about Raiders first round picks is that they fail because they are "bad players."
Often, they fail because the Raiders have been a coaching carousel. Look at Tyree Wilson (No. 7, 2023). He’s been labeled a bust by some, but he’s basically a rotational edge rusher who has had to learn three different defensive philosophies in three years. That’s hard for a guy who was always a "traits" prospect.
When you look at guys like Khalil Mack or Charles Woodson, they thrived because they were undeniable. But for the guys in the middle—the Clelin Ferrells of the world—the lack of organizational stability is what actually kills their careers.
Looking Toward the 2026 Draft
As we sit here in early 2026, the stakes have never been higher. The Raiders are staring at the No. 1 overall pick.
The rumors are swirling around Fernando Mendoza, the Indiana quarterback who basically set the world on fire last season. The Raiders have to get this right. You can miss on a defensive end or a reach for a reach for a guard, but you cannot miss on a No. 1 overall quarterback.
What the Raiders need to do differently this time around:
- Stop overthinking the "Raider Way": You don't need a guy who fits a "toughness" archetype if he can't play ball.
- Trust the consensus scouts: Most of the Raiders' biggest misses (Leatherwood, Arnette, Ferrell) were picks where they thought they were smarter than the rest of the league.
- Build the infrastructure first: A rookie QB behind a shaky line is just a recipe for another "What happened to..." documentary in five years.
The history of Raiders first round picks is a wild ride of Hall of Famers like Marcus Allen and absolute head-scratchers like JaMarcus Russell. There is no middle ground in Las Vegas.
If you're looking to track how these picks are actually performing, you need to look past the box score. Watch how Jackson Powers-Johnson (the 2024 second-rounder who many argue should have been a first) is holding the interior together. Check the advanced pressure rates for Tyree Wilson, which are actually trending up despite the low sack totals.
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To really understand where this team is going, keep a close eye on the 2026 NFL Combine results. The front office is still obsessed with elite athleticism, but under the new regime, they seem to be pairing that athleticism with actual football IQ. The "Reach Era" might finally be over, but in Vegas, the house always has a trick up its sleeve.
Stay tuned to the official team transactions and the post-season grading reports to see if the 2026 pick finally breaks the cycle of uncertainty.
Next Steps for Raiders Fans:
Track the performance of the current roster by checking the Post-Season Player Grades usually released in February. This gives you a better idea of who is actually a "bust" and who is just a victim of a bad scheme before the 2026 Draft kicks off in April.