The Divisional Round just wrapped its first half, and honestly, the vibes under center are weird. We spent years waiting for the "next generation" to take over, but looking at the qb rankings this week, it's clear the transition isn't just happening—it’s a total wrecking ball. If you told me three years ago that we’d be watching Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford fight for NFC supremacy while Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson watched from their couches, I would’ve asked for whatever you were drinking.
But here we are.
The playoffs have a way of exposing the "it" factor. This week, that factor hasn't been about raw arm talent or $50 million-a-year contracts. It's been about surviving. With Bo Nix reportedly out for the season with an ankle injury after leading Denver to a massive overtime win against Buffalo, the entire AFC landscape just shifted on its axis.
The Playoff Heat Map: QB Rankings This Week
If we’re talking pure performance in the Divisional Round, the list starts with the guy who refuses to age. Matthew Stafford is playing some of the most clinical football of his seventeen-year career. He didn't just beat the Panthers last week; he dismantled them. He enters this week as the only remaining quarterback with a Super Bowl ring. That experience gap is a canyon right now.
- Matthew Stafford (Rams): He’s the undisputed king of the hill this week. Leading the league with 46 touchdowns and only 8 picks during the regular season wasn't a fluke. His "no-look" game is still elite, and he’s currently on a playoff heater with multiple touchdowns in seven straight postseason appearances.
- Drake Maye (Patriots): The kid is real. Leading the league in completion percentage (72%) as a sophomore is absurd. He just smothered the Texans 28-16, showing a level of poise that makes Foxborough fans think the Brady era never actually ended.
- Sam Darnold (Seahawks): The "Shanahan School of Second Chances" graduate just hung 41 points on his former team, the 49ers. It was a bloodbath. Darnold isn't just a bridge QB anymore; he’s a legit weapon in that Seattle system.
- Caleb Williams (Bears): He’s been a bit of a rollercoaster, but his "big-time throw" rate remains top-tier. He’s heading into a massive showdown with Stafford, and while he struggled with accuracy against Green Bay, his ability to create out of structure is the only reason Chicago is still alive.
The AFC’s Power Vacuum and the Nix Injury
The biggest story affecting the qb rankings this week isn't even about a guy who will play next Sunday. Bo Nix leading the Broncos to a 33-30 victory over Josh Allen was supposed to be his arrival party. Instead, the news of his season-ending ankle injury has turned Denver from a favorite into a giant question mark.
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Josh Allen, meanwhile, is in a tough spot. He’s the all-time playoff leader in total yards per game, but he’s now 0-5 in playoff road starts. People keep waiting for him to be the "Chiefs-slayer," but with Mahomes already out, Allen couldn't even get past a rookie-led Broncos squad. It raises a fair question: is the "Superman" style of play sustainable when the defense knows exactly when you're going to tuck and run?
Why the "System QB" Label is Dying
We need to talk about Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold. For a long time, scouts hated the idea of a "system" guy. But looking at the efficiency of the remaining teams, the system is the point. Purdy has five playoff wins. That’s one fewer than Stafford. Think about that for a second.
The Seahawks-49ers game was a masterclass in why coaching matters as much as the guy taking the snap. Darnold looked like an All-Pro because the scheme protected him. On the flip side, C.J. Stroud found out the hard way that a dominant defense like New England’s can make even the best young stars look pedestrian. Stroud fumbled five times in the Wild Card round and still won, but that luck ran out against Drake Maye.
Looking Ahead: The Rookie vs. The Vet
The upcoming NFC Championship matchup (or the road to it) is basically a "History of the NFL Draft" seminar. You have the No. 1 overall pick in Caleb Williams trying to out-duel the elder statesman Stafford.
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Stafford is averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game in the postseason. That’s second-most in NFL history for anyone with at least 10 starts. If the Bears want to pull an upset, they can't rely on Williams "finding some magic" in the fourth quarter. They need to replicate what the Patriots did to Stroud: relentless pressure and taking away the first read.
The Offseason Carousel is Already Starting
It’s weird to think about the draft when the Super Bowl isn't even here yet, but the qb rankings this week are also being shaped by who isn't playing.
- Tua Tagovailoa is likely done in Miami after being benched for Quinn Ewers.
- Kyler Murray might be the next big trade target, with rumors swirling about a potential move to a team like the Dolphins.
- Jalen Hurts and the Eagles had a disappointing exit, leading some to wonder if Philadelphia is bold enough to move on from a former Super Bowl MVP.
The 2026 draft class is being called "underwhelming" by many scouts, which means the veteran trade market is going to be absolute chaos. If you’re a team like the Jets or the Raiders, you’re probably looking at someone like Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore in the draft, but the lure of a "rehab project" like Daniel Jones under a guy like Kyle Shanahan is always there.
Actionable Takeaways for Playoff Betting and Fantasy
If you're looking at the board for the next round, keep these specific metrics in mind.
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First, look at EPA per dropback. Drake Maye led the league here (0.28), which is why the Patriots feel so safe even when they aren't explosive. They stay ahead of the sticks.
Second, watch the blitz pick-up. Caleb Williams has struggled when teams send more than four. Stafford, conversely, has the highest passer rating in the league against the blitz this year. If the Bears defensive coordinator gets greedy, Stafford will carve them up before the rush even gets home.
Finally, keep an eye on the injury report for the Denver backup situation. With Nix out, the AFC is basically New England’s to lose.
Next Steps:
- Track the New England Defense: They just held a high-powered Texans offense to 16 points; see if they can maintain that pressure against the winner of the next AFC slot.
- Monitor Stafford’s Elbow: He’s been on a heater, but at 37, the volume of throws in these playoff games is something to watch for late-game fatigue.
- Check the 2026 Draft Order: With several QB-needy teams officially out, the mock drafts for guys like Mendoza and Moore are starting to solidify.