Draft season used to be a once-a-year event. You’d wait for Mel Kiper to drop a big board, argue about it for twenty minutes at the bar, and then move on with your life until late April. Not anymore. Now, thanks to the Pro Football Focus mock draft simulator, fans are basically running their own front offices from their phones while sitting in doctor's office waiting rooms or ignoring their laundry. It’s addictive. It’s also incredibly chaotic.
The thing about PFF is that they aren't just guessing based on "vibes" or what a scout whispered to them in a hallway. They’re using a mountain of proprietary data—college grades, win rates, pressure percentages—to calculate how a player might translate to the NFL. But if you’ve spent more than five minutes on the simulator, you know it can get weird. Fast. One minute you're snagging a generational tackle at pick ten, and the next, the AI is letting a top-five talent slide into the second round because of a specific team "need" algorithm.
The Reality Behind the PFF Mock Draft Algorithm
Most people think the simulator is just a random number generator. It’s actually way more complicated than that. PFF uses a blend of their own big board rankings and "mock draft data" to simulate what the other 31 teams will do. This is where the friction happens. Real NFL GMs don't always pick the best player available. They reach. They panic. They take a guy from a small school because the owner likes his "motor."
PFF's board is famously "anti-running back" in the early rounds. Their data shows that unless you’re getting a Christian McCaffrey-level threat, the positional value just isn't there in the first 32 picks. So, when you run a Pro Football Focus mock draft, you’ll often see elite college backs like Quinshon Judkins or Omarion Hampton falling way further than they would in a real-life draft room.
Contrast this with how NFL teams actually behave. In the real world, a coach on the hot seat will almost always take the "safe" playmaker over the "high-ceiling" offensive lineman with a 92.0 pass-blocking grade. The simulator struggles to account for that human desperation. It’s a tool built on logic in a sport that is often governed by ego and fear of being fired.
Why Your "A+" Grade Might Be Meaningless
We've all been there. You finish a seven-round haul, the screen flashes a big green "A+," and you feel like a genius. You've solved the roster holes for the Giants or the Raiders. But honestly? That grade is mostly a reflection of how closely you followed PFF’s internal rankings. If you draft the guys they have ranked highest at the moment you pick, you win. If you "reach" for a player that PFF has ranked 50 spots lower—even if every other draft expert thinks that player is a stud—your grade will tank.
Take the 2024 draft as an example. PFF was much higher on certain tackle prospects than the actual NFL league office seemed to be. If you picked according to the Pro Football Focus mock draft board, you were loading up on guys who ended up being third-rounders in reality.
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The Variance of "Big Boards"
It’s important to remember that PFF’s big board is curated by analysts like Steve Palazzolo and Sam Monson (though personnel changes constantly in the media world). They look at the "why" behind the play.
- Did the QB throw an interception because he’s bad?
- Or was it a "turnover-worthy play" that just happened to be caught?
- Conversely, did he throw a touchdown that was actually a terrible decision but the receiver bailed him out?
The simulator rewards you for drafting the "statistically sound" player. It doesn't care that the guy has a bad reputation in the locker room or that he struggled during his interviews at the Combine. This is the "Moneyball" of football. It’s brilliant, but it’s incomplete.
Using the Mock Draft Simulator for Actual Insight
If you want to actually get something out of your Pro Football Focus mock draft sessions beyond just a hits of dopamine, you have to stop trying to "beat" the game. Instead, use it to understand the board's depth.
The real value isn't in who goes at pick five. We usually know who the top five players are. The value is in seeing who is available at pick 45 or 75. This is where PFF’s depth of scouting shines. Because they grade every single snap of every single FBS game, their database on mid-round prospects is deeper than almost anyone else's.
You might find a corner from the Sun Belt who has an elite "forced incompletion" rate. The simulator will have him tucked away in the fourth round. In a real draft, that’s the kind of player a smart team like the Ravens or the Eagles snipes while everyone else is looking at the big-name schools.
Common Misconceptions About the PFF Rankings
A lot of fans get angry when they see their favorite college star ranked low on the PFF board. "How is he a 3rd rounder? He had 15 sacks!"
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PFF's grading system is "process-oriented." If a pass rusher gets a sack because the quarterback tripped or the right tackle literally fell down, they don't give the rusher a high grade for that play. They want to see the rusher beat his man with a move. This leads to a massive disconnect between "box score scouting" and PFF scouting.
When you’re running a Pro Football Focus mock draft, you’re engaging with a very specific philosophy. It’s a philosophy that values efficiency and repeatable skills over raw athleticism or luck. It’s why PFF loves "boring" players who never lose their reps but might not have the highlight-reel speed that makes Mike Mayock scream on TV.
The Trade Logic Gap
Let’s talk about the "Trade" button. It’s the most broken and beautiful part of the experience. In the simulator, you can often fleece the AI by offering a mountain of future second-round picks for a current top-ten selection.
In the real NFL, draft picks are valued using the "Jimmy Johnson Chart" or the more modern "Rich Hill Chart." These charts assign a point value to every pick. PFF uses its own "Wins Above Replacement" (WAR) data to value picks. Because PFF's data often suggests that mid-round picks are undervalued compared to top-five picks, the simulator will sometimes let you make trades that would get a real GM laughed out of the league.
But hey, if the Vikings want to give you three years of first-rounders to move up for a quarterback, you take it. Just don’t expect it to happen on draft night in April.
How to Prepare for Your Next Mock
Before you jump back into the Pro Football Focus mock draft engine, do a little homework outside of their ecosystem. Look at what the "grinders" are saying—the guys who watch the tape without the spreadsheets.
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- Check the Athletic’s "The Beast" by Dane Brugler once it drops.
- Compare PFF’s rankings to the Consensus Big Board.
- Look for "outliers"—players PFF loves that everyone else hates, and vice versa.
The outliers are where the drama happens. If PFF has a guy ranked 12th and the rest of the world has him 50th, that’s a player you need to watch. Either PFF has found a hidden gem, or they are over-weighting a specific stat that doesn't matter as much as they think it does.
What This Means for Your Team
Ultimately, the PFF mock is a tool for empathy. It helps you understand the impossible choices a GM has to make. Do you take the tackle to protect your franchise QB, or the edge rusher because your defense couldn't stop a high school team last year?
When you see the "draft needs" list for your team in the simulator, take it with a grain of salt. PFF might say your team needs a "Safety," but if your team’s defensive coordinator runs a scheme that doesn't rely on elite safety play, that "need" is irrelevant.
Actionable Insights for Draft Fans:
- Vary your settings: Don't just run the simulator on "Default." Crank up the "Randomness" slider. The NFL is chaotic; your mock drafts should be too.
- Ignore the Grade: Focus on the roster construction. Did you actually make the team better, or did you just hunt for high PFF grades?
- Track the "Fallers": Watch which players consistently slide in the simulator. These are often the players the PFF algorithm thinks are "overvalued" by the general public.
- Watch the Tape: If the simulator keeps giving you a guy you’ve never heard of, go find his highlights on YouTube. See if his "90.2 Grade" actually looks impressive to your eyes.
The draft is a gamble. PFF just tries to give you the best odds at the blackjack table. Use the data, enjoy the "A+" screens, but remember that on draft night, all the spreadsheets in the world can’t predict what happens when a team gets desperate and the clock is ticking.
Go start a new simulation. Try to trade back and accumulate ten picks in the top 100. See how the roster looks. That's the real magic of the Pro Football Focus mock draft—it lets you play "What If" until the real Commissioner finally walks onto the stage.
Study the PFF "Draft Guide" (the PDF they release every year) alongside the simulator. It explains the "why" behind the grades you see in the mock tool. Understanding that a player’s "Pass Block Efficiency" is more predictive than his bench press reps will change how you view the entire draft process.