College football is basically a year-round soap opera now. You think the season ends when the confetti falls, but then the transfer portal opens, coaches play musical chairs, and suddenly the team you thought would be rebuilding is sitting in the top five. Projecting AP Top 25 rankings isn't just about who won the last game; it's about predicting how sixty-some sportswriters will react to a flurry of roster changes and spring hype.
Honestly, it’s a mess.
We just saw Indiana finish an absolutely historic run under Curt Cignetti, with Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza essentially rewriting what’s possible in Bloomington. Now, as we look toward the 2026 season, the "way-early" polls are already surfacing. Most people just copy-paste the playoff teams from last year and call it a day. That’s a mistake. The AP poll has a personality. It rewards "blue blood" brands, sure, but it also gets easily distracted by shiny new transfer quarterbacks and returning starters.
The Art of the Preseason Guess
If you want to get good at projecting the AP Top 25, you have to think like a voter. These aren't robots. They’re humans who have to submit a ballot by 2:00 PM on a Sunday while potentially hungover from a triple-overtime night game. They look for continuity.
Take Oregon, for example. Dan Lanning has turned Eugene into a recruiting factory. While they lost some key pieces to the NFL, the news of Dante Moore returning for the 2026 season changed the entire math for the Ducks. Most early projections have them firmly in the top four because of that stability at the most important position. You've also got the "Big Ten Factor." After Ohio State and Indiana dominated the narrative recently, expect the voters to lean heavily into that conference again.
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Why Continuity Beats Talent Every Time
Last year taught us that talent without experience is a trap.
- The Quarterback Bridge: Look at Arch Manning at Texas. The hype is gargantuan. Because he’s a Manning and he’s at Texas, the Longhorns will almost certainly be projected in the top three. Is it deserved? Maybe. But for an AP voter, a known name with high upside is a safe "anchor" for a ballot.
- The Portal Effect: We used to talk about recruiting classes. Now, we talk about "acquisitions." If a team like Ole Miss or Miami lands three defensive starters from the portal in one week, they’ll jump five spots in a projection without playing a single snap.
- The SEC "Loss Buffer": This is a real thing. AP voters give SEC teams a "mulligan" for losses that would kill a Big 12 or ACC team’s ranking.
Projecting AP Top 25: The 2026 Power Shifts
The landscape has shifted. We aren't in the four-team playoff era anymore. In the 12-team (and potentially 14-team) era, the AP poll serves as a psychological precursor to the Selection Committee rankings.
Currently, the buzz is centered on the Big Ten's dominance. With Indiana and Ohio State leading the charge, and Oregon reloading with Dante Moore, the top of the poll feels very "North vs. South." Georgia, despite some recent hiccups in tight games, remains the standard-bearer for the SEC. Kirby Smart’s ability to retain talent like Lawson Luckie and Ethan Barbour at tight end gives them a floor that most programs can only dream of.
The Teams People Are Sleeping On
Everyone talks about the heavy hitters. But what about the mid-tier teams that always seem to ruin a Saturday for a powerhouse?
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Texas Tech is a prime example. Joey McGuire has figured out the NIL game in Lubbock. They aren't just getting players; they're getting the right players. If you're projecting the lower half of the Top 25, ignore the Red Raiders at your own peril. They have the "roster carbon copy" blueprint that keeps them relevant.
Then there’s Notre Dame. They are the ultimate AP Top 25 enigma. They always start high—usually in the top ten—because they’re independent and have a massive brand. Voters love a good "Is Notre Dame back?" narrative.
How to Build Your Own Projection
If you’re trying to beat the "experts" at their own game, you need a system. Don't just look at the record. Look at the "Expected Points Added" (EPA) and the returning production.
- Step 1: Identify the "Safe" Top 5. These are the teams with returning QBs and high-level coaches (Oregon, Texas, Ohio State, Georgia).
- Step 2: Find the "Portal Kings." Look at who won the winter transfer cycle. These teams will get the "hype bump" in the August poll.
- Step 3: Account for the Schedule. A team with a brutal September might be ranked lower than they should be because voters know they’re likely to start 1-2.
The AP poll is essentially a momentum tracker. It’s not always about who the best team is, but who is the most impressive at that exact moment. When you're projecting the AP Top 25, you're not just scouting players; you're scouting the national mood.
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Navigating the Bias
Let’s be real: regional bias exists. A voter in Alabama isn’t watching as much Pac-12 (or what’s left of it) or Mountain West ball as someone in Seattle. This leads to a "sticky" ranking system where teams in the SEC or Big Ten stay ranked longer even after a bad loss. If you want to accurately predict where a team will land, you have to bake that bias into your numbers.
For 2026, the narrative is "Big Ten Supremacy." Whether it's true or not doesn't matter as much as the fact that the people with the ballots believe it.
Actionable Strategy for 2026
To stay ahead of the curve, keep an eye on the January 19th National Championship fallout. The winner of Indiana vs. Miami will dictate the "vibe" of the entire offseason. If Indiana pulls it off, the "underdog turned powerhouse" story will carry them to a No. 1 preseason ranking in 2026. If Miami wins, the ACC gets a much-needed credibility boost.
Monitor the "Blue Chip Ratio." Teams with over 50% four and five-star recruits on their roster are the only ones with a statistical shot at staying in the Top 10 for the duration of the season.
Watch the quarterback movement until the very last day of the spring portal window. A single commitment can swing a team from "Receiving Votes" to a Top 15 lock. Stay focused on the rosters of Ohio State, Texas, and Georgia, as they currently hold the most "draft-eligible" talent that chose to stay in school, which is the ultimate cheat code for AP voters.