Honestly, if you look at a map of past presidential election results, it feels like looking at a sports scoreboard from 1950. You see the wins and losses, the red and blue (though those colors haven't always meant what they mean now), and you think you get the gist. But the actual data? It’s kinda messy. It’s full of "wait, that actually happened?" moments. Like the fact that for a long time, the person who came in second just became the Vice President. Can you imagine that today? Talk about an awkward office dynamic.
When we talk about presidential election results, we're usually obsessed with the "who won" part. But the "how" and the "by how much" tell a way more interesting story about where the country was—and where it’s headed. It isn't just a list of names; it's a record of how we’ve changed our minds, shifted our priorities, and sometimes, how we just barely avoided a total breakdown of the system.
The Popular Vote vs. The Electoral College: The 5 Glitches in the Matrix
Most people think the person with the most votes wins. Simple, right? Not in the U.S. There have been five times in history where the person who won the popular vote had to pack their bags and go home because they lost the Electoral College.
It first happened in 1824. Andrew Jackson won the popular vote and the most electoral votes, but he didn’t get a majority of the electoral votes. The House of Representatives stepped in and gave the presidency to John Quincy Adams. Jackson called it a "corrupt bargain." He was pretty salty about it for four years until he came back and won the next one.
Then you have the 1876 mess with Rutherford B. Hayes and Samuel Tilden. That one was basically decided in a smoke-filled room. Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina all sent in two different sets of results. It was a nightmare.
Most of us remember 2000 (Bush v. Gore) and 2016 (Trump v. Clinton). In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million people. But because of how the votes are distributed, Donald Trump took the win with 304 electoral votes.
Why Some Elections Are Landslides and Others Are Nail-Biters
We’ve had some absolute blowouts. In 1936, Franklin D. Roosevelt won every single state except for Maine and Vermont. Basically, the whole country looked at the New Deal and said, "Yeah, let's keep doing that."
Contrast that with 1960. John F. Kennedy beat Richard Nixon by a margin so thin you could barely see it—about 0.1% of the popular vote. Or 1884, where Grover Cleveland won by about 25,000 votes out of 10 million cast.
The Real "Turnout" Problem
You’ll hear talking heads say "voter turnout is at an all-time low" or "record highs." The truth is somewhere in the middle. Back in the late 1800s, turnout was regularly above 80%. Of course, "eligible voters" back then was a much smaller, more exclusive group.
Since the 1970s, we’ve hovered around 50-60%. 2020 was a huge outlier with about 66% of the voting-eligible population showing up. That was the highest since 1900. People were motivated, sure, but mail-in voting also made it way easier.
The Certification Maze
One thing people often get wrong about presidential election results is when they actually become "official." Election night is just for the media.
- The Canvass: Local officials count every ballot (mail-in, early, provisional).
- State Certification: The Secretary of State or a board signs off on the final numbers.
- The Electors Meet: In mid-December, the actual electors meet in their states to cast their ballots.
- Congress Counts: On January 6, Congress meets in a joint session to count those votes.
It’s a long, boring process designed to have multiple "check-stops" so no one person can just flip a switch and change the outcome.
The Third-Party "Spoilers"
We like to pretend we only have two parties, but third parties have messed with the results more than a few times. In 1912, Teddy Roosevelt got mad at his own party, started the "Bull Moose" party, and actually came in second, beating the sitting president, Taft. This basically handed the win to Woodrow Wilson on a silver platter.
🔗 Read more: Michael Scanlan and Anne Marie Fahey: The Real Story Behind the Case
In 1992, Ross Perot took 19% of the popular vote. He didn't win a single state, but he definitely changed the math for George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton.
What Most People Get Wrong About "Red" and "Blue" States
We talk about California as "deep blue" and Texas as "deep red." But if you look at the raw numbers, there are more Republican voters in California than in many red states combined. In 2020, over 6 million Californians voted for Trump.
The "Winner-Take-All" rule is what creates the illusion of a divided map. If you win a state by one single vote, you get 100% of the electoral power. It’s why candidates spend all their time in Pennsylvania and Michigan and basically ignore 40 other states.
Actionable Steps for Election Data Nerds
If you actually want to understand how these results happen without the partisan spin, you've gotta look at the source material.
- Check the "Electoral College Timeline": The National Archives has a great breakdown of the exact dates when results move from "projected" to "certified."
- Look at VEP, not VAP: When checking turnout, look for "Voting Eligible Population" (VEP). "Voting Age Population" (VAP) includes people who can't vote (like non-citizens), which makes turnout look lower than it actually is.
- Follow the Paper Trail: Most states now have a paper record of every vote cast. If you're skeptical of results, look into your local "Post-Election Audit" procedures. Most states do this by law now to verify the machines worked correctly.
Understanding past results isn't just a history lesson. It’s how we spot patterns, like how "swing states" change every 20 years or how a small shift in suburban turnout can flip the entire country. The numbers are there; you just have to know which ones actually matter.
Digging Deeper into the Data
To get a real sense of the trends, look up the "Pivot Counties"—these are the places that voted for Obama twice and then flipped to Trump in 2016. They are the ultimate weather vanes for where the national mood is headed. You can find these lists on sites like Ballotpedia or the University of Florida's Election Lab.
Next Steps:
- Go to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) website to see the official, audited results for the last four cycles.
- Research your own state’s Certification Deadline to see how long your local officials have to verify the count before it goes to the Governor.
- Compare the Popular Vote Margin of 2020 to 1984 (Reagan's landslide) to see what a "mandate" actually looks like in numbers.