You’ve seen the tickers. You’ve probably seen the headlines about "oil giants" and "record profits." But if you’re looking at the price of exxon mobil stock today, around $129.23, you're only seeing a tiny sliver of a much larger, weirder story.
Most people think Exxon (XOM) just follows the price of oil like a shadow. It doesn't. Not exactly.
Honestly, the relationship is kinda messy. While crude oil has been taking a beating—Brent futures actually dropped about 19% through 2025—Exxon’s stock hasn't just flatlined. It’s been resilient. In fact, as of January 15, 2026, the stock is trading near its 52-week high of $131.72. How does a company that pulls stuff out of the ground stay so expensive when the stuff they pull out is getting cheaper?
The answer isn't in the oil. It’s in the math.
Why the price of exxon mobil stock defies the "Oil Slump"
Basically, Exxon has spent the last few years turning itself into a giant cash machine that doesn't care quite as much about $60 oil as it used to. They’ve been slashing "structural costs"—corporate speak for firing people and closing inefficient offices—to the tune of **$20 billion** since 2019.
When you cut that much fat, you can survive a leaner market.
But there’s a massive elephant in the room right now: Venezuela.
Just a few days ago, CEO Darren Woods sat down with President Trump. The topic? Going back into Venezuela. If you remember, Exxon got kicked out years ago by Hugo Chávez. Now, there’s talk of a $2 billion arbitration claim and potential new drilling. But Woods hasn't been shy. He called the country "uninvestable" without serious legal changes.
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The market hates uncertainty, but it loves a "maybe."
The price of exxon mobil stock reacted to this drama with a bit of a wobble, but the underlying strength is coming from the Permian Basin and Guyana. Guyana is essentially Exxon's golden goose. They're pulling oil out of the water there at costs so low it makes the rest of the industry look like they're digging for gold with plastic spoons.
The Q4 2025 earnings warning
Don't get too comfortable, though. Exxon just dropped an SEC filing that should make any investor squint.
They expect lower crude prices to shave up to $1.2 billion off their upstream earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025. That’s a huge hit. Natural gas isn't helping much either, with potential drags of up to $300 million.
Despite this, the stock price holds. Why?
- Asset Sales: They’re selling off the "boring" stuff. This added about $600 million to $800 million to the books last quarter.
- Refining Margins: While drilling for oil is getting less profitable, turning it into gasoline and chemicals (downstream) is still doing okay.
- The Dividend: It’s the "safety blanket" for investors. Currently, the yield is sitting around 3.18%.
If you're a retiree or a "Steady Eddie" investor, you don't care if the price of oil drops $5. You care if the dividend check clears. Exxon has made it a point of pride to never miss one.
Is the current price actually "Fair"?
Wall Street is currently split down the middle. Some analysts, like the ones over at Simply Wall St, use a "Discounted Cash Flow" model. This is basically a fancy way of guessing what all of Exxon's future profits are worth in today's dollars. Their math puts the "fair value" at a whopping $182.58.
That would mean the stock is trading at a 28% discount.
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But then you look at the bears. They’re worried about a "structural oil oversupply." If the world keeps pumping more than it uses, even Guyana’s cheap oil won't save the stock from a slow slide. Some analysts have a minimum price target of $115.00 for the next year.
That's a wide gap. $115 vs $182.
What usually happens is the truth lands somewhere in the middle. Exxon is currently trading at a P/E ratio of about 18.7. That’s higher than competitors like BP or Shell, who often trade in the 11-13 range. You’re paying a "premium" for Exxon because people trust their management more.
What to watch for on January 30
The big day is Friday, January 30, 2026.
That’s when the official Q4 2025 numbers come out. Analysts are looking for an adjusted profit of about $1.66 per share. If they beat that, expect the price of exxon mobil stock to finally crack that $132 ceiling. If they miss, or if Darren Woods gives a grumpy update on the Venezuela situation, we might see a retreat back to the $125 level.
Also, watch for the "buyback" numbers. Exxon has been spending about $20 billion a year just buying its own shares. It's a massive support level. If they announce they’re slowing down the buybacks to save cash, the stock will feel it instantly.
Real-world moves for your portfolio
Don't just stare at the chart. Here is what's actually happening on the ground.
Exxon is moving fast into "Advanced Recycling" and low-carbon projects. They recently had EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin touring their Baytown operations. This isn't just PR; it’s a hedge. If oil demand eventually peaks, they want to be the ones selling the chemicals and carbon capture tech that everyone else needs.
If you’re holding XOM, the smart play isn't trying to time the $2 fluctuations. It's watching the "margin of safety." With the stock at $129, you aren't getting a "steal," but you are getting a company that is vastly more efficient than it was five years ago.
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Actionable Next Steps
- Check the Yield: If you’re buying for income, ensure the dividend yield stays above 3%. If the stock price shoots to $150 and the dividend doesn't rise, the "value" proposition changes.
- Monitor the Brent/WTI Spread: Exxon’s international operations (Guyana) rely on Brent pricing. If Brent falls faster than US-based WTI, Exxon’s advantage narrows.
- Read the Q4 Transcript (Jan 30): Specifically, look for mentions of "capital discipline." If they start spending too much on new projects (CapEx), it usually means less money for buybacks.
- Watch Venezuela: Any "Handshake" deal between Trump and Woods regarding South American drilling will act as a massive catalyst for the price of exxon mobil stock, regardless of what the earnings say.
The reality of 2026 is that Exxon is no longer just an oil company. It's a massive, diversified energy and chemical conglomerate that just happens to use oil as its primary raw material. That distinction is why the stock is holding steady while the commodity markets are screaming.