If you were refreshing a polling dashboard on the night of November 5, 2024, you probably felt like you were watching a slow-motion car crash. The "experts" were talking about a "margin of error" race. They were whispering about a "blue wall" that might hold by the skin of its teeth. But if you were looking at the presidential race betting odds 2024, the story was already over before the first exit poll hit the airwaves.
Basically, the money was louder than the talking heads.
While Nate Silver and the crew at 538 were giving Kamala Harris a roughly 50/50 shot—some models even had her at a 56% edge—the prediction markets were leaning heavily into a Trump victory weeks in advance. By the time the sun came up on Wednesday, Donald Trump had secured 312 electoral votes to Harris’s 226. He even grabbed the popular vote with 49.8% compared to her 48.3%.
It wasn't just a win; it was a sweep of all seven swing states. And honestly, the bettors saw it coming.
The Polymarket Phenomenon: $3.3 Billion on the Line
You've likely heard of Polymarket by now. It’s this crypto-based prediction platform that basically became the "Source of Truth" for people tired of traditional media. In 2024, the presidential race became the most active market in its history. We’re talking over $3.3 billion wagered just on the outcome of the Trump vs. Harris showdown.
Think about that. $3.3 billion. That is a lot of skin in the game.
📖 Related: NIES: What Most People Get Wrong About the National Institute for Environmental Studies
What's wild is how sensitive these odds were to real-world chaos. When Joe Biden had that disastrous debate performance on June 27, his odds of staying in the race plummeted. Polymarket traders were already pricing in a 70% chance of him withdrawing weeks before he actually stepped aside on July 21.
Then came the "French Whale."
In October, everyone started freaking out because the odds on Polymarket spiked to 60% for Trump while other sites like PredictIt were still showing a dead heat at 51%. The Wall Street Journal reported that a single entity was dumping $30 million into Trump bets. People cried "market manipulation!" but it turned out to be a guy named Théo, a former bank trader who just really liked his data. He walked away with **$85 million** in profit. Talk about a good day at the office.
Comparing the Giants: Polymarket vs. PredictIt vs. Kalshi
Not all betting sites are created equal. You’ve got different rules, different users, and different vibes.
Polymarket is the big dog, but it’s technically offshore for U.S. traders (though plenty of people used VPNs, let's be real). It’s decentralized and handles massive volume, which generally makes the odds more "efficient." By mid-October, they were the most bullish on Trump.
👉 See also: Middle East Ceasefire: What Everyone Is Actually Getting Wrong
PredictIt is the more "academic" version based in New Zealand. They have a $850 cap on individual bets to keep things from getting too crazy. Because of that cap, the odds often lagged behind the "whale-driven" markets. On November 4, PredictIt still had the race much closer than the crypto markets did.
Kalshi is the new kid on the block that fought a legal battle with the CFTC just to exist. They finally got the green light to let Americans bet on elections legally on U.S. soil. Their odds generally tracked closer to Polymarket, showing a clear Trump edge (around 54% to 46%) in the final 48 hours.
Why the Odds Beat the Polls (Again)
Polls ask people who they want to win. Betting markets ask people who they think will win.
There’s a massive difference there. It’s called the "Wisdom of Crowds." When you’re forced to put your own hard-earned cash on the line, you tend to check your bias at the door. You look at the early voting data in Nevada. You look at the registration shifts in Pennsylvania. You don't care about the "vibes"—you care about the math.
- Real-time Reaction: When a candidate says something stupid at a rally, the odds move in seconds. Polls take five days to "cook" the data and release a report.
- The "Shy" Voter Factor: Betting markets don't care if you're embarrassed to tell a pollster you're voting for Trump. The money is anonymous.
- Information Aggregation: Traders are looking at everything: weather reports, gas prices, even how many people are showing up to local rallies.
For instance, after the first assassination attempt on Trump in Butler, PA, on July 13, his win probability jumped immediately. The polls didn't reflect that kind of movement for nearly a week.
✨ Don't miss: Michael Collins of Ireland: What Most People Get Wrong
What Most People Get Wrong About Betting Odds
A lot of people think betting odds are a "prediction" of the future. They aren't. They are a reflection of the current "price" of information.
Just because a candidate has a 60% chance of winning doesn't mean they will win. It means if you played this election 100 times, they’d win 60 of them. In 2024, the markets were "right" in the sense that they correctly identified the favorite, but they weren't psychic. They missed on things too—like when they thought Josh Shapiro was a lock (68% odds) for Harris's VP pick, only for her to choose Tim Walz the next day.
Markets are smart, but they aren't infallible.
Practical Takeaways for the Next Cycle
If you’re looking at these numbers for future races, keep a few things in mind. First, follow the volume. A market with $10,000 in it is a joke. A market with $3 billion in it is a serious financial indicator.
Second, look for "divergence." When Polymarket is screaming one thing and the New York Times is saying another, that’s where the real story usually hides. In 2024, that gap was the clearest sign that a Trump victory was more likely than the "toss-up" narrative suggested.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Track Multiple Sources: Don't just trust one site. Use an aggregator like ElectionBettingOdds.com to see the average across PredictIt, Polymarket, and Betfair.
- Watch the Swing States: The national "Winner" market is flashy, but the real money is made (and the real truth is found) in the individual state markets for Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
- Ignore the Outliers: If you see a massive spike in odds without any news, it’s probably just a "whale" trying to move the price. Wait for the volume to stabilize.
The 2024 race changed how we watch elections. The era of waiting for the 11 PM news is over. From now on, the most accurate "poll" is the one you have to pay to enter.