Honestly, if you looked at the pro football standings 2024 back in September, you probably thought you had it all figured out. The Chiefs were going to cruise. The Lions were a nice story, but surely they’d "Lions" it up eventually.
You were wrong. We were all a little bit wrong.
The 2024 season wasn't just another year of football; it was a statistical middle finger to everything we thought we knew about parity and "any given Sunday." We witnessed two different teams—the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions—finish with 15-2 records. That doesn't happen. In the modern 17-game era, hitting 15 wins is like catching lightning in a bottle while riding a unicycle. To have two teams do it in the same year? That’s just greedy.
The NFC North Was a Literal Meat Grinder
Let’s talk about the NFC North for a second because what happened there was actually historic. Usually, a division has a clear bottom-feeder. You know, the team that everyone circles on the calendar as a "get right" game.
Not in 2024.
The NFC North became the best division in the history of the sport by win percentage. Seriously. The combined winning percentage was $0.662$. The Lions led the pack at 15-2, but look at the carnage behind them. The Minnesota Vikings finished 14-3. In almost any other year, 14-3 gets you a first-round bye and home-field advantage. In 2024, for the Vikings, it barely got them a pat on the back because Detroit was busy setting the world on fire.
Even the Green Bay Packers, who finished 11-6, ended up as one of the best third-place teams ever. It was a "murderer's row" situation where every divisional game felt like a playoff matchup.
The Lions: From Punchline to Powerhouse
Detroit didn't just win games; they embarrassed people. They finished with a point differential of $+222$. That is a ridiculous number. It means on average, they were beating teams by about 13 points every single week.
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- Amon-Ra St. Brown was basically a cheat code.
- Jared Goff played with the clinical precision of a surgeon.
- Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery were the "Sonic and Knuckles" of the backfield.
But here is the kicker: despite that 15-2 regular season and the #1 seed, they didn't even make the Super Bowl. They got bounced in the Divisional Round by a Washington Commanders team led by Jayden Daniels in a 45-31 shootout. Football is cruel.
The AFC West and the Chiefs' "Boring" Dominance
Over in the AFC, the pro football standings 2024 told a different story. The Kansas City Chiefs also went 15-2, but it felt... weird. Unlike the Lions, who were dropping 50-burgers on people, the Chiefs were winning ugly.
They became the first team to win 15 games without ever scoring more than 30 points in a single regular-season contest. Think about that. Patrick Mahomes, the human highlight reel, was essentially managing games while Steve Spagnuolo’s defense smothered everyone.
They won 11 games by one score. 11! That’s a lot of heart attacks for the folks in Missouri. But as we’ve learned, betting against Andy Reid in January is a great way to lose your mortgage. They clawed through the AFC playoffs, handled the Texans, and outlasted the Buffalo Bills (again) in a 32-29 AFC Championship thriller to return to the big stage.
Why the Final Standings Didn't Predict the Super Bowl
If you only looked at the records, you’d assume Super Bowl LIX was destined to be a Chiefs vs. Lions rematch of the season opener.
Nope.
The Philadelphia Eagles, who finished 11-6 and won the NFC East, decided to remind everyone why they were preseason favorites. While the world was obsessed with Detroit's offense and Minnesota's resurgence, the Eagles stayed healthy at the right time. Saquon Barkley turned back the clock, and Jalen Hurts found his rhythm in the postseason.
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The playoffs are a different beast. The 15-win curse is real. The Lions fell early. The Chiefs made it to the Super Bowl but finally ran out of gas, losing 40-22 to Philadelphia.
Breaking Down the Playoff Seeds
| Seed | AFC Team | Record | NFC Team | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs | 15-2 | Lions | 15-2 |
| 2 | Bills | 12-5 | Vikings | 14-3 |
| 3 | Ravens | 13-4 | Eagles | 11-6 |
| 4 | Texans | 10-7 | Falcons | 8-9 |
| 5 | Steelers | 10-7 | Packers | 11-6 |
| 6 | Broncos | 9-8 | Rams | 10-7 |
| 7 | Chargers | 9-8 | Commanders | 10-7 |
Honestly, look at that NFC #2 seed. The Vikings going 14-3 and being a "Wild Card" team in spirit (since Detroit took the division) is just insane. It highlights the flaw—or the beauty, depending on who you ask—of the current playoff format.
Misconceptions About the 2024 Season
People love to say that the "gap is closing" between the bad teams and the good teams. The pro football standings 2024 actually suggest the opposite. We had a massive stratification.
The top teams (Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, Bills) were elite. They rarely slipped up against the bottom half of the league. However, the "middle class" of the NFL was almost non-existent. You were either a juggernaut or you were picking in the top ten of the draft.
Also, can we stop saying the AFC North is the toughest division? In 2024, it was the NFC North by a country mile. The AFC North was competitive, sure, but the Ravens and Steelers were the only ones who really looked like threats by December. The Bengals struggled with Joe Burrow's health early on, and the Browns... well, the Browns had a quarterback situation that was a total mystery for four months.
Surprising Details You Might Have Missed
One thing that doesn't show up in the basic W-L column is "Strength of Victory."
The Chiefs had a relatively low point differential ($+59$) for a 15-win team. If you use the Pythagorean expectation formula—which basically predicts how many games a team should have won based on points scored and allowed—the Chiefs "should" have been a 10-7 team.
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$$Expected Wins = \frac{PointsScored^{2.37}}{PointsScored^{2.37} + PointsAllowed^{2.37}} \times 17$$
When you plug their 385 points scored and 326 points allowed into that, you see they were the luckiest team in football history. Or the most clutch. It depends on whether you wear red and arrowhead-shaped gear or not.
Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions were the real deal. Their 15-2 record was backed up by elite stats in almost every category. They weren't lucky; they were a buzzsaw. Their loss to the Commanders in the playoffs remains one of the biggest statistical anomalies of the decade.
Actionable Insights for Next Season
If you're looking at these standings to try and figure out what happens in 2025 and 2026, here is the expert takeaway:
- Regression is Coming for the North: It is statistically impossible for the NFC North to maintain a $0.662$ win percentage. Expect those teams to cannibalize each other next year.
- Watch the "Under-Performers": The Houston Texans finished 10-7 but showed flashes of being a top-three team. Their standing in 2024 was suppressed by a brutal strength of schedule. They are the "buy low" team for 2025.
- The 15-Win Hangover: History shows that teams coming off 15-win seasons often struggle the following year due to late draft picks, coaching departures (look at Ben Johnson in Detroit), and the mental toll of a long season.
- The "Middle" Will Return: The NFL is designed for parity. The vacuum in the middle of the standings from 2024 will likely fill back up as bottom-tier teams like the Panthers and Patriots continue to rebuild through the draft.
The 2024 season was a wild ride that proved records don't always tell the whole story, but they certainly give us a lot to argue about at the bar. Keep an eye on the injury reports and coaching carousels this offseason—that's where the 2025 standings are actually being built right now.
Next Steps:
- Review the final 2024 defensive rankings to see which units are likely to remain elite.
- Analyze the 2025 NFL Draft order, which is now set based on these final standings.
- Track the coordinator hirings, especially for teams like Detroit and Kansas City that may lose key staff.