If you’re looking for a simple answer to the price of wheat today, you’re basically asking for a snapshot of a moving train. As of Thursday, January 15, 2026, the markets are doing that annoying thing where they settle into a range that makes everyone a little nervous but nobody particularly rich.
Wheat prices are hovering around $5.10 to $5.16 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) for March delivery.
Honestly, it's a bit of a slog. We’ve seen a slight uptick—maybe a few cents—over the last 24 hours, but nothing that’s going to make a baker jump for joy or a farmer rush to buy a new tractor. It’s a game of "wait and see" right now.
What is the price of wheat today and why does it keep shifting?
To understand the price of wheat today, you have to look at the massive dump of data we just got from the USDA. On January 12, they released the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. It was a bit of a reality check.
The report basically told the world: "Hey, we have more wheat than we thought."
Domestic ending stocks in the US were bumped up to 926 million bushels. That’s an 8% jump from last year. When there’s more grain sitting in silos, the price usually takes a hit. It’s basic supply and demand, though it feels a lot more personal when you’re the one paying for the flour.
Here is a quick look at where things stand across the different "flavors" of wheat:
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- Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRW): Trading around $5.10 - $5.12. This is the stuff used for cookies and crackers. It’s been under pressure because export competition is brutal right now.
- Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW): Slightly higher, sitting near $5.22 - $5.26. This is your bread wheat. It’s holding a small premium because of some dry weather concerns in the Southern Plains, but even that is getting capped by big global numbers.
- Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat (HRS): These futures are still the "expensive" ones, often hovering closer to $5.90 - $6.00, though they’ve softened from the peaks we saw late last year.
The Ghost of Argentina and the Global Glut
You can’t talk about the price of wheat without talking about Argentina. They are absolutely crushing it this season.
Nearly 90% of their harvest is finished, and they’re looking at a record 27.5 million tons. That is roughly 50% larger than what they pulled off last year. Because they have so much, they are willing to sell it cheap to Asia and the Middle East.
When Argentina drops their pants on price, everyone else has to follow suit or watch their grain rot in the bin.
Then you have Russia. Despite all the geopolitical chaos and the ongoing "war-risk" insurance hikes for Black Sea shipping, they are still pumping out massive amounts of wheat. The USDA actually raised the Russian production forecast this month. It turns out that even with sanctions and shipping drama, if you have enough wheat, you’ll find a way to get it onto a boat.
Why local prices feel different
If you're a producer in Ontario or a buyer in the UK, "today's price" feels different than the CBOT ticker. In Ontario, cash bids for Soft Red Winter wheat are sitting around $6.49 - $6.50 CAD.
That sounds better until you realize it’s barely covering the cost of production for many guys.
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The UK is seeing a similar struggle. Feed wheat futures in London (May-26) actually fell recently to about £169 per tonne. There’s a lot of grain in the world, and buyers know it. They aren't in a hurry to lock in big orders because they suspect prices might have a little more room to slide if the spring weather looks good.
What to Watch in the Coming Weeks
Market analysts like Jerry Klassen and the folks over at StoneX are keeping a close eye on the "La Niña" transition.
Historically, La Niña brings warmer, drier weather to the US Southern Plains. If that happens this spring, the 2026 crop could be in trouble before it even really gets going. That’s the "upside risk." If the fields start looking like dust bowls in March, that $5.10 price will be a distant memory.
But for today? It’s a buyer’s market.
We are also seeing a massive "crush" happening in the soybean world, which indirectly affects wheat. When farmers see better returns on corn or beans, they plant less wheat. We're already seeing US winter wheat acreage hovering around 45 million acres—not exactly a massive expansion.
Actionable Insights for Wheat Buyers and Sellers
If you are trying to navigate these prices, don't just stare at the screen. Here is what actually matters for your bottom line:
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For Farmers/Sellers:
- Set your "good enough" targets. Don't wait for $7 wheat that might not come. If you see a bump toward $5.50 on a weather scare, that might be your best exit for the old crop.
- Watch the basis. The difference between the futures price and your local elevator price is wild right now. If the basis tightens, grab it.
For Buyers/Processors:
- Don't over-hedge. With global stocks rising, there’s no immediate reason to panic-buy.
- Diversify origins. If US prices are sticky, look at the Argentinian or European offers. The EU maize balance is currently favoring maize prices over wheat, which is creating some weird substitution patterns in feed rations.
For Investors:
- Keep an eye on the Black Sea. Any escalation in port attacks usually results in a 10-20 cent "pop" in Chicago. It’s often short-lived, but it’s the only thing providing volatility in an otherwise boring market.
The price of wheat today tells a story of a world that is very well-fed but very poorly paid. We’ve moved past the "scarcity" phase of 2022 and 2023 and into a phase of "overabundance." Unless the weather takes a turn for the worse in the next 60 days, expect these numbers to keep grinding sideways.
To get the most out of this market, your next move should be to pull the local basis sheets for your specific region and compare them against the $5.10 CBOT baseline to see if your local market is over or under-valuing the current supply.