If you’re looking at your energy bill or watching the ticker today, January 14, 2026, you've probably noticed things are getting a bit weird. Markets are twitchy. The price of natural gas today is hovering around $3.41 per MMBtu for the benchmark Henry Hub futures. It’s a slight dip from yesterday’s settlement, but don't let that fool you. We are currently in the middle of a massive tug-of-war between a freezing cold snap and a massive supply of "dry gas" that's keeping a lid on a total price explosion.
Honestly, it's a bit of a mess. Just a few weeks ago, prices were tumbling toward $3.00 because everyone thought the winter would be a "bust" with mild temperatures. Then, the weather flipped.
Why the Price of Natural Gas Today is So Volatile
The market is reacting to a cocktail of variables that change by the hour. First, you've got the weather. It sounds simple, but it’s the biggest needle-mover. Forecasters just added more "heating degree days" (the industry term for "it's going to be freezing") to the late-January outlook. When the thermometer drops in Boston or Chicago, the demand for residential and commercial heating spikes, and traders start buying up Feb 2026 contracts like crazy.
Then there's the storage situation. According to the latest EIA data from the start of the month, we have about 3,256 Bcf (billion cubic feet) in the ground. That sounds like a lot—and it's actually 1% above the five-year average—but we are drawing it down fast. Last week alone, we pulled 119 Bcf out of storage to keep the lights on.
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The Regional Reality Check
If you think $3.41 is the whole story, you're only seeing the surface. Natural gas prices are notoriously regional. While the Henry Hub (the big Louisiana hub) stays steady, look at what happened at the Algonquin Citygate serving Boston. Prices there have swung from over $18.00/MMBtu down to $5.95 as pipeline constraints ease and tighten. If you're in the Northeast, you aren't paying the "today price" you see on the news; you're paying the "local bottleneck price."
- Henry Hub (Louisiana): $3.41/MMBtu
- Dutch TTF (Europe): ~$31.13/MWh (roughly $9.70–$10.00/MMBtu)
- Chicago Citygate: ~$2.70/MMBtu
Europe is in a different boat entirely. Their prices at the Dutch TTF hub surged nearly 3% yesterday because of nuclear outages and geopolitical jitters. They are still trading way higher than the U.S., which is why we are shipping every molecule of LNG (liquefied natural gas) we can get onto a tanker.
The 2026 Outlook: Why This Year Feels Different
Last year was all about oversupply. This year, 2026, is what analysts like Ian Nieboer at Enverus are calling a "year of recalibration." We are seeing three massive new export terminals—Plaquemines LNG, Corpus Christi Stage 3, and Golden Pass—ramping up. These facilities are basically giant vacuums sucking gas off the domestic market and freezing it to send overseas.
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Basically, the U.S. is becoming the world's gas station.
But there’s a catch. Even though demand is rising, our production is hitting record levels too. We’re pumping nearly 109 billion cubic feet per day, mostly out of the Permian Basin in Texas and the Marcellus in Appalachia. This is why, even with a cold snap, we haven't seen $10 gas like we did years ago. The supply is just too massive.
Misconceptions About Your Bill
A lot of people think that if the price of natural gas today drops by 10%, their utility bill will follow next week. It doesn't work like that. Utilities "hedge" their costs. They bought the gas you’re burning today months ago, often at higher prices. You’re essentially paying for their past decisions, not today’s spot market fluctuations.
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Surprising Factors Driving the Market Right Now
- The AI Power Demand: Data centers are no longer a "future" problem; they are a today problem. Grid operators are struggling to forecast how much gas-fired power these centers need to keep the AI models running.
- Mexican Exports: We are sending a steady 6.4 Bcf/d south of the border. Mexico’s growing industrial base is becoming a permanent fixture in our demand stack.
- Pipeline Maintenance: It’s boring, but it matters. An "Operational Flow Order" on a pipe like Algonquin can double prices in a city overnight, regardless of what the national average says.
The EIA recently lowered their Q1 2026 forecast to an average of $3.38/MMBtu. That's a huge drop from their previous guess of $4.35. Why? Because the start of January was much milder than expected, and that "lost" demand is hard to make up for, even with the current cold wave.
What You Should Do Next
If you are a business owner or a homeowner looking to manage energy costs, the current market suggests a "wait and see" approach for long-term contracts. We are in a period of high volatility but overall "constructive" supply.
Actionable Steps:
- Monitor the Weekly Storage Report: Every Thursday at 10:30 AM ET, the EIA drops the storage numbers. If the "drawdown" is bigger than 150 Bcf, expect prices to jump on Friday.
- Check Local "Basis" Spreads: If you’re in a cold climate, ignore the Henry Hub price. Look for your local "Citygate" price to understand what your utility is actually facing.
- Watch the LNG Feedgas: Keep an eye on flows to terminals like Sabine Pass. If they drop due to maintenance, that gas stays in the U.S. and drives our prices down.
The "cheap gas" era isn't over, but the days of $2.00 flat-lining are likely behind us as we link our prices more closely to the global market.