If you’ve been looking at the price of nickel per lb lately, you’ve probably noticed it feels a bit like riding a wooden roller coaster in the dark. One day you're climbing up on some news about Indonesian supply quotas, and the next, you’re plunging because a warehouse in Singapore suddenly found a mountain of extra bags.
As of January 16, 2026, the market is sitting at roughly $7.84 per lb. To put that in perspective for the big-picture folks, that’s about $17,283 per metric ton. It’s a far cry from the wild days of 2022 when prices briefly broke the internet (and the LME’s nerves), but honestly, it’s a lot more "stable" now—if you can call a 4% daily drop stable.
Why should you care? Because nickel is basically the secret sauce in everything from the stainless steel fork you used for breakfast to the high-performance battery in that EV you’ve been eyeing.
Why the Price of Nickel per lb is Such a Moving Target
The thing about nickel is that it’s caught between two worlds. On one side, you have the old-school stainless steel industry. These guys still gobble up about 70% of the world’s supply. When construction in China slows down or manufacturing in Europe hits a snag, the price feels it immediately.
Then you have the "new energy" side.
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Electric vehicle (EV) batteries, specifically the high-nickel ones like NMC 811 (that’s nickel-manganese-cobalt), are the reason everyone started hoarding this metal a few years back. The logic was simple: more nickel equals more range. But then something happened. Manufacturers started getting smart—or maybe just cheap—and began shifting toward LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries. Those don't use any nickel at all.
This tug-of-war is exactly why the price of nickel per lb hasn't just rocketed to the moon.
The Indonesia Factor
You can't talk about nickel without talking about Indonesia. They are the 800-pound gorilla in the room. Or maybe more like a 2-million-ton gorilla.
Indonesia currently produces a massive chunk of the global supply, but they’ve been playing it close to the vest with their production quotas, known as RKABs. Just this month, there's been a lot of chatter because the government signaled they might cut 2026 output by as much as 34% compared to previous targets.
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- Supply side: Tightening quotas in Jakarta usually sends prices up.
- The Reality: There is still a persistent global surplus.
- The Stockpiles: LME warehouses are currently holding over 285,000 tonnes.
When you have that much metal sitting in warehouses, it acts like a wet blanket on any price rally. Even if supply from mines slows down, there’s plenty of "shadow stock" to fill the gaps.
Market Realities: Looking at the 2026 Forecast
Most analysts, including the team over at Sumitomo Metal Mining, are predicting that we’re staying in a surplus for at least the rest of 2026. We're looking at a projected surplus of about 256,000 metric tons.
Basically, we are producing more nickel than we can use right now.
That doesn't mean the price of nickel per lb is going to zero. Not even close. There’s a psychological floor around $17,000 per tonne ($7.70 per lb). Below that, a lot of high-cost mines (especially the ones in Australia or Canada) start losing money and just shut down. We saw this happen throughout 2024 and 2025. When the price gets too low, the supply "self-corrects" because companies simply can't afford to dig it out of the ground.
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Real-World Price Comparison (LME Cash Settlement)
| Date | Price per Metric Ton | Approx. Price per lb |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | $17,905 | $8.12 |
| Jan 16, 2026 | $17,283 | $7.84 |
| Dec 2025 (Avg) | $15,350 | $6.96 |
As you can see, we actually had a decent little "New Year's rally" before this recent pullback. Traders were worried about those Indonesian quotas, but once the actual inventory data hit the screens this morning, the hype cooled off.
What Most People Get Wrong About Nickel Prices
People tend to think of nickel as one single thing. It isn't.
There’s Class 1 nickel, which is the high-purity stuff (99.8%) that trades on the London Metal Exchange. Then there’s Class 2, like Nickel Pig Iron (NPI), which is used for stainless steel.
For a long time, these were two different markets. But Chinese companies like Tsingshan figured out a way to turn the "cheap" Class 2 stuff into high-purity matte that can be used for batteries. This "bridge" between the two types of nickel changed the game. It’s the main reason the price of nickel per lb didn't stay at $20 forever. The supply of "battery-ready" nickel isn't as rare as we once thought.
Moving Forward: Actionable Insights for 2026
If you’re an investor or someone running a business that depends on these materials, don't get distracted by the daily noise. Here is how to actually play this:
- Watch the RKAB Approvals: Keep a very close eye on the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. If they delay those mining approvals further into Q1 2026, expect a sharp, short-term spike in the price of nickel per lb.
- Monitor LME Inventory Levels: If you see the 285k tonne stockpile start to drop toward 200k, that’s your signal that demand is finally catching up to supply. Until then, the upside is capped.
- Hedge Your Stainless Costs: If you're a manufacturer, the current price in the $7.80 range is historically reasonable. It’s significantly lower than the $10+ peaks we’ve seen in the last few years. Locking in supply contracts at these levels isn't a bad move.
- Battery Tech Shifts: Don't bet the farm on high-nickel batteries being the only game in town. The rise of LFP and even sodium-ion batteries means nickel’s "monopoly" on the EV world is fading.
Honestly, the era of "nickel scarcity" is over for now. We’ve entered the era of "nickel efficiency." The market has plenty of metal; it’s just a matter of who can process it the cheapest and most sustainably. Keep your eyes on the Indonesian quota news—that’s the only thing likely to break this current trading range.