If you’ve been following the NFL for more than a minute, you know that October is when the pretenders start gasping for air. It's go time. Pete Prisco, the senior NFL scribe over at CBS Sports, didn't mince words heading into the mid-October slate. Coming off an 8-6 straight-up performance in Week 5, he was sitting at a comfortable 57-20-1 for the season. But Week 6? That’s where the real "contender vs. pretender" narrative took flight.
The vibe of Prisco Picks Week 6 was basically "desperation meets firepower." You had the Kansas City Chiefs coming off a short week after a bruising loss to the Jaguars, staring down a Detroit Lions team that was physically beat up but still dangerous. It was the kind of week where the lines were tight and the stakes for teams like the Dolphins and Raiders felt like they were at a breaking point.
The Big One: Lions at Chiefs
This was the headliner. Prisco looked at this and saw a high-scoring track meet. The Chiefs were in what he called "desperation mode," and honestly, a cornered Patrick Mahomes is usually the last thing a banged-up defense wants to see.
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Detroit’s secondary was struggling with injuries, and Prisco gambled on Mahomes exploiting those gaps late in the game. He called for a 34-30 Chiefs victory. It wasn't just about the win; it was about the Chiefs proving they could still out-gun the league's rising stars when their backs were against the wall.
QB Showdowns and London Fog
The Week 6 schedule was weirdly spread out, starting with the London game. You had the Denver Broncos (-7.5) taking on the New York Jets across the pond. Prisco liked the Broncos to handle business there, predicting a 27-14 win, mostly because the Jets' offense couldn't seem to find its rhythm in the early morning air.
Then you had the "Draft Duel" on Monday Night Football: Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels.
- The Matchup: Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders.
- The Context: These two went 1 and 2 in the draft. Last time they met, Daniels won on a Hail Mary.
- The Pick: Prisco went with the Commanders, 31-27.
- The Reasoning: He basically felt Jayden Daniels would simply outplay Williams in the clutch, continuing the trend of the Commanders being a surprising powerhouse in the NFC East.
Other Key Picks from the Slate
Prisco had some strong feelings about the "mess" in Baltimore. With Lamar Jackson sidelined, he didn't trust the Ravens' defense to stop a cold, let alone the Los Angeles Rams. He took the Rams 31-17, noting that the Ravens were effectively a ship without a rudder at that point in the season.
In the AFC South, he leaned into the Jaguars' momentum. Even though Seattle is a long flight for anyone, the Jaguars were playing on a short week, which Prisco figured would even the playing field. He predicted a 33-30 shootout in favor of Jacksonville.
The most "Prisco" pick of the week might have been the Dolphins upsetting the Chargers. Everyone was down on Miami after a loss to the Panthers, but Pete saw Tua Tagovailoa bouncing back against a Chargers team that was "on the verge of throwing away their 3-0 start." He called a 27-26 nail-biter for Miami.
Why the Colts Were the Only Safe Bet
Heading into Prisco Picks Week 6, the Indianapolis Colts were the only team Pete was perfect on. He was 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread with Indy.
Naturally, he didn't blink when picking them to beat the Cardinals. Arizona was coming off what he described as a "demoralizing" collapse against the Titans. He didn't think they’d be mentally recovered. He locked in a 27-24 Colts win, trusting Daniel Jones (who was under center for Indy in this 2025-26 timeline) to keep the chains moving.
Making Sense of the Chaos
Betting or even just prognosticating on the NFL is a fool’s errand sometimes. Prisco acknowledged that his Week 5 was "average," but his Week 6 strategy focused on two things: quarterback health and "the bounce back."
Teams like the 49ers and Buccaneers were in a dogfight for NFC supremacy. Prisco actually went with the Buccaneers 30-20 over the Niners, citing San Francisco’s mounting injury list and the Bucs' knack for winning close games with late field goals. It was a bold call, considering the 49ers' pedigree, but that’s the Prisco way—he trusts his eyes over the "Power Rankings" hype.
Actionable Takeaways for Your Own Picks
If you're trying to mirror the success (or at least the logic) of Prisco Picks Week 6, you've gotta look at the "Situational Spot."
- Avoid the "London Hangover": Teams playing in London or coming back from it often have skewed performance data. Prisco usually looks for the more stable defensive unit in these games.
- Short Week Desperation: A great team coming off a loss on a short week (like the Chiefs) is almost always a "buy" for Prisco. The urgency overrides the fatigue.
- The "Draft Rivalry" Factor: In games like Bears vs. Commanders, don't just look at the stats. Look at the narrative. The pressure on a rookie QB to outplay his draft rival often leads to high-variance, high-scoring games.
Stop looking at the season-long stats and start looking at the specific injury reports for the offensive line. Prisco often mentions how a "banged-up interior" ruins even the best quarterbacks. If you see a star QB like Geno Smith struggling, look at who's missing in front of him before you blame his arm.
Keep an eye on the Wednesday and Thursday injury reports before locking in any bets for the upcoming slate. It’s the only way to catch the value before the lines move.