Checking the headlines lately feels like a fever dream, doesn't it? We’re barely a year into Donald Trump’s second term, and yet the "horse race" for 2028 is already everywhere. Honestly, it’s a bit much. People are constantly searching for presidential polls who is winning, but looking at a 2028 poll in early 2026 is like trying to predict the weather for next Christmas.
Things are messy right now. Between the recent capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and the bizarre, ongoing drama about the U.S. trying to "take control" of Greenland, the political landscape is shifting under our feet every single week.
The Current Approval Trap
Right now, if you want to know "who is winning," you have to look at the guy currently in the chair. It isn't looking great for the incumbent. According to a recent Chatham House report from January 5, 2026, President Trump’s approval rating has taken a significant hit since his 2024 victory. He won with 49.8% of the popular vote, but by early this year, that number has slipped to around 39% or 41% depending on which pollster you trust.
Partisanship is basically a brick wall at this point. 91% of Republicans are still on board, but only about 6% of Democrats. That 85-point gap is the kind of thing that makes Thanksgiving dinner impossible.
The real story, though, isn't about the two parties. It's about the people who hate both. Gallup just dropped a bombshell on January 12, 2026, showing that a record-high 45% of Americans now identify as Independents. People are tired. They're looking for an "off-ramp," as Nebraska Congressman Don Bacon recently put it when discussing the Greenland situation.
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2028: The Names You Keep Hearing
Even though the election is years away, the "Early Look" polls are coming in thick and fast. If you’re tracking presidential polls who is winning for the next cycle, the University of New Hampshire’s Granite State Poll from late October 2025 gives us the best snapshot of the current frontrunners.
On the Republican side, JD Vance is the undisputed heavyweight. He’s sitting at 51% support in early New Hampshire primary polling. That is a massive lead. Compare that to Nikki Haley at 9% or Tulsi Gabbard at 8%, and you see why the VP is currently the heir apparent. He has a net favorability of +64 among GOP voters. People like him. Or at least, the people who vote in Republican primaries really like him.
The Democratic side is a total "choose your own adventure" book. It’s a traffic jam at the top.
- Pete Buttigieg: 19%
- Gavin Newsom: 15%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 14%
- Kamala Harris: 11%
It’s a three-way tie for first place, basically. Buttigieg has the highest favorability (81% among Democrats), but AOC has a death grip on the "socialist" and "progressive" wings of the party. It’s going to be a scrap.
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Why the 2026 Midterms are the Real "Poll"
If you actually care about who is winning, ignore the 2028 stuff for a second and look at the generic congressional ballot for 2026. This is the midterm year. This is the "vibes check" for the country.
The data is pretty startling. Marist and RealClearPolitics both show Democrats with a lead. In fact, Marist has Democrats up by 14 points on the generic ballot among registered voters. That is a "tsunami" level margin. Voters say their top priority is lowering prices (57%), and they don't seem convinced the current administration is doing it.
What Most People Get Wrong
We get obsessed with the "who." Who is winning? Who is running?
But the "what" is actually driving the "who." In Texas—a state that usually isn't this dramatic—a January 2026 Emerson poll shows James Talarico leading the Democratic primary for Senate, while the Republican side is a civil war between incumbent John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. They're actually tied at 26% and 27%. When the "red" states start having messy primaries like that, it tells you the national polls are hiding a lot of local chaos.
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The "Greenland" effect is real too. Most Americans—overwhelmingly so—oppose the idea of seizing the territory. When a president starts talking about things that feel "absurd" (Senator Thom Tillis's words, not mine), the middle-of-the-road voters start looking at the exit door.
Actionable Insights for the Savvy Follower
Stop looking at "Head-to-Head" 2028 polls. They are useless right now. If you see a poll saying "Newsom vs. Vance," ignore it. It’s fan fiction.
Instead, watch these three things:
- The Price of Milk and Gas: 57% of people say "lowering prices" is the only thing they care about. If inflation doesn't stay down, the incumbent party usually loses the House in November.
- Special Election Results: Keep an eye on the special elections in Georgia’s 14th and California’s 1st. These are "safe" Republican seats, but if the margins tighten, the "blue wave" predictions for 2026 might be real.
- The Independent Surge: With 45% of the country refusing to join a party, the winner is whoever manages to look the "least crazy" to a person who hates politics.
Basically, the "winner" right now is "None of the Above." The Democrats have the momentum for the midterms, JD Vance has the momentum for the 2028 GOP nomination, and the American public has a massive headache.
Keep your eyes on the generic ballot aggregates (like Decision Desk HQ or 51PlusOne) rather than individual "outlier" polls. They currently show a Democratic lead of about 4.2%. That’s the number that actually matters for the next 10 months.
Next Steps for Staying Informed
- Check the Weighted Averages: Don't trust a single poll from a firm you've never heard of. Use aggregators that weight for "house effects" to see the real trend.
- Monitor the 2026 Primary Calendar: Watch the Texas and North Carolina primaries in March. They will be the first real test of whether the "anti-incumbent" mood is as strong as the polls suggest.
- Focus on Economic Sentiment: Follow the "Consumer Confidence Index" alongside the polls. Historically, they move in lockstep. If confidence drops, the party in power almost always follows.