Corn prices are a mess right now. If you’re checking the ticker and seeing red, you aren’t alone in your confusion. As of today, January 18, 2026, the price of corn today is sitting around $4.24 to $4.25 per bushel for the March 2026 futures contract (ZCH26) at the Chicago Board of Trade.
It’s been a rough week.
Honestly, just a few days ago, people were hopeful. Then Monday happened. The USDA dropped their January WASDE report, and it felt like a bucket of ice water to the face of the agricultural market. We went from "maybe things are stabilizing" to "oh, we have way too much corn" in about thirty seconds.
The price dropped roughly 25 to 26 cents almost immediately after that report hit the wires. We are currently hovering just above the 52-week low of $4.10. If we break that, things could get really ugly for growers.
What's Driving the Price of Corn Today?
You’d think a record-breaking crop would be a good thing, right? Well, for a farmer’s wallet, it’s usually the opposite. The big shocker in the latest data was that the U.S. produced a staggering 17.02 billion bushels of corn in the 2025/26 cycle.
That is a lot of grain.
Nobody saw it coming—or at least, not at this scale. Most analysts were betting the USDA would actually cut the yield estimates because of disease pressure in parts of the central Corn Belt, like Iowa. Instead, the government raised the national average yield to 186.5 bushels per acre.
Basically, while Iowa might have struggled, places like South Dakota and Minnesota absolutely crushed it.
The Acreage Surprise
It wasn’t just the yield. The harvested acreage numbers jumped up to 91.3 million acres.
Why? Because the silage bunkers were already full. When the bunkers are overflowing, farmers don't need to chop more corn for feed; they just leave it in the field to be harvested as grain. This added about 200 million bushels to the supply that the market wasn't expecting.
More supply + same demand = lower prices. It’s Econ 101, but it feels a lot more personal when you’re looking at your storage bins.
Cash Prices vs. Futures
If you’re looking to actually sell physical corn at the local elevator today, you aren't seeing $4.25.
Cash prices are significantly lower. In many parts of the Midwest, like Wisconsin or Illinois, the national average cash corn price is closer to $3.70 to $3.83.
The "basis"—which is just the difference between the local cash price and the Chicago futures price—is pretty wide right now. It's sitting around 37 to 40 cents under the March contract in many areas. Elevators don't have much incentive to pay a premium when there is an "avalanche" of corn waiting to be moved.
The Global Tug-of-War
We aren't the only ones growing corn. Brazil is lurking.
Right now, U.S. corn has a bit of an edge in the global market because our prices are low. But that advantage is starting to disappear. Brazil’s second-crop safrinha corn is getting planted, and if their weather holds up, they’ll start undercutting our prices by March or April.
We’re essentially in a price war with South America.
- Exports: U.S. sales are actually up 29% compared to last year, which is the "silver lining" everyone is talking about.
- Biofuels: There’s talk of the administration increasing biodiesel mandates for 2026, which could help soak up some of this excess supply.
- Geopolitics: The war in Ukraine is still a wild card for fertilizer costs, which makes this $4.24 price point even harder to stomach for farmers who paid through the nose for nitrogen.
What Most People Get Wrong About Corn Prices
A lot of folks think that if the price of corn drops, their box of cereal gets cheaper the next day.
It doesn't work like that.
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Corn is an input for literally everything—fuel (ethanol), meat (feed), and thousands of grocery items. But the "corn" part of a $6 box of cornflakes is only worth a few cents. The real impact of the price of corn today is felt by the producers and the livestock industry first. For cattle and hog farmers, these lower prices are actually a bit of a relief, as their feed costs finally start to come down.
What to Watch Next
The market is currently "oversold," according to technical analysts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 30, which often means we might see a small "dead cat bounce" or a corrective rally soon.
However, don't expect a moonshot. With ending stocks projected at 2.2 billion bushels—the highest since 2018—there is a massive ceiling on how high these prices can go.
If you are holding grain in the bin, the next 60 days are critical. Watch for any weather scares in Brazil. That is the only thing likely to spark a real rally before U.S. planting season begins in the spring.
Actionable Steps for Producers and Investors
- Review your break-even: With the USDA projecting a marketing year average of $4.10, you need to know exactly what it costs you to put a bushel in the bin.
- Watch the $4.10 support level: If March futures close below $4.10, the next stop could be $4.00.
- Consider "Hedge-to-Arrive" contracts: Some experts are suggesting that even at $4.50 for December 2026 corn, it might be worth locking in some protection before more supply hits the market.
- Monitor the soybean-to-corn ratio: Right now, the price signal is telling farmers to plant fewer corn acres and more beans in 2026. If enough people switch, we might see a price floor form by early summer.
The market is currently hunting for "fair value," and it's doing it in a very aggressive way. Stay disciplined with your marketing plan and avoid making emotional trades based on a single day's red candles.