If you pulled up to a Chevron in Modesto this morning, you probably saw something like $3.91 on the sign. Not bad, right? Especially when you consider that drivers in Napa are currently staring down $4.39 for the same gallon of regular. Honestly, the price of gas in California today is a tale of two states. While the rest of the country is enjoying a national average that hasn't been this low since the early days of 2021, Californians are stuck in a weird, anxious holding pattern.
The statewide average sits at $4.21 per gallon as of January 15, 2026.
That is roughly $1.37 higher than what the average American is paying right now. It's a massive gap. You've probably felt that pinch in your wallet for years, but the current situation is actually "cheap" compared to what's coming down the pike. We are currently in the eye of the storm before a massive shift in how California gets its fuel.
The Looming Refinery Crisis: Why Gas Prices in California Today Are the "Good Old Days"
Most people don't realize that California is basically an "energy island." Because of the state's hyper-strict environmental standards, we can't just pipe in gas from Texas or Louisiana. It has to be mixed here. This means when a refinery goes down, prices don't just tick up—they explode.
Right now, we are looking at a double-whammy that is making energy experts like those at UC Davis extremely nervous.
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- Phillips 66 Wilmington Closure: This massive refinery in Los Angeles is officially winding down operations.
- Valero Benicia Shutdown: This facility in Northern California is slated to close its doors in April 2026.
Basically, we are about to lose 17% to 20% of our total in-state refining capacity. Experts like Bulat Gafarov, an assistant professor at UC Davis, have warned that once these closures are fully realized, we could see a permanent increase of $1.21 per gallon over the current market rate. That would push the average price of gas in California today from "manageable" to "historic" almost overnight.
Breaking Down the Numbers by Region
You'll find that where you live matters just as much as what you drive. Here is a look at what people are paying across the state this week:
- Los Angeles-Long Beach: The average is hovering around $4.35. It's always a bit higher here due to high demand and local taxes.
- The Central Valley: This is usually the "budget" zone. In Modesto, you're looking at $3.91, while Fresno sits slightly higher at $4.10.
- The North Coast: If you're filling up in San Luis Obispo, be prepared for sticker shock. It's currently one of the most expensive metros in the lower 48, often rivaling Hawaii's prices at $4.43.
- Oakland & The Bay: The average is holding steady at $4.19, but that varies wildly if you cross the bridge into San Francisco.
The $8.43 Per Gallon Warning: Is it Real or Scare Tactics?
You might have seen the headlines floating around social media. State Senator Brian Jones has been sounding a pretty loud alarm, citing a report from USC Professor Michael Mische. The report suggests that under the worst-case scenario—volatile crude prices mixed with the loss of these refineries—we could see prices hit $8.43 per gallon by the end of 2026.
Is that actually going to happen?
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Maybe. Honestly, it depends on whether the state allows more imports or provides tax credits to keep the remaining refineries running. Crude oil is currently sitting around $60 a barrel, which is helping keep things stable for now. But if a geopolitical flare-up happens in the Middle East while our own refineries are offline, that $8 forecast starts looking a lot less like a scare tactic and more like a mathematical reality.
Why Is It So Much More Expensive Here?
It's not just one thing. It's a "perfect storm" of policy and geography.
First, there’s the California Gas Tax. As of right now, you're paying roughly 60 cents per gallon just in state excise tax. Then there’s the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). The state recently ratcheted up these rules to meet climate goals, which adds another 5 to 9 cents to every gallon.
Then you've got the Winter vs. Summer Blend. In the summer, California requires a special "boutique" blend of gas that doesn't evaporate as easily in the heat. It's better for the air but much harder to produce. We are currently on the "winter blend," which is cheaper. That’s why the price of gas in California today feels somewhat tolerable. When the switch happens in the spring, expect an automatic jump of 15 to 25 cents.
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Actionable Steps for California Drivers
Waiting for the government to fix the refinery issue isn't a strategy. You've got to play the game with the tools available right now.
Use Warehouse Clubs (Wisely)
Costco and Sam’s Club are consistently 20 to 40 cents cheaper than the name-brand stations across the street. If you're in a high-cost area like Napa or San Diego, the membership pays for itself in about three fill-ups.
Track the "Spread"
Download an app like GasBuddy or use Google Maps to check prices before you leave. The "spread"—the difference between the cheapest and most expensive station in a 5-mile radius—is often as high as 70 cents in California. Just driving two blocks further can save you $10 on a full tank.
The Cash Discount Hack
Many independent stations in the Central Valley (like those in Merced or Hanford) offer a 10-cent discount if you pay in cash. It’s a bit of a hassle, but it’s the quickest way to beat the tax increases.
Monitor the April Deadline
Keep a very close eye on the news regarding the Valero refinery in Benicia this April. If that closure happens on schedule without a plan to increase imports from Washington or Asia, we will likely see the biggest single-month price spike in California history. Plan your spring travel accordingly.
The reality of the price of gas in California today is that we are living in a period of artificial calm. Enjoy the $4.21 average while it lasts, because the structural changes hitting our supply chain this year are going to make the "expensive" prices of the past look like a bargain.