It was supposed to be the "deal of the century" for Moscow.
When Donald Trump returned to the White House in early 2025, the air in the Kremlin was thick with a kind of smug anticipation. You could almost feel it through the TV screens. The narrative was simple: the "adults" were back in the room, and they were going to carve up the world over steak and expensive water.
But as we hit early 2026, that cozy vibe has curdled into something much weirder.
Honestly, if you've been watching the news lately, you've seen a version of Vladimir Putin that doesn't fit the usual "chess master" trope. He’s being uncharacteristically quiet. While the Russian state media—led by firebrands like Vladimir Solovyov and Margarita Simonyan—is screaming about American "piracy" in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolás Maduro, the man at the top is essentially ghosting the White House.
The Silence is the Message
The Putin response to Trump right now isn't a speech. It’s a void.
Why? Because the "multipolar world" Putin spent twenty years building just got hit by a wrecking ball wearing a MAGA hat. For years, Putin relied on the idea that the U.S. was a predictable, rule-bound giant that he could provoke and then hide behind international law.
Then came the Venezuela operation.
In early January 2026, U.S. forces carried out a stunningly aggressive mission to seize Maduro. They even snagged a Russian-flagged tanker in the Caribbean. Standard Putin logic says he should be rattling the nuclear saber or at least calling an emergency UN Security Council meeting to lecture the world on sovereignty.
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Instead? Silence.
The Kremlin didn't even issue an official presidential statement for days. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did the "boilerplate" condemnation thing, sure. He called it an "unacceptable violation." But Putin himself stayed out of the light. Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and Chatham House suggest this isn't weakness—it's a desperate balancing act.
Putin is basically trying to signal to Trump that he won't get in the way of America’s "backyard" (Latin America) if Trump gives him a free hand in Russia’s "near abroad" (Ukraine). It’s a brutal, 19th-century style trade-off.
The Ukraine Stalling Game
While Venezuela burns, the real meat of the Putin response to Trump is happening in the freezing trenches of Donbas.
Trump has been pushing his peace plan since late 2025. He even met Putin in Alaska back in August to try and hammer it out. The deal was supposedly simple: a ceasefire on the current front lines and a promise that Ukraine stays out of NATO.
But Putin isn't biting. At least, not yet.
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On January 15, 2026, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov tried a bit of "good cop" routine. He actually agreed with Trump’s claim that President Zelenskyy is the one "obstructing" peace. It’s a classic move. By agreeing with Trump’s rhetoric, Moscow is trying to drive a wedge between Washington and Kyiv.
"Yes, we can agree with it, it's indeed so," Peskov told reporters when asked about Trump’s latest Truth Social blast against the Ukrainian leadership.
But don't let the polite agreement fool you. Behind the scenes, the Putin response to Trump has been one of constant escalation.
- September 2025: Record-breaking drone strikes on Ukrainian cities.
- December 2025: Systematic destruction of the Ukrainian power grid.
- January 2026: Continued refusal to set a date for the next round of talks with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy.
Putin is betting that he can outlast Trump's patience. He thinks Trump's "peace through strength" is mostly talk. And since Trump is currently distracted by a child-trafficking scandal involving Jeffrey Epstein’s files and a massive military build-up in Greenland, Putin thinks he has time.
Greenland and the Arctic "Bromance"
Speaking of Greenland, this is where the Putin response to Trump gets kinda hilarious.
While the rest of the world is horrified by Trump’s renewed obsession with buying or "liberating" Greenland from Denmark, the Russians are cheering. Vladimir Solovyov literally laughed on his show, saying he "always knew Trump wouldn't leave Greenland alone."
Russia's official stance? "It has nothing to do with us."
But it has everything to do with them. If the U.S. gets bogged down in a diplomatic war with Europe over Greenland, NATO fractures. That’s Putin’s Christmas, New Year’s, and birthday all wrapped in one. They’ve even started floating the idea of a "Putin-Trump tunnel" across the Bering Sea. It sounds like sci-fi, but it’s the kind of ego-stroking project that keeps the channel open between the two men.
What Most People Get Wrong
People think Putin and Trump are best friends. They aren't. They are two sharks in a small tank.
The Putin response to Trump in 2026 is defined by a loss of initiative. For the first time, Trump is the one breaking international norms faster than Putin can. When Trump seizes a Russian ship or "snatches" a head of state, Putin’s old playbook of "whataboutism" doesn't work because Trump just says, "Yeah, so what?"
This has left the Russian "Z-bloggers"—the ultra-nationalist war hawks—absolutely livid. They want Putin to sink American ships. They think he’s looking weak.
Nina Khrushcheva, a noted expert on Russian politics, pointed out recently that Putin’s silence might betray a "profound uncertainty." He doesn't know where Trump’s "red lines" are because Trump doesn't seem to have any.
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Actionable Insights: What to Watch Next
If you’re trying to figure out where this goes, ignore the big speeches. Watch the small stuff.
- Watch the "Oil Tanker" Diplomacy: If the U.S. keeps seizing Russian-flagged ships and Putin doesn't retaliate, he's effectively conceding the high seas to Trump in exchange for a deal on Ukraine.
- Monitor the Witkoff Visits: If Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff gets snubbed again in February, it means Putin has decided to wait for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections to see if Trump’s power holds.
- Check the Energy Grid: If Russia stops hitting Ukrainian heaters in the dead of winter, that’s the first real sign a "Putin response" involves a genuine ceasefire.
The bottom line? We are in a "Year of the Savage." International law is basically a suggestion at this point. Putin is trying to find a way to stay relevant in a world where he is no longer the most unpredictable man in the room.
Next Steps for Following the Situation:
Keep a close eye on the official Kremlin "TASS" feed for any mention of the Bering Sea tunnel project. It’s often used as a bellwether for how "friendly" the back-channel communications are. Additionally, track the movement of the Russian Northern Fleet; any shift toward Greenland would signal that the "Arctic cooperation" is actually a cover for a new military standoff. Finally, verify the status of the "peace through strength" sanctions package in the U.S. Senate—if Lindsey Graham gets his way, the Putin response to Trump will likely shift from silence to open hostility very quickly.