Price to earnings in stocks: Why this one number determines your wealth

Price to earnings in stocks: Why this one number determines your wealth

You're staring at a ticker symbol. The price is $150. Is that cheap? Is it expensive? Honestly, you have no way of knowing just by looking at the price tag. Buying a stock based solely on the price is like buying a house because the address is a lucky number. You need a yardstick. That’s exactly what price to earnings in stocks provides. It’s the closest thing Wall Street has to a "value" button, though it’s a lot more finicky than most people realize.

Basically, the P/E ratio tells you how much investors are willing to pay today for $1 of a company's profit.

Think about it this way. If a lemonade stand makes $100 a year and the owner wants $1,000 to sell it to you, the P/E is 10. You’re paying ten times the annual earnings. If they want $5,000, the P/E is 50. At a P/E of 50, you’re waiting half a century to get your money back if profits don’t grow. That’s a long time to wait for a glass of sugar water.

The math behind the curtain

Calculating price to earnings in stocks isn't rocket science. You take the current share price and divide it by the Earnings Per Share (EPS).

$$P/E = \frac{\text{Market Value per Share}}{\text{Earnings per Share}}$$

If Nvidia is trading at $120 and their earnings over the last twelve months were $4.00 per share, the P/E is 30. Simple. But here is where it gets messy. Not all "earnings" are created equal. Companies use different accounting tricks to make those numbers look pretty. You've got "Trailing P/E," which looks at the past year, and "Forward P/E," which is basically a professional guess about what will happen next year.

Analysts like FactSet or Bloomberg spend all day arguing over these projections. If a CEO is optimistic, that Forward P/E might look cheap. If they’re lying or just wrong? You’re buying a trap.

Why some stocks look "expensive" but aren't

You’ll often see tech giants like Amazon or Salesforce trading at P/E ratios of 80, 100, or even 500. A beginner might look at that and think, "No way, that's a bubble."

Maybe. But maybe not.

High P/E ratios usually mean the market expects massive growth. Investors are "paying up" now because they think the $1 of profit today will be $10 of profit in three years. Look at Amazon in the early 2010s. The P/E was often nonsensical because Jeff Bezos was reinvesting every single penny back into the business. On paper, earnings were tiny. But the company was becoming a juggernaut.

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Contrast that with a "boring" stock like Ford or Verizon. These often trade at a P/E of 6 or 8. Why? Because nobody expects Ford to suddenly double its global sales next Tuesday. They are mature. They are steady. They are "cheap" because the growth potential is capped.

The trap of the low P/E ratio

Low P/E ratios can be dangerous. It’s called a value trap. Sometimes a stock is cheap because the company is dying. If a typewriter company has a P/E of 2, it’s not a bargain. It’s a liquidation sale.

You have to look at the industry average. Comparing the P/E of a software company to a steel mill is useless. Software has high margins and low overhead. Steel mills have massive factories and expensive labor. According to data from NYU Stern professor Aswath Damodaran—often called the "Dean of Valuation"—different sectors have wildly different "normal" P/E ranges. You’ve got to compare apples to apples.

Context is everything in valuation

Interest rates change everything. When the Federal Reserve raises rates, P/E ratios usually shrink. Why? Because if you can get a guaranteed 5% return on a government bond, you aren't going to pay a massive premium for a risky stock. This is why 2022 was such a bloodbath for tech stocks. It wasn't that the companies suddenly stopped working; it's that the "math" of the P/E ratio shifted as interest rates climbed.

There is also the "Shiller P/E," or CAPE ratio. Developed by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, this looks at earnings over a ten-year period, adjusted for inflation. It smooths out the bumps of the business cycle. If the CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 is way above its historical average of 16-17, some people start heading for the exits.

Using P/E to actually make a decision

So, you've found a stock. The price to earnings in stocks you're looking at is 25. What now?

  1. Check the historical trend. Is this company's P/E usually 15? If so, why is it 25 now? Are they launching a new product, or is it just hype?
  2. Look at the PEG ratio. This is the P/E divided by the growth rate. A P/E of 40 might be fine if the company is growing at 40% a year.
  3. Ignore the "E" if it's fake. Watch out for "one-time gains." If a company sells a building, their earnings spike for one quarter. This makes the P/E look tiny. It’s a mirage. Always look for "normalized" earnings.

Don't let one number do all the work for you. A P/E ratio is a snapshot. It’s a single frame in a two-hour movie. To understand the whole story, you need to see where the earnings are coming from and if they’re sustainable.

Actionable steps for your portfolio

Don't just buy the lowest P/E you can find. That's a recipe for a portfolio full of stagnant companies. Instead, look for a "reasonable" P/E relative to the company's own history and its direct competitors.

Open a tool like Yahoo Finance or your brokerage's research tab. Pull up three competitors—say, Pepsi, Coca-Cola, and Keurig Dr Pepper. Compare their P/E ratios. If one is significantly higher, ask yourself why. If you can't find a good reason (like higher growth or less debt), you might have found an overvalued stock.

The most successful investors use price to earnings in stocks as a filter, not a final answer. It helps you eliminate the obvious garbage so you can focus on the businesses that actually make sense at their current price. Stop looking at the ticker price. Start looking at the earnings power behind it. That's how you actually build wealth in the long run.

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Verify the "quality" of earnings by checking the free cash flow. If earnings are high but cash flow is negative, the P/E is lying to you. Companies can manipulate earnings with accounting, but it’s much harder to fake actual cash moving into a bank account. Always cross-reference the P/E with the cash flow statement to ensure the "Earnings" part of the ratio is real.